Oscar Chart Updates. Our Guesswork As Of Now.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011 at 9:01PM 
How many best pictures will we have this year? Care to take a guess in the comments?
I've updated the Oscar charts though War Horse and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close are still question marks. Yes, I've seen the former but it's difficult to guess at how well it's old fashioned pastiche and one might say nearly parodic schmaltziness will play with adults and how well its length (it's long) will play with children. I talked to about 6 people at length about it after the premiere (including 2 Academy members) and I got 6 completely different opinions. So in short: consensus was nowhere to be found. It could be a massive nomination player or something that wins a couple perfunctory "you're pretty" nods.
PICTURE Hugo rockets into the top five and if it keeps up this week's pace, it could be a threat to win. We wouldn't have imagined that directly after that NYFF screening which went very well but Oscar Winner for Best Picture well? Beginners and The Tree of Life make modest gains, too.
DIRECTOR - The three living directors with the most nominations (Scorsese, Spielberg, Allen each have six nominations in this category) all could place again this year which would certainly make this statistically one of the 'most previously nominated' directorial fields ever. But this week at least, I'm guessing that Spielberg is the one who comes up short on nomination morning.
ACTOR -With Leo falling -- and he is, isn't he? -- who will benefit? Whoever keeps the heat on, that's who! Shannon, Harrelson andOldman need to keep working for it.
ACTRESS -Glenn Close is looking vulnerable for Albert Nobbs but we still think she'll pull through by way of persistence for dream project congratulatory votes. (See also: Bette Midler in For the Boys, Salma Hayek in Frida and so on... this Oscar angle has rich ancestry)
SUPP ACTOR -Plummer & Brooks continue to solidify their showbiz legend leads. Otherwise, who knows? It seems like spots 3 through 5 could get crazy if someone's campaign further down the chart finds the right hook or pockets of voter mood.
SUPP ACTRESS - Is this really Vanessa Redgrave vs. Octavia Spencer for the win? Given that Jessica Chastain has already been awarded for three different films, she probably needs to pick one right quick to get behind if she wants to find herself in the shortlist.
Another tribute for Plummer -- it's an epidemic -- was held at the New York Stage and Film 2011 Gala at The Plaza Hotel this weekend. Here's a bit from the red carpet.
FOREIGN FILM -A Separation has emerged as the real leader. But this category usually tosses aside the genius films for something easier to digest.
SCREENPLAY -Gains this week for Margin Call and Beginners.
VISUAL CATEGORIES - Hugo continues to rise. I'm now guessing it'll be the nomination leader, give or take The Artist.
AURAL CATEGORIES -Help meeeeeeeeeeeeee I'm drowning in charts must end this post now.
Oscars (11)
Reader Comments (57)
Oh please let TREE OF LIFE score a Best Picture nom…
DIRECTING: I actually think Payne may get left out.
ACTRESS: Still thinking its gonna be Close and Mara for those last two slots.
SUPP. ACTOR: I’ve been saying Nolte would get in since Sept and his inclusion in HR’s Actor’s Round Table will get him on even more voter’s radars
SCREENPLAY: I think BEGINNERS is gonna make it in too. Yay!
COSTUMES: Good call with IRON LADY but are people underestimating WE’s chances here?
SOUND MIXING: No, WAR HORSE? don't they love war movies here? I will be so overjoyed if TREE OF LIFE makes it in here; that sound design is pure genius
SOUND FX EDITING: Still think COWBOYS & ALIENS is gonna sneak in
MAKEUP: Yes, J. EDGAR's is divisive but they *love* aging makeup and some scenes did feature astounding work. Plus, they show the branch’s voters clips that will obviously showcase this---they'll leave out 'Old Clyde' if they're smart.
Nathaniel -- I'm getting a bit worried about Vanessa Redgrave's chances. Is she really a lock?
It looks like Best Supporting Actress will be the most volatile (in terms of a winner) of the major categories. As of now, at least six women could easily win. It’s 2007 all over again.
Wait, so is War Horse really out of the best pic race (in terms of the win)?!?
Best Actress nominees will be Streep, Davis, Williams, Swinton and Theron. No Glenn Close. Competition is too fierce.
Agree with Brandz regarding the best actress race. I could easily see it coming down to that...is the Academy REALLY going to nominate Close AND make her lose again? Because she is not winning for this role.
Both supporting categories are so up for grabs...Brooks and Plummer look solid for nominations and I say Branagh is likely...I'm disappointed I didn't see a mention at all for Ezra Miller...if We Need to Talk About Kevin gathers steam for Tilda's performance mightn't he be escorted along too?
Outside of Spencer, I don't know who the hell is up for supporting actress. I assume Redgrave makes it but where is the buzz for Coriolanus? I don't see McTeer making it, and judging by the recent trailer for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close I think Bullock may score a nom. She looks quite moving in it and Oscar loves a grieving widow (that sounds sick, but you get my point).
Ryan S -- but The Iron Lady's old age makeup is WAY more convincing than J. Edgar's so if they want old age makeup they have a worthy way to get it.
TommyGIrl -- i think so. but it's only one voice. I honestly can't imagine it winning but i guess some people are more taken with it.
Aaron -- maybe i should've included Ezra. i was trying to figure out who i might have missed and that's one.
John D -- there is no way she's getting snubbed *if* people see the performance. . she OWNS the movie.
I still would not count out Leonardo. The movie was ok, but his performance, as usual was amazing. The sag nominations will show the oscars.
This is minor, but you say Melissa McCarthy has no "--" noms but she has one from the DC Critics! Just sayin. :P
I honestly think Close will get in. I pretty much think you have the correct actresses there. Olsen and Theron are kinda fighting for that last spot but I think Charlize might have it.
If it winds up a being a three way for Best Picture between The Artist, Hugo and War Horse, I really hope Hugo or The Artist wins. Spielberg has two directing Oscars already. That is enough for him. I wouldn't mind seeing Scorsese getting another Oscar, not at all.
katie -- agreed that he is still in teh running. but he's no sure thing.
I think we should be seriously considering Brad Pitt's place in this season. I suspect he has a very legitimate chance of winning Best Actor, and as it becomes more apparent that Tree of Life will have a significant presence during the season, I'm beginning to think it is entirely possible that he's a double nominee in 2011. If he picks up a few more Critics awards that single out both Moneyball and Tree of Life, I think he'll pick up steam in both races. It almost seems probable to me that he is nominated for both at the Globes.
I also wonder what type of presence Corey Stoll will have. Maybe it's wishful thinking because I loved his performance, but if Midnight in Paris has a real presence, I doubt it'll only be in Picture, Director, and Screenplay.
Philip -- i don't count "nominations" from the minor critics associations or it imbalances things since so few critics orgs have that psyche-out process. it'd be like counting the runners up at the other associons (i think only two of them use that one week before psych-out process so not worth counting saith I. :)
I agree Leonardo is far from a sure thing, the movie was weak, but his performance I thought was better than Clooney's and Pitt;s, well for moneyball.
On Pitt being a double nominee. He was solid in moneyball, now Tree of Life, that was an amazing performance, which imo, he should win the oscar for. I hope hie does.
Ohhh, I get it now. Sowwy. :)
I've been thinking for a long time now that our Best Actress nominees will be Davis, Streep, Williams, Close, and Theron.
The ingenues will split votes amongst themselves. Olsen, Jones, and Mara are all well-reviewed, but there isn't a consensus behind any of them like Jennifer Lawrence had nor do any have the benefit of being in a Best Picture frontrunner like Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe the year before. I don't think any of them will make the cut.
Close, if nominated, I think could even pull off a surprise win. She'd be a dark horse, sure, but I can't say I'd be surprised if it happened. A win at the SAG Awards is definitely a very real possibility.
I think people underestimate Theron. 2008 (Winslet, Streep, Hathaway, Leo, Jolie) was the only year in the past 25 years that didn't feature a nominee from a comedy, and unlike Sally Hawkins, who was 2008's comedy almost-was, Theron is a familiar face for Academy voters in a film by a director they've embraced for multiple recent films.
I think Swinton is the only outlier with a real shot at getting in, but I can't decide at whose expense. Maybe Williams, actually. If they only want one case of mimicry, they'll probably go for Streep.
this is an intresting article. I would love to read more of your articles.
From your description of War Horse I have resigned myself to it being what I really, really hoped it wouldn't be, if only for my incredible experience of watching the play. I had my doubts about the adaptation from the get go, because I felt the genius of the play was entirely in its theatricality (the sheer wonder of seeing those gorgeous puppets and the aesthetic/narrative choreography come together in the flesh) and to do it off a stage would remove that originality and magic, leaving only a very conventional, if heartfelt, story. Sometimes things just don't translate, yknow?
oh boy... he really destroyed "Shame" ... whyyy?
Tilda for best actress..although she could not care less
Swinton, Williams, Davis, Theron and Close......Streep, Mara and Olsen trying to get in. I dont think that Streep is as sure as Nathaniel wants her to be
I'm surprised you thought Bridesmaids was a sure thing to begin with. There has been one hit comedy almost every year for the last decade that gets nominated for the WGA but not for the Oscar: Bridget Jones's Diary, The 40-Year-Old Virgin, The Devil Wears Prada, The Hangover, Mean Girls, Knocked Up... With so many screenplays being ineligible for the WGA yet again, I'm quite sure that trend will continue this year. Which is unfortunate, because Bridesmaids is much better and more entertaining than Midnight in Paris.
You're so right! The "dream project" narrative always pays off and Glenn deserves it so much!
It will be painful to watch her lose but we can handle that (Benning, Turner, Pfeiffer...)
Vanessa Redgrave vs. Octavia Spencer? That's tragic because Spencer will end up winning for all the wrong reasons...
PS I know I'm the only one but I think Chastain will get nominated for The Tree of Life.
Manuel --I don't know where you go that. I never said i wanted Streep to make the list. In fact, if she didn't make the list it would make me look prophetic since I was the only pundit to ever not consider her a lock. haha. But then I am virtually the only pundit who seems to believe you can't be locked before anybody has seen a frame of your film and people were calling her a lock since well, a year or two back ;)
Streep is terrific in it but that that's a problem for the film (which i'll get into in the review) and it's such a strong year for women that it's frustrating to me that it will be all the most conventional performance that make it, as if it wasn't a strong year for women.
I tend to agree with Nat/Alex-I think the Theron/Close/Streep/Davis/Williams are the quintet in Best Actress, and I'm starting to feel that it may be similar to 2006 where it's a simple stampede with these five. It'll be interesting to see who the "spares" end up being the Globes Drama race (since there will arguably be two depending on where Williams ends and if either of them can gain traction, but I doubt it). Mara is in too genre of a film, Olson/Swinton/Dunst in too difficult of films, and Jones in too slight-if one of them breaks through I suspect it will be Mara, but I'm pretty solid on the five ladies. It's worth noting if that were the lineup that it'd be the first time we've had all former nominees since 1994.
I don't think Pitt is a long shot for The Tree of Life. He's never been better!
I heard that Weinstein was successful at putting Williams in the Best Actress Musical/Comedy category for the Golden Globes...
(Put this on another thread as well...but felt it belongs here as well)
OH...to wake up to "reality" this morning.
Well, I did watch THE HELP last night and upon 2nd viewing Nathaniel...this is how I feel....
I still think the movie is "Disneyfied" and has some flaws. It does feel a little long. It is very much an ensemble drama so I guess upon my first viewing I can see the confusion about putting Viola in lead. However, upon 2nd viewing and looking at it from an Academy Award standpoint....Abilene really is the "heart" of the story and she is the character we want the camera to keep coming back to. She opens and closes the movie and also narrates. So if there was going to be a lead in this jam packed ensemble it would have to be Viola Davis.
She does a brilliant job and is a tremendous actress. I loved her work in Doubt....not so much in Eat Pray Love. She will be nominated for Best Actress....and upon 2nd viewing has a real chance at winning the Academy Award.
Being a Streep fan....it pains me to say it. However I feel i want her to win that third oscar more than she does at times. But the truth is this....Meryl is the BEST ACTRESS....Hollywood knows this....Academy Awards knows this...she will win a 3RD OSCAR even if its long after she is gone. Streep wil also be nominated again....this is true...will bet money on it...and you cannot say that about many actresses working today...especially one in their sixties...
But as always happens at the Oscars...the performance matters some but not all.....overall Meryl in Iron Lady may be the better challenging performance ....one could argue Whoopi or Angela Bassett could have done Viola'sperformance, not many could do Thatcher....but Viola will not get many roles like this in Hollywood and as great as she is may never be nominated again...there are just not that many opportunities for an African American actress. Now I believe that Viola's defining role is yet to come...but Hollywood sadly does not work that way. Instead in a few years she will either be a secretary in SEX AND THE CITY 3 or playing the lead in a SHOWTIME series...so this may be her only chance and the only chance for Hollywood to honor her. That is all...that is why the push for the win is so hard, I get it. I just did not want to admit it.
My poor meryl....always a bridesmaid :(
Hmm, no Dragon Tattoo predictions anywhere, not even techs? Wonder what you'd say if Rudin wouldn't attack...
The text on the actress page is cut off.
Peggy Sue -- i'd love to believe that since I thought Pitt was phenomenal in The Tree of Life. but no Malick performance has ever been nominated and his movies usually have really soulful or mysteriously captivating acting. If he were double nommed it might really help the Moneyball lead campaign but it seems like wishful thinking to me. all i know is i will be bummed if Clooney wins a second prize for not his best work while Brad misses being honored at all.
The problem Close may have with the dream project -we love you did it- votes is that there is another category where they could go, the adapted screenplay.
And Mara, aside from the it girl in the last minute nomination spot, has all odds against her.
- genre movie, the first of a franchise if everything goes well.
- a character already played recently.
- a reboot, remake, whatever you want to call it.
- violence and sex. If middle aged voters like to objectify actresses in this category, will they embrace a hot girl who *spoilers" takes revenge on the middle aged guy who rapes her? That's quite different from the hot sexy girl who isn't a threat to your sexual fantasies.*
*I've just seen it's been rated R, wtf? Blue Valentine gets NC-17 and this one R? Ah, the power of big studios.
I'm starting to think Streep may win if voters feel the need to vindicate the character she's playing. With all the criticism Thatcher is getting through Streep's performance, her defenders may feel voting for Streep is a way to vote for her, as crazy as that may sound. They could also vote for Marilyn, following the same reasoning, but I guess Williams isn't a threat because she isn't seen as overdue.
Just my two cents.
Maybe you're right... Clooney keeps appearing everywhere but I really think Academy members will go: Oh Brad, you're no longer young and hot so we ready to vote for you!!!
i think Williams will be nominated but I do not think she has "enough" universal praise for the role to warrant the win....
Moneyball could really use a couple of nominations to make some business overseas. Usually in Europe a baseball movie equals an empty movie theater.
Iggy -- i'm not sure i understand your logic on Thatcher and Streep. The movie is in love with Thatcher & her politics ... so i'm kinda shocked that basically liberal Streep went for it.
At the start of all this hoop-la, I did not think Streep would win the Oscar this year... but I do now.
The vindication of Thatcher will help or will be a burden? I can't wait to read your review!
I meant that the movie has brought back old criticism and haters of Thatcher. So her supporters might want to fight back any criticism by voting for Streep's performance as a way to vindicate Thatcher's figure. But if the movie is a love letter to Thatcher they may feel it isn't necessary.
But what do I know? After reading some (.....) think the muppets have a liberal agenda, I feel I've seen it all.
it will definitely be a sad commentary on hollywood's 1%ers if they award a right wing hero this year though. ugh.
Has anyone heard anything about a release date for "Albert Nobbs"? I'm assuming they're doing the one-week qualifier thing, but it's weird that, if I recall correctly, there hasn't actually been a date set for general release yet. And it's December! Very odd.
Amen
The last time I contacted you regarding my original score predictions Hans Zimmer was out of the race. My top 3 is still your top 3 - The Artist (Bource who's won a couple awards here and there both in Europe and America - great homage to Classic Hollywood Music wrting - Comme une rossee de larmes and George Valentin themes are sublime), The Skin I Live In (Iglesias - which I just fucking love - it totally works for the film) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Desplat - my favorite composer - still haven't heard a whisper but a friend of a friend was technical manager of the recordings - he said.....a lot of emotional cello themes, trumpet cues for the childish themes, double piano on the more emotive parts, DOUBLE!). ELAIC is the only soundtrack I have heard.
I have both of William's Tin Tin and War Horse - both are interesting, very appropriate for the film but not exactly amazing as Geisha or Munich or Potter to name his most recent nominations. Double nomination this year? I think not!
Can't you just hear the academy awards orchestra playing the George Valentin Theme from The Artist when it wins 10 oscars?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2CUVBAS0Nk&feature=related
others:
Hugo (shore) - maybe. I'm still trying to get myself through the entire score.
A Dangerous Method (shore) - Beautifully composed but not nomination worthy.
Drive/ Contagion - possibility now that the academy has now opened its arms to "cool contemporary scores" i.e. the social network - boooooo.
Girl Dragon Tattoo (reznor/ross) - better not be nominated - this is not the mtv movie awards.....
jane eyre (marianelli) - beautiful but not wow.
Can someone explain to me why Patton Oswalt is considered to be one of the leading Oscar nominee possibilities? I haven't seen the movie, and I understand he's the audience stand-in which apparently Oscar loves, but based on the trailers and his lack of acting experience, I just don't see this happening. I think fellow actors might appreciate his effort and I'm sure he's fine enough, but an Oscar nod? Instead of Brad Pitt in a performance beloved by critics? I just don't get it.
DJDeeJay--
It's not exactly fair to judge the performance just on the trailer, is it? And his past acting experience shouldn't come into play (although his voice work in "Ratatouille" was fantastic). And plenty of critics have raved about his performance. Brad Pitt is hardly the only one in the category "beloved by critics."
It's about the performance. That's it.
Liz N.,
No, it's not fair to judge based on the trailer, which is why I was asking someone to explain it to me. But with the Oscars, it's never "about the performance. That's it." There's always a ton of other factors. And, quite frankly, it looks like a plain, maybe funny character, but not exactly the kind that gets Oscar excited. I haven't seen too many reviews of the movie yet, so I haven't seen "plenty" of critcs "raving" about him, either. And I didn't say Brad Pitt was the ONLY critical darling, just seemingly one of the leading ones.
I'm definitely excited to see the film, though, and I am a fan of his, so I hope he's great nonetheless.
Liz N.,
I did just skim through 8 reviews of Young Adult from Metacritic and most of them do note how great he is, some even saying he's the film stand-out, so now it makes more sense to me. I guess I could have just done that on my own, but I've been wanting to avoid reviews to avoid spoilers. It'll be interesting to see what happens to his momentum over the next few months.
DJDeeJay--
Just a few reviews from Rotten Tomatoes:
Entertainment Weekly says he's "ferociously authentic."
Salon says he "gives the movie’s most heartfelt and generous performance, by far"
Variety calls it "a poignant, career-redefining performance"
The Hollywood Report says he "excels . . . exposing just enough of Matt's life of hurt under his bracingly jaundiced gab"
And the movie only opens on Friday, so there will no doubt be more positive reviews coming.
I don't mean to pile on you, but when you say, "I'm sure he's fine enough, but an Oscar nod?" and "I don't get it," that to me sounds like you've already made up your mind on the quality of the performance itself based on the trailer and the fact that he's mostly known as a comic. That's a massive pet peeve of mine.
Liz, I just said in my previous comment that I looked up some reviews and saw the praise. I had been avoiding reviews up to that point to avoid spoilers so that's why I didn't know how his performance was being received (outside of this website), but then I explicitly said I researched it and found out.
I in no way wrote him off because he's a comic. I clearly said I'm a fan of his, and admitting that I didn't understand how his role was Oscar material in no way means I made up my mind already or that it couldn't be a good performance. Oscar voters often look for certain, Acting-with-a-capital-A roles and I wasn't sure how his fit in (the trailer doesn't show much of what he's given to do). By saying "I don't get it" and asking for an explanation, I was wondering if someone who had already seen the film would point out why his role might stand out in voters' minds.
Sorry, your 'pet peeve' has nothing to do with me.
DJDeeJay -- it really is about the audience surrogate thing and that it's so much different than the other people fighting for a nod (it's really heavy with lifetime achievement crowd) but it's more in the way the fiml absolutely needs him in a more dramatic way than audience surrogates are usually needed. You need him not as a narrative device but for emotional context. plus he has a pretty full arc and the bulk of the drama in the movie is between his character and Charlize's character.
but anyway by all means go in as cold as you can . I wish I had known less about it before seeing it.
Henry -- i hear what you're saying about the scores but when has Oscar ever needed John Williams scores to be amazing to honor them ;) they'll take any old thing he writes, some redundant some amazing.
Coriolanus is performing very well just for one week in Los Angeles before the wide-release next January. I saw it today with a very good crowd and loved it. It is far better focused and staged as a movie by Ralph Finnes than the stage play I saw many years ago. Ms Redgrave is so powerfully deep and committed to the part that I was literally shaken and stirred from inside, an experience that had never happened before in my whole 40 some years of movie-going or watching anything by Shakespeare. She will not be overlooked by any voters if a truly astounding performance is what they look for.