Oscar Prediction Updates Galore ~ Halfway Mark!
Sunday, June 24, 2012 at 11:52PM In the upcoming week(s) we'll take a look back through the first half of the film year (and try to tie up loose ends from 2011. I know I know. I have time management issues). But what of the 2012/13 Oscar season? The term halfway mark is completely deceiving when it comes to awards season. We're not at all halfway to Oscar. In fact we've only just begun. We've seen a few mainstream genre pieces that are likely to factor in at least a little (The Avengers, Brave, Prometheus) but this weekend brings us our first orphan Best Picture contender in the critical darling Beasts of the Southern Wild. We're not at all halfway through the real contenders but since we're halfway through the calendar, it's time to update the charts.
BEST PICTURE and DIRECTOR
With Gravity pushed back to 2013, let's bet on the other big budget big risk, Ang Lee's adaptation of Life of Pi. The website to that film is up and running now and I keep hitting refresh to watch the tiger's leap and roar. Roooooowwr. Reload. Roooooowwwr. Reload. Roooowwwwrr. Reload. It thrills me every time. I blame my love of both cats and Oscar punditry multiplied by OCD.
ACTOR, ACTRESS, SUPPORTING ACTOR, SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lots of shuffling on these charts, particularly within both supporting categories. Those players don't come into easy focus until the fall. Newbies on these big charts include the first time actors who play father/daughter in the riveting Beasts of the Southern Wild (interviews real soon), Michelle Pfeiffer in People Like Us (just discussed), Michael Fassbender in Prometheus (just discussed), Isla Fisher from The Great Gatsby and Matthew McConaughey from Magic Mike. Lots more on that film coming which wasn't quite what I was expecting but which I thoroughly enjoyed.
FOREIGN FILMS new chart!
Denmark's A Royal Affair made big waves at Berlinale and its easy to picture a sumptuous expertly acted costume drama winning AMPAS attention. Cannes hits from lauded auteurs like Haneke, Mungiu, Audiard and Garrone could also be submitted from their countries though it's far too early to know. Any other suggestions?
And more... VISUAL and AURAL CATEGORIES see gains for Life of Pi and The Avengers the latter of which is probably too big now to ignore at $600 million even though Oscar hasn't been crazy about superhero flicks. Beasts shakes up the adapted SCREENPLAY chart but the original screenplay category is a complete mystery. It's anyone's guess.
There's no changes to the ANIMATED CHART because, quite frankly, I lost the thread there. I've only seen Brave this year. Make more of an effort with the toons, I must.
As always your armchair punditry is welcome in the comments. Where am I off base? Which hunches do you think are smart ones? Make your case or describe what you see in your crystal ball.
Reader Comments (52)
I think you are underestimating Denzel Washington in Flight.
I thinkLife of Pi will be the only one of your predictions to become reality .. I'm sorry! also Beasts actress...
I think Kidman will go supporting. Both her people and her studio will be smart enough to push her there. Less competitive and even if she is the "Lead" it still seems (at this point) like the sort of flashy over the top supporting role Oscar goes for in the supporting category.
I think Maggie Smith's support from Quartet will get her a nom in the supporting category for "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel". That film is the very definition of a crowd pleaser, it has been doing well here, and she's great in it. Especially if it's one of the other ladies they want to nominate more.
I think you're underestimating Phillip Seymour Hoffman as well. He just seems like he'll be a contender. He always is when his film has decent buzz and he's the main supporting guy (Charlie Wilson's War vs. The Ides of March). I guess it will depend on if this "Ides" in terms of Buzz or something like "Doubt." I think Mastermind will be closer to Doubt in terms of buzz, meaning he'll get in.
Seymour Hoffman has three career nominations, currently incomplete on his write up. —Nathan
do you believe Kidman is better off taking the Blanchett path and become a regular at Supporting Actress? At forty-five and polarizing, maybe she can shotgun a second win where she's not competing with starlets—or Streep? It can't be easy for any actress with the Academy being made of older white men steeped in their tradition and prejudice. Five women have prizes in both categories, while Streep and Lange making up the only ones to do it being Supporting Actress winners first—Jolie? Blanchett? I was grateful Chastain didn't win last year because of the Supporting Actress trap.
I believe having characters from Knocked Up makes This is 40 eligible in the "adapted" category - as most sequels were treated (Before Sunset and Toy Story 3 but not The Barbarian Invasions, for exampe).
Honestly, I prefer these predictions. The April predictions were a lot based in wishful thinking. Especially in Best Actress category. Just a few considerations:
-Joel Edgerton: He's having a great year. With a supporting turn in "The Great Gatsby" and the lead turn of "Zero Dark Thirty" maybe he'll be an Oscar nominee. I predict Best Actor like Jeremy Renner did it. Bigelow is excellent as an actor's director -Fiennes, Bassett, Penn, Curtis and Renner are proof of that-
-Jessica Chastain: Almost every year there's a returning nominee as a "afterglow" effect. With the response in Cannes is less likely by Pitt and maybe they need to wait for Streep the next year. I think Chastain is more likely.especially after these news: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/bin-laden-movie-kathryn-bigelow-jessica-chastain-339406... Now the question is Lead or Suppoting?
-Penélope Cruz: "Twice Born" is still a question mark... But I tend to believe with this international cast -Including Emile Hirsch and Jane Birkin- the film will be in english and not exactly in italian as imdb suggested. Even the few italian actors in the film can speak in English. Maybe we have the answer next in Venice, but mark my words: If the film is a success and the film is in English (At least in a 70%) Cruz will be a big contender for the Oscar. Her role is Oscarish and the AMPAS loves these kind of tragic heroines.
Here's mine:
Picture:
-Amour
-Argo
-Beasts of the Southern Wild
-Les Miz
-Life of Pi
-The Master
-Zero Dark Thirty
Director
-Ben Affleck
-Paul Thomas Anderson
-Kathryn Bigelow
-Michael haneke
-Tom Hooper
Actor:
-Daniel Day-Lewis
-Joel Edgerton
-John Hawkes
-Hugh Jackman
-Joaquin Phoenix
I believe Bill Murray will be snubbed again...
Actress:
-Marion Cotillard
-Penélope Cruz - Again, gut feeling
-Laura Linney
-Maggie Smith
-Quvenzhané Wallis
I have Lawrence in sixth...
Supporting Actor.
-Bryan Cranston
-Russell Crowe
-Leonardo DiCaprio
-Philip Seymour Hoffman
-David Strathairn
Even if I think Anna Karenina will be a new Marie Antoinette, Jude Law could be a contender especially for the comeback angle and the british vote
Supporting Actress:
-Amy Adams
-Jessica Chastain
-Anne Hathaway
-Tabu - Why not? There's almost a surprise contender like Max Von Sydow, Maggie Gyllenhaal and others. Diversity spot - Asian backlash
-Olivia Williams
And for Best Foreign Language Film:
-FRANCE: The logical reason is Rust and Bone, but there's a possibility France will make the same movement as Germany in 2009 when they choose "The Wihite Ribbon" instead "John Rabe" and choose this year's Haneke film "Amour"
-CHILE: Don't forget "No", starring for Gael Garcia Bernal. It received critical acclaim. Even the press make criticism against the organization of Cannes Festival for relegate the film in Directors' Fortnight. Maybe the biggest threat from Latin America.
-DENMARK: "A Royal Affair" is the frontrunner against "The Hunt"
-CANADA: "War Witch" with another girl as a lead actress. And in the last 6 years, Canada is a big contender in this category
-TURKEY: "Life". My dark horse of the competition. It received warm reviews in Sundance and Seattle Film Festival and the topic is something Oscarish enough -Family intimate drama-
I think Cosmopolis performer Robert Pattinson should be on the list, he was brilliant
I can't help but admit that I had the same thought about Isla Fisher in The Great Gatsby. She's entirely unrecognizable in the role (deglam?) and that could only help her case. Plus the role might be free enough to be showy.
...or maybe they'll just get confused and think she's Amy Adams and nominate her on accident.
Quvenzhane is a "ham in public". Wow, she's 8 years old. Let's have some respect.
That fish-in-the-boat sequence from Life of Pi that played before Moonrise Kingdom when I saw it (is that happening everywhere?) just seemed so risibly and mystifyingly awful. Flat look, bad colors, way too long for what happens in it, unconvincing CGI, amateur-looking actor. An afternoon audience of full-grown adults either laughed at it or just furrowed their brows. I'm not expecting anything from this movie, but I guess we can hope?
@Nathaniel
I'm pretty sure that photo you have for Isla Fisher in the Supp. Actress category isn't her. Just a note.
rick -- are you talking best picture? I'm not perfect but no way i only score 10% correct ;)
thatguy -- hmmm. i'll double check tonight. i just searched for Isla Fisher Gatsby images and that came up :) perhaps it's what i get for trying to make such huge charts
xavier -- didn't mean it to be derogatory. Ham celebrities are totally enjoyable/the best kind. See also: Meryl Streep.
renate -- really? i was hoping so but i keep hearing negative things.
I'm pretty sure Inside Llewyn Davis is a 2013 release. I think this is the longest time we've gone without a Coen brothers movie since 2004-2007. Of course, that turned out pretty well.
Is it confirmed that Joaquin Phoenix is the lead in The Master and PSH is supporting?
[Is it confirmed that Joaquin Phoenix is the lead in The Master and PSH is supporting?]
No. Early word has Seymour Hoffman positioned for the lead category campaign. Yes, the narrative thrust of the movie and the teaser campaign is Phoenix, but I believe they feel it'll be easier for him to win in Supporting, while they can make Hoffman a double Best Actor winner.
I wonder, could Denzel Washington be this year's Meryl Streep?
Nat: On The Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises "splitting" I don't think the fanboys are going to be that split. At the end of the day, if they have to bang the gong on only one to get something in, they'll stump for either The Dark Knight Rises or, if it turns out to be the better film, the new (snarkier) Amazing Spider-Man. (As I mentioned a few times before, my view of the original film series amounts to "It's all down hill from the first film's wrestling match.") My view is, they do enjoy The Avengers, but if the fanboy bloggers decide to push it for Best Picture support, it'll get them taken less seriously due to how crepe-thin that film is, at the end of the day. Which is why I'm betting it's currently between the two that aren't out yet.
I don't have a good feeling about The Life of Pi and think you might be overestimating it. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of flops among the "frontrunners" this year-- The Great Gatsby, Anna Karenina, The Life of Pi come to mind.
I also wonder if Zero Dark Thirty might be to The Hurt Locker what The Town was to Gone Baby Gone (i.e., the success one relatively under-the-radar film primes the public to be very excited by a second, similarly themed film by the same director, but the first film is the far better one).
My Best Picture prediction would be Les Miserables, which I think will meet expectations, or The Master if the Academy is willing to go dark. Having Harvey on its side will surely help.
Just out of curiosity, you said that there were only 2 leading man who won for musical roles, so who were they? Rex Harrison for My Fair Lady would be on, I guess?
Tombeet:
Bing Crosby in Going My Way?
Yul Brenner for THE KING AND I
ok, my thoughts on your predictions:
Picture: Hyde Park is giving me a weird "My week with Marilyn" kind of vibe... i only see it getting some acting nods and techs but no picture. Same for Anna... i think the "experimental approach" Wright is giving it will make it a very divisive movie (hope i'm wrong since i'm dying to see it).
Director: sounds about right at this point =/
Actress: i'm surprised you're not mentioning Judi Dench for Marigold Hotel, i mean... the movie is huge, popular and it's Dench. This is the kind of movie i see being loved by older AMPAS members (and at least i can say it's a safe bet for a GG nod in the comedy/musical category). And Wallis looks more likely than Babs, tbh
Actor: i can see PSH being pushed here... but based on what we've seen on the teasers Phoenix will be the true lead of the movie, but also can happen a situation like Last King of Scotland
Sup. actress: i'm also not buying Imogene's buzz... looks so generic
Sup. actor: for some reason i easily can see DiCaprio (i actually think Waltz will be better than him) failing here and scoring for Gatsby
and can we all agree that regardless of the quality of the movies we have 3 movies locked in costume design? Anna, Les mis and Gatsby
No No No ! Keira Knightly .. Are you serious ??? She is quiet sweet and likable but nooooo - She really proved her limits in "Dangerous Method" - dreadful and wooden performance! - can not believe that she was actually considered for last years race... just think what Rebecca Hall or Rosemarie DeWitt would have done with this meaty material ..?
Otherwise interesting best actress mix!! Like it..
leon: I doubt Bill Murray won't win, even if the film is passed over for Best Picture and all other major categories. This actor? In this role? At this time? No way.
Weird toss-up: At this point, they'll need to nom a straight voice or mo-cap role soon. Brave's getting so many "light for Pixar reviews" that no one there'll get traction. Dreamworks Animation wouldn't get it this year because they only have Madagascar 3 and I hear of no major new mo-cap work. So...I just have to toss out the possibility of Seth McFarlane as Ted as a possible surprise Supporting Actor nom. If Actors start publically saying they have to bite that exact bullet Ted is the one I can actually see netting a nom.
Brave: It's Pixar, but even from the trailers, I can say I've heard better V/O from Pixar. I wouldn't be too surprised (Pixar is still prestige), but there's other ways they could have bitten that bullet with this company. (Including a "gets better with every viewing" performance by Peter O'Toole in Ratatouille.)
Madgascar 3: Um...no way anyone's getting a V/O only nom with this material. Next!
Ted: Yeah, Seth McFarlane is a very squirrelly, vulgar, immature person as can be seen with Family Guy, and the reviews seem very "Love or Hate", but it sounds from the ads like he's pouring his weird soul into this character, which is a bit more than I get from the Brave and, especially, Madgascar 3 spots. If they decide to bite the V/O bullet this year, I can't quite see a better choice than Ted. It'll be Supporting if it happens, even though Ted's a lead character, but I note: If it's not bitten on Ted (85th ceremony), it still needs to happen VERY soon. By very soon, I mean that I'd want it to happen at the 86th or 87th ceremonies. We've gotten too much strong V/O for the Academy to refuse it any longer.
@NAthaniel ... NO... NO ... NO... I was only commenting on the ones you wrote on the blog ...
You had not updated the chart yet ... usually I find your predictions close to mine... otherwise, I would have spent the last 5 years reading you blog daily... Sorry for the misinterpretation !
@NAthaniel ... NO... NO ... NO... I was only commenting on the ones you wrote on the blog ...
You had not updated the chart yet ... usually I find your predictions close to mine... otherwise, I would have spent the last 5 years reading you blog daily... Sorry for the misinterpretation
Correction: Would NOT have spent...
Stop with that Kidman nonsense. She's never nominated for outre ! Never ! See : To die for (playing a baddie), The Portrait of A Lady (divisive film), Eyes Wide Shut (category confusion), Dogville (too experimental for Acadmey), Birth (too weird), Margot at the wedding (she's mean!)... Paperboy will follow the same path. But it will cement her reputation.
I wonder, could Denzel Washington be this year's Meryl Streep?
I think he'd need to have built up more momentum over the last decade to get the third Oscar. He hasn't even been nominated since he last won, or come close to it, either.
@Sean C
Double standards for men, plus Washington being the only multiple black Oscar winner places him in a special position to take it with any future Best Actor nominations.
Isla Fisher is an enteresting option, her character is the only one of the book that I clearly see as oscar baity or showy enough. If she is good I can see her being nominated for some precursors. Even Karen Black won a Golden Globe playing the same character and critics hated the film.
Sean C: I think American Gangster was at least somewhat close. (Globe Drama nom) But the film was dull, the character unsympathetic (drug dealer) and the combo means I doubt he got ANY #1 votes. That having been said, his career since Training Day has been really dull. I blame his tilt (only exception being his two 2007 films, the aforementioned American Gangster and The Great Debaters) toward action films and thrillers.
I am feeling that Amy Adams will be the front runner in the best actress category this year... I think the "it's her time" mentality will kick in and I have a hunch Linney will go supporting? Other than that... Best Actress does not sound that exciting to me this year...???
I think if any man of that generation wins a third Oscar, it will be DDL, but I doubt he'll do it this year (though he'll get the nomination even if Lincoln is mediocre, which it very well might be). The field is just too competitive, and his last win was too recent.
@V
You either cash-in or chase, cashing-in worked for the beginning of this year, and will only do him favors, the director's return to live action, Washington's return to doing something remotely nominate-able, and if its a hit, he would gain groundswell.
um. the academy is never going to nominated a VO performance. Nor should they if you ask me since it just doesn't require the same all around work that a live action performance does. To compound matters even when an actor is seen AND heard, they like them to be in very meaty roles so that's several strikes against that kind of work right there. Add to that that many actors think of voiceover as "an easy paycheck" -- yes, i've heard it in interviews -- and you end up with just way too many strikes against it being taken seriously. Sorry animation lovers!.
I can see a mocap performance getting nominated some day (in distant future)... especially if it's a prestigious actor. As more and more actors do it it will start losing its genre-only factor and the actor is still doing a LOT of the character building work, vocally and physically and facially.
Denzel is awesome. He should've won best actor for Unstoppable, which was a PURE DENZEL CHARISMA FEST of the highest order.
Volvagia, actually playing a president wasn't exactly a demanding role for the Oscars. For the 84 years for the Oscars ONLY 6 men were nominated playing presidents of USA. I really think you OVERESTIMATE his role. There are others examples -Rlph Bellam, Peter Fonda among the relevants- of this list of snubbed performances. Even Bellamy was EXCELLENT as Roosevelt and he was snubbed while Greer Garson was nominated. I think it could be the same situation fot HPOH. Clearly Murray wasn't exactly beloved for the AMPAS and he could easily snubbed for other performances while Linney will be nominated. Also Volvagia... Did you know which president is playing twice and nominated by the Oscar? Richard Nixon, maybe one of the most controversial presidents.
even if the film is passed over for Best Picture and all other major categories. This actor? In this role? At this time?
That wasn't enough for Ben Kingsley or Ralph Fiennes for "Schindler's List", Jeremy Renner for "The Hurt Locker", Joseph Fiennes for "SIL", Gloria Stuart for "Titanic"... Murray hasn't the love or even the respect for AMPAS and the competition is stiff with a Hollywood star (Jackman), one of the most talented actors of his generation (Phoenix), a character actor with a "feel-good" movie (Hawkes) and even another presidential spot (Day-Lewis)
Nat: It can't be EVERY actor that thinks that V/O work is "just a pay check", especially the younger ones or ones who's live action careers have turned out to be disastrouslly dull. And the ones that don't think it's just a pay check? They'd be very peeved off to hear that the work they're doing will never get honours because it's not as "complete" as mo-cap or live work. And a pure V/O never getting the nom? Doubtful. It's been an over twenty year long renaissance of animation, passing itself back and forth between TV and the Cinema. My preference would be, if not this year, in the next year or two, but if this continues much longer, I think a lot of people are going to have to honestly start questioning the critics organizations that NEVER outright give a pure V/O performance best of the year honours in any acting category. (Especially with 2009 Lead Actress. Are you telling me NO CRITIC thought Dakota Fanning in Coraline was better than that entire field (Unless The Last Station could honestly convince me, that's probably the most dull and lifeless Lead Actress field of the aughts and Streep's artificial butter popcorn is the worst exemplar of how dull) by a country mile?) Mo-Cap (for that, I offer up three times they could have bitten: 2002, for Andy Serkis with the strongest appearance of Gollum, 2006, for Steve Buscemi in Monster House, 2011, for Andy Serkis in Rise of the Planet of the Apes) might be first to a nom, because it resembles what traditional acting is a bit more, but pure V/O work is still an important skill.
leon: Um...he "doesn't have their respect"? I think that might have been at least a little true in 1998, but today? Highly doubtful. They don't really "nominate" stuff like Broken Flowers, but they respect it a lot more than Ghostbusters. As for those other comparisons: Ben Kingsley had already WON, The Fiennes Bros and Renner were actors on their big break and Gloria Stuart, well, she had that long stretch where SHE WASN'T IN THE MOVIES. The most apt comparison is, frankly, JEFF BRIDGES. On that note, let's pick apart those others: Lincoln, considering the director, could just come across as a bland hagiography with a surprising lack of meat. Plus, even if it doesn't, DDL has won twice before and, outside of Tropic Thunder, that's the win limit. Les Miserables is a traditional musical and Lead Males haven't won for one of those since THE SIXTIES. Joaquin Phoenix...do you really think they have enough respect to hand the guy who faked being crazy just to make a shock doc an Oscar? And that John Hawkes inspirational tale? It's about SEX! Y'know, that thing the Academy is infamously afraid of, in general.
do you really think they have enough respect to hand the guy who faked being crazy just to make a shock doc an Oscar?
Actually, yes. Phoenix fake his crazyness but AMPAS forgives a lot of his peers when they're not assholes like Murphy. And yes, I think Phoenix is clearly more respected by his peers than Murray in many aspects. Not only he was nominated twice at the age of 30, he's even considerate him as best actor of his generation. Also Bridges isn't exactly the same situation as Murray. Bridges was considerate one of the best actors of his generation and a real star since the 70s. Murray hasn't. Also you forget about this: The comedic actors have worst time taking respect for the AMPAS...
It's about SEX! Y'know, that thing the Academy is infamously afraid of, in general.
Mmmm... The AMPAS isn't exactly affraid for sex per se, they nominated after all Marlon Brando and Emily Watson for these kind of films and Berry won for a controversial scene. "Shame" wasn't nominated for the sexual context, it was more for the slow theme and cold perception. Remember the note in Metacritic (78) low than expected.
DDL has won twice before and, outside of Tropic Thunder
I agree with you in that point. DDL needs outstading reviews to win. But even with that, Tony Kushner gives me more confidence than Richard Nelson -At least in this time of the year-
Les Miserables is a traditional musical and Lead Males haven't won for one of those since THE SIXTIES.
Only with a clear difference, Jean Valjean is the most dramatic role in a musical in the last years. It's not like Richard Gere in "Chicago". The nearest comparision will be Johnny Depp for "Sweeney Todd" and even with a inconsistent race, Depp was nominated against other contenders like Gosling, Hirsch and McAvoy -Also is possible for the ageism in the leading category, but if the film was released early maybe it would be a bigger threat-
I'm pulling for a big Oscar year for The Master. Paul Thomas Anderson finally seemed to get into the good graces of the Academy after There Will be Blood, which was long overdue as I feel he's the best American director making films today. Early buzz is solid, and I feel all three of Hoffman, Adams, and Phoenix will be nominated as well.
The one concern I did have was that the movie is getting a wide release in October, meaning there's more of a chance that voters will forget about it once the Oscar-baiting films come out at the end of December. But that concern was soon negated once I read The Weinstein Company is behind the film; I'm predicting a repeat of last years award season where everyone ended up thanking "The Boss."
And what about Moonrise Kingdom? Maybe it's a longshot, but I would consider it due the critical acclaim (the best rated movie of Anderson in Rotten tomatoes and IMDb) and success...
My choices for Best Pictures are (until now):
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Anna Karenina
Life Of Pi
The Master
Those are the locks.
Argo
Django Unchained
Zero Dark Thirty
The other 3 pictures that could be nominated without Best Director noms.
Moonrise
Amour
The Hobbit
Dark Knight Rises
Trouble...
Beasts Of The Sourthern Wild
Silver Linnings Playbook
Killing Them Softly
Flight
Longshots...
By the way, nice blog.
Roger Ebert has already gone on record by calling Beasts of the Southern Wild a sure thing for a Best Picture nomination. Granted, he's not always right (he also claimed in 2004 after the Toronto Film Festival that Liam Neeson would win Best Actor for Kinsey, and look how that turned out), but I have a feeling he may be right about this one. There's going to be at least one summer release nominated (unless they cut the nominees back down to 5), and at this point, I just don't see what else it could be.
On Daniel Day-Lewis: I think he'll be nominated even if Lincoln disappoints, but it's going to take career-best reviews to get him a third win. Although I do believe that if any living actor is respected enough to win a third Oscar, it's him, so it would be very stupid to rule out the possibility.
Hyde Park on Hudson seems like the kind of movie that could be too light to stick out in people's minds, but maybe that's just how they're advertising it. Olivia Williams seems like the best bet. I'm not sure if they'll go for Murray, barring the possibility that there's a big emotional pull to his portrayal. In other words, I don't see them nominating him just for the dry wit he's known for, which is what they're playing up in the trailer.
I'm also not entirely sold on Les MIserables. I definitely think it will get several tech nominations, but with a movie like this, it needs to be either a huge critical smash or a surprise box office hit. Being both wouldn't hurt. Movies like Nine and J. Edgar have shown us that it takes more than just the element of prestige to win over Academy voters, and since I'm not convinced that this will be a box office draw, I'm holding out on the critics' reactions.You know that for a movie like this there are bound to be vocal detractors, but the question is: will there be enough passionate supporters to overtake them?
The Master is a curiosity, because it seems like it's going to be such an "auteur" film that it's all but guaranteed to be considered a masterpiece by some and pretentious garbage by others. For the record, I think they'll campaign Hoffman as a lead and Phoenix as supporting in order to prep Joaquin up for a win rather than merely a nomination. The chances are they're actually co-leads, but when was the last time a studio ran an honest two-lead campaign?
The elephant in the room is The Dark Knight Rises. Even though the Academy has denied it, most of us here agree that the snub of The Dark Knight was what prompted the Academy to expand its Best Picture field in the first place. Although I won't hold my breath on Nolan getting in for Best Director (after two consecutive snubs for what seemed like very good bets, I just don't think the director's branch likes him very much), a Best Picture nomination is possible provided it's considered to be at least in the vicinity of its predecessor as far as quality goes, and ESPECIALLY if the movie shatters box office records again and topples the gross of The Avengers. I think the latter is a distinct possibility, considering it's certain to have the biggest midnight premiere grosses ever, and thus the biggest first-day opening in movie history. Like I said, with a movie this big, if the reviews are enthusiastic, I'm not sure the Academy will pass up this franchise again, especially now that they have an expanded field.
I mean, can you imagine the kind of backlash they'll get if The Dark Knight Rises is considered to be as good as its predecessor whilst making even more money at the box office, only to be snubbed yet again despite the possibility of up to 10 nominees? The internet would never get over it. (I'm halfway joking there, but only halfway.)
Edwin -- I think there's no chance that Dark Knight Rises grosses more than Avengers. Not only did Avengers have an ubiquitously suffocating marketing campaign, but it also had the benefit of 3D surcharges, which no doubt played a huge role rockin its ongoing totals.
Volvagia - not saying you're wrong about the virtues of V.O acting/actors, but I think Chris Rock's bit at the Oscars this year (or last?) probably destroyed any flickering chance of a V.O performance ever getting anywhere near an Oscar nomination. Or at the very least destroyed it for a very long time to come.
On Daniel Day-Lewis: I think he'll be nominated even if Lincoln disappoints, but it's going to take career-best reviews to get him a third win.
Completely agree, Edwin. If there's a president nominated this year it would be him
I'm not sure if they'll go for Murray, barring the possibility that there's a big emotional pull to his portrayal. In other words, I don't see them nominating him just for the dry wit he's known for, which is what they're playing up in the trailer
Thank you, Edwin...
For the record, I think they'll campaign Hoffman as a lead and Phoenix as supporting in order to prep Joaquin up for a win rather than merely a nomination.
Even when I thought Phoenix will be in the leading category, this wouldn't be surprising. I think all depends who strong is DiCaprio for the supporting actor for "Django Unchained" and we know Harvey wants to compete with his best horses in any category.
The chances are they're actually co-leads, but when was the last time a studio ran an honest two-lead campaign?
2010: Focus Features: Annett Bening and Julianne Moore for "The Kids are all Right"
2008: Universal: Frank Langhella and Michael Sheen for "Frost/Nixon"
Also: the new trailer for "Quartet". Maggie Smith looks excellent, but maybe this film is more like an actor's show:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttMzA5SJqdU&feature=youtu.be
Around the Golden Globes, It would be interesting how choose the candidates:
Actress - Comedy/Musical
1. Maggie Smith - Quartet
2. Judi Dench - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
3. Meryl Streep - Hope Springs
4. Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook - Maybe Harvey wanted her in Drama?
5. Kirsten Wiig - Imogene - If released in 2012
-------
6. Anna Kendrick - Pitch Perfect // Cameron Diaz - Gambit
Actress - Drama
1. Penélope Cruz - Twice Born
2. Laura Linney - Hyde Park on Hudson - Category confusion?
3. Marion Cotillard - Rust & Bone
4. Helen Hunt . The Sessions
5. Keira Knightley - Anna Karenina
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6. Carey Mulligan - The Great Gatsby // Mia Wasikowska - Stoker // Dakota Fanning - Effie
MDA -- agreed that Dark Knight 2 (Batman Begins 3?) won't outgross the Avengers... for one thing it won't be as all ages "fun". And surely the AVENGERS was pulling both the usual superhero fanatics, the curious,the standard blockbuster crowd AND the family audiences given the bright colorful funny team. Plus Dark Knight Rises doesn't have the phenomenon timing of the whole Heath Ledger memorial fanaticism... though i think given how large the previous one got we could at least see it equalling the Dark Knight grosses... which is nothing to scoff at. Imagine HUNGER GAMES $400 million being only the 3rd or 4th highest grossing of the year. how weird would that be?
also I'm curious as to why people think HOFFMAN is the lead in The Master after the cryptic teasers focusing on Phoenix. It's certainly possible, don't get me wrong but other than the widespread assumption that he's the lead based on his stardom and the title of the movie, we got nothing else to go on. But title characters have been supporting before. or at least secondary co-lead.
If A Royal Affair were in English instead of Danish I think Mikkel Boe Følsgaard would have a stronger foothold in your "third-tier" group. It's such a juicy role - the unstable and cruel but ultimately deeply sympathetic "mad" king. He already won in Berlin, it'd be nice to see him pick up a few more awards.
One thing, though: Hyde Park on Hudson is based on an already-broadcast radio drama from 2009. The writer is the same. I know The King's Speech was a play that was nominated for Original Screenplay, but that one was unproduced and unpublished at the time, so it qualified.