Oscar Chart Updates. Our Guesswork As Of Now.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011 at 9:01PM 
How many best pictures will we have this year? Care to take a guess in the comments?
I've updated the Oscar charts though War Horse and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close are still question marks. Yes, I've seen the former but it's difficult to guess at how well it's old fashioned pastiche and one might say nearly parodic schmaltziness will play with adults and how well its length (it's long) will play with children. I talked to about 6 people at length about it after the premiere (including 2 Academy members) and I got 6 completely different opinions. So in short: consensus was nowhere to be found. It could be a massive nomination player or something that wins a couple perfunctory "you're pretty" nods.
PICTURE Hugo rockets into the top five and if it keeps up this week's pace, it could be a threat to win. We wouldn't have imagined that directly after that NYFF screening which went very well but Oscar Winner for Best Picture well? Beginners and The Tree of Life make modest gains, too.
DIRECTOR - The three living directors with the most nominations (Scorsese, Spielberg, Allen each have six nominations in this category) all could place again this year which would certainly make this statistically one of the 'most previously nominated' directorial fields ever. But this week at least, I'm guessing that Spielberg is the one who comes up short on nomination morning.
ACTOR -With Leo falling -- and he is, isn't he? -- who will benefit? Whoever keeps the heat on, that's who! Shannon, Harrelson andOldman need to keep working for it.
ACTRESS -Glenn Close is looking vulnerable for Albert Nobbs but we still think she'll pull through by way of persistence for dream project congratulatory votes. (See also: Bette Midler in For the Boys, Salma Hayek in Frida and so on... this Oscar angle has rich ancestry)
SUPP ACTOR -Plummer & Brooks continue to solidify their showbiz legend leads. Otherwise, who knows? It seems like spots 3 through 5 could get crazy if someone's campaign further down the chart finds the right hook or pockets of voter mood.
SUPP ACTRESS - Is this really Vanessa Redgrave vs. Octavia Spencer for the win? Given that Jessica Chastain has already been awarded for three different films, she probably needs to pick one right quick to get behind if she wants to find herself in the shortlist.
Another tribute for Plummer -- it's an epidemic -- was held at the New York Stage and Film 2011 Gala at The Plaza Hotel this weekend. Here's a bit from the red carpet.
FOREIGN FILM -A Separation has emerged as the real leader. But this category usually tosses aside the genius films for something easier to digest.
SCREENPLAY -Gains this week for Margin Call and Beginners.
VISUAL CATEGORIES - Hugo continues to rise. I'm now guessing it'll be the nomination leader, give or take The Artist.
AURAL CATEGORIES -Help meeeeeeeeeeeeee I'm drowning in charts must end this post now.
Oscars (11)
Reader Comments (57)
Before everyone gets excited (or not) about about a Streep win, let me remind you that the three previous times she was nominated people were predicting her victory during this phase of the game only to have her thwarted at the home stretch. As I've said before on this very site, the Academy wants to award her again but not for an "eh" film -- at least, that's my hunch. Despite the quality of her performances, I think people look at the movies themselves and think, "Yeah, but for that?" If it were another actress who's resume doesn't already include seminal works, there might be a chance, but are talking about Streep here. She is held a to a higher standard.
Troy -- i agree. I'm pretty sure Streep will win in an enormous landslide next time she makes a movie that's considered great in which she's also considered great. (unless of course she wins a 3rd right before that for something "meh".
But this GREAT within GREAT hasn't happened since, what, Adaptation? and back then she was just starting her "comeback" and didn't have "time for a third!" moment just yet.
Nate, I still think you (and most progs) are massively underestimating Dragon Tattoo. That you have zero noms for it is like, shocking. Just you wait! :)
Erik -- but i've actually seen it ;)
Nat,
When will you do a review on the Tattoo?
Thanks
The photos for Branagh and Brooks are switched.
DJDeejay, there is no need for you to back track. Your first post was spot on. To say "it's about the performance, that's it" is an incredibly naive statement. It's only half about a performance, the rest is about campaigning, likeability and so on. Some of the critics are trying to make Patton Oswalt happen, but it won't. I'm sure he was good, but he is a nobody to the Academy voters, playing a friend role in a dark comedy. That's not enough to win him a nomination over the many established actors vying for this position.