Best Actress Predictions - First Round

by Nathaniel R

Annette Bening as "NYAD" (Netflix, 2023)

If I had any hair, I would be tearing it out every time Best Actress predictions must be made. There are so many ways it could go. It's always fun to fantasize about but also agonizing to worry about. Oscar history is wildly hit and miss with Best Actress lineups. Sometimes it's electric quintets and other times they ignore most of the best work for a set of solid but unthrilling performances. 

The contender we're most excited / anxious about is the one and only Annette Bening in Nyad...

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International Oscars - Estonia, Germany, Netherlands, South Korea, and Uruguay

by Nathaniel R

After that first round of news, we have more info on the International Oscar race to share. First, we have three more official submissions for the upcoming race: Estonia will submit the documentary Smoke, Sauna, Sisterhood; South Korea has gone very mainstream choosing the earthquake drama Concrete Utopia  (that probably means no nomination given that the Academy generally only pays attention to South Korea when they lean auteur... and even then they don't pay much attention despite South Korea having a very healthy and respected film industry); Finally, Uruguay will submit the comedy Family Album about a father and his teenage son forming a band. 

Even if those three films don't sound right up Oscar's alley, you really never know, do you? It all depends on how the volunteer voters who screen enough of the films to vote respond to their selections. We also now know two more unofficial finalist lists from Germany and Netherlands, both of which have won the category multiple times...

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Best Supporting Actress ~ First Round Predictions

by Nathaniel R

Emily Blunt in "Oppenheimer"

So is it finally Emily Blunt's time? She's been thisclose to an Oscar nomination multiple times with other awards bodies like SAG, the Golden Globes, and BAFTA making room for her repeatedly! Somehow an Oscar nomination has never materialized even when she 1000% deserved it (hello comedic genius from The Devil Wears Prada). With the largest female role in the The Year's Biggest Prestige Drama, Oppenheimer, she may finally make the shortlist. But what if previously nominated Florence Pugh joins her in the event that a lot of movies intended for the fall don't arrive as scheduled? Despite the movies lengthy running time they both don't get as many scenes as we would have liked but that might not matter given the film and the response.

Other questions looming over the Best Supporting Actress Oscar race are after the jump.

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First Round Oscar Predictions Nearly Complete!

by Nathaniel R

Dear reader, I had planned a big article on each Oscar category as we completed this first round. Scratch that. It's best to finally get all the charts up and then dive further week by week, so we have somewhere to start from. Over at the Prediction Index you'll see that every category we guess well ahead of time is up now with more "tier 2" and "other possibilities" business on the individual category charts. Well all charts but International Feature (which we're working on) and both Actress charts. We can't throw the latter up without detailing it; It's not in our natures to give actresses short shrift!

So investigate the early predictions at your leisure. Well, don't wait too long. Things will change very soon. Calendar shifts are normal this time of year but it's likely to be even more volatile this season given the WGA/SAG strike and AMTMP's refusal to pay them anything like what they used to get paid for their work before streaming changed the entertainment landscape. Supporting Actress Chart tomorrow! 

Best Lead Actor - First Round Predictions

by Nathaniel R

Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) and Colman Domingo (Rustin) are both working the classic 'biopic' angle

As with the first round of Best Supporting Actor predictions, we're opting to pretend that the strike will be resolved in time for most of the movies that are scheduled for awards season to continue with their current plans. We use the word "pretend" because it feels increasingly likely that this awards season will be an unprecented combo of fewer than usual releases and zero celebrity campaigning. We hope the studio powers-that-be will wake from their incessant greed and learn to share the wealth with the people without whom they can't make money (actors/writers) but we're not going to hold out breath lest we asphyxiate.

On to Best Actor. This category is often heavy on biographical 'great men' roles and there's little reason to expect this year will be any different. Cillian Murphy, Colman Domingo, Bradley Cooper, Joaquin Phoenix, and Adam Driver will all potentially benefit from that tried and true awards-appeal genre...

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