Gurus of Gold Begins
Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 8:05PM 
What will Oscar love this year? It's the question that never quite leaves the mind of the Oscar fanatic. Especially not this time of year when the bulk of the baity films are about to reveal themselves at festivals and on movie screens. August is practically the last moment of "anything could happen" dreaming. Reality (or whatever passes for it in the land of Loud Opinions) is about to set in.
So it's a perfect time for the Gurus of Gold to begin. This long running group of key awards pundits, assembled by David Poland at Movie City News has a new member this year. Me. I'm truly grateful for the honor of a place at that table.
To "set the field" we were asked to submit our top fifteen (unranked) assumptions about which films might be Best Picture bound. My fifteen won't be difficult for you to guess since they're there on TFE's Updated Best Picture Chart but here is the Guru chart. The joy of group punditry is investigating where consensus emerges and where pundits are out on limbs alone. For instance, I'm the only Guru that named Ridley Scott's The Counselor as a Best Picture possibility and I don't have much company at all when it comes to Dallas Buyers Club either. Spike Jonze's Her, JC Chandor's All is Lost, and Bennett Miller's Foxcatcher, all featured in my top ten (not just my top fifteen) don't seem to be inspiring consensus opinion in terms of Best Picture heat either. As for the consensus titles that I'm cooler on than the almost all the other Gurus, that'd be Monuments Men (the trailer worried me) and Inside Llewyn Davis (I just don't see how the Coen Bros can hit gold every time) but I have good company in doubting those with Pete Hammond and Mark Harris, respectively.
12 Years a Slave was one of only 3 films to receive 14 of 15 votes
What'cha think? The Gurus of Gold chart (as well as my own) will invariably be shaken up by TIFF the festival that always changes everything by way of "First!"
UPDATED OSCAR CHARTS RIGHT HERE
Picture | Director | Actress | Actor | Supporting Actress | Supporting Actor
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Reader Comments (29)
Congrats! I hope you're right about All Is Lost, Her and Foxcatcher - they might be my most anticipated pics of the fall, though that doesn't necessarily mean anything vis-a-vis Oscar nominations. (And I like Clooney a lot, but I agree about Monuments Men. I wish he'd stick to acting and step away from directing.)
I guess I still don't understand AT ALL how 12 Years a Slave is making it into the conversation since McQueen's work has been anything but Academy friendly thus far. And word from early screenings is that this is just like his previous two films in terms of style: slow, languid and brutal. Not sure why people would think he'd change his style just to appease voters, but I guess I must be missing something here.
I have high hopes for The Counselor as well. why people are doubting this movie I don't know.
Also, congrats on being a guru! So deserved.
@Lola - It looks like a hot mess. A trashy, hot, all-over-the-place mess. Maybe even more so than PROMETHEUS.
@Jordan oh ? looks amazing to me, better then Wolf of Wall Street. to each their own. I didn't see Prometheus but I know it's a completely different type of movie then The Counselor and has a script by 80 year old legend Cormac McCarthy , author of Best Picture winning No Country for Old Men.
And Jordan - every time I read something from someone who attended a screening they all seem to mention how similar in terms of realism and pathos the movie as Shame and Hunger.
So I'm betting all the critics will bite but once again the Academy will ignore it. Steve McQueen is too confrontational for the Academy taste.
Whereas The Butler? If it reaches The Help-like level of box office, I can see it being showered with nominations. A contained Lee Daniels goes a long way. Oprah helps.
@Jorge - Agreed. It's a shame, because I'd love to see McQueen succeed with both groups, but I just don't see the one having the balls to recognize him, even if it is for a baity subject like slavery.
As for your predictions, I agree with most of them, Nathaniel. I feel people are overestimating those obvious contenders - for every Lincoln that succeeds there's a truckload of stuff who doesn't (from J. Edgar to Invictus, from War Horse to The Iron Lady).
It would be a VERY odd year if the more obvious picks (Saving Mr Banks, American Hustle, Monuments Men, The Butler, Captain Phillips, Wolf of Wall Street, Nebraska, Inside Llewyn Davis, Foxcatcher, Gravity, Philomena, August:OC) all get in. Something's gotta give.
I don't know why but I think Reitman'll be back to the race this year with Labor Day. And Foxcatcher and Her seem like good contenders. As does American Hustle which in fact seems to be getting the bulk of "the one to beat" odds - and I don't know why but I can totally see it winning too.
My top 10 as of this moment:
1American Hustle
2Foxcatcher
3Her
4The Book Thief (if it's as good as the good, voters will eat it up - 200% ZOMG Oscar bait + bonus Geoffrey Rush + bonus little kids + bonus WW II story + sentimental, heartbreaking story - of course it could end up like Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and get zero)
5Wolf of Wall Street
6August: OC (Streep + a movie above C-level = Oscar nomS!)
7Captain Philips
8Fruitvale Station (if it survives the fall; like Beasts of the Southern Wild it will needs critics' nods)
9Monuments Men
10Gravity (but it'll need Life of Pi levels of box office)
First, congratulations! Much deserved.
Second, The BUTLER????? I mean, I'm glad it was made, and I understand Oscar loves it some historic movies, and THE HELP was nominated, sure, but I'm hoping it's kind of forgotten by then....
I am surprised about the near universal confidence in 12 Years a Slave. The gripe has nothing to do with quality but whether or not McQueen will make a movie that jives with The Academy.
I feel like Gravity/All is Lost/Captain Phillips are either all going to be nominated for Best Picture or they'll all fall short. I feel like sometimes AMPAS voters can occasionally nominated similar movies in the same year. Same goes for Rush which I am starting to get bullish on. Peter Morgan and Ron Howard paired together could work very well with the Academy.
I feel like the Academy still has no idea how to handle The Coen Bros. They felt like the moment they let them finally win was enough, otherwise they shut them out in major categories for True Grit and also seemed to let A Serious Man get in on account for a weak year (The Blind Slide and District 9 Best Picture nod year). I can understand being skeptical of their works winning over Oscar voters. It's not that it won't be a quality product, it's a matter of taste. Monuments Men does look it has high dud-potential. Clooney has done little to show he was worth getting all those directing accolades the first time around.
I really want Foxcatcher and Her to happen. Annapurna having 3 Best Picture nods this year (it should've had 2 last year) would be great.
for every Lincoln that succeeds there's a truckload of stuff who doesn't (from J. Edgar to Invictus, from War Horse to The Iron Lady)
The lone purpose of THE IRON LADY was getting Streep her elusive third Oscar. The movie was never meant for DIRECTOR, PICTURE accolades. It succeeded at exactly its reason for being.
3rtful -- i would agree with this
Jorge -- except that war horse and invictus did way better in the nominations than they had any business doing! :)
3rtful, Nathaniel, I'm with you, that was of course its main goal but don't you think that Harvey hoped they had in their hands another King's Speech?
You know you have all the company in me with Dallas Buyers Club. Do you think the spectacular now has a chance. Saw it today. Thought it was excellent. Especially the performances. You think Walter Mitty can be a contender as wel?
Here's my take on Inside Llewyn Davis: if A Serious Man could get in (when the voting rules were different, admittedly), then yes, the Coen brothers can hit gold every time. They've clearly got a base of fanboys in the Academy.
Second, count me among those confused why everybody is so bullish on The Butler. It has gravitas, and Oprah, but no way does it come close to The Help box office numbers.
Mazal tov! You deserve Gurus of Gold ascension. Reign wisely.
Judi Dench for Best Actress? You're out of the loop.
Karen - which loop? where? Judi Dench is Oscar catnip,
The Coens are in. The Cannes jury - including many an Oscar voter - gave it the Grand Prix. The trailers look great. It's in and I cant wait to see it even though I'm not a huge fan of the brothers.
Jorge Rodriguez--You mentioned that The Book Thief could go the way of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and "get zero," but did you forget that Extremely Loud was indeed nominated for Best Picture?
As for all of those doubting the Oscar chances of 12 Years a Slave based on McQueen's previous work, while I obviously have no way of knowing whether or not it will be a hit with the Academy, I think There Will Be Blood might be an apt comparison to make here: critically adored arthouse auteur doesn't compromise his style but nevertheless works in the slightly more Academy-friendly realm of period piece. I definitely don't think it's going to be the winner if it is indeed similar in approach to McQueen's previous films, but a nomination is certainly on the table. They do, after all, like to throw auteur-driven critics' darlings a bone once in a while (in addition to There Will Be Blood, other recent Best Picture nominees that come to mind are Amour and The Tree of Life, both of which were actually even less Academy-friendly than 12 Years a Slave looks to be).
Congrats on joining that pack (and making it more interesting). But why are you "Nathaniel R" (when everyone else has a last name)?
I am still in rage over the likely Streep category fraud, both her and Roberts have been rewarded more than their fair share over the years, Streep especially should not go along with it. So I am hoping that the Academy does a 'Reader' or 'Whale Rider' and don't fall for it!
PS. Congrats on being a Guru
This could be the year of the Clooney again.
Best Picture:
The Monuments Men
August: Osage County
Best Director
The Monuments Men
Best Actor
The Monuments Men
Best Supporting Actor
Gravity
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Monuments Men
Right now I'd predict Screenplay only, but he has a lot of options. And I don't get the fatigue. When you have an actor so fully committed to quality work, you shpuld celebrate him. Hollywood is a much better place because of George Clooney and his support for filmmakers like the Coens, Soderbergh, Cuaron and et cetera.
Cal - absolutely Clooney is to be cherished for his good taste. But that doesn't mean we need him celebrated at the Oscars every year. The one thing I never want the Oscars to become is the Emmys. Which is why I like it when they step out of their comfort zones and look beyond the "default" players unless the default contenders actually deserve the nominations. Which is only like 50% of the time
Yeah, but I don't think he is over-rewarded. In my opinion, he deserved every single nomination he got, except for the best picture for Argo. I disagree with the wins (he should have won best actor for Up in The Air and had Oscar-worthy work in Michael Clayton but could not beat DDL), but it is not like he is getting nominations for mediocre work.
And I must say he deserved more nominations than he got, actually. I'd nominate him easily for his terrific work in The American and The Ides of March, in supporting.
@ Jordan - I would not call (American) slavery a significantly "baity subject." By my reckoning, in the almost nine decades of AMPAS, only six films set in that period and milieu (Jezebel, Gone With the Wind, Glory, Cold Mountain, Django Unchained, Lincoln) have been awarded Oscars. Only two of them (Django, Lincoln) were about slavery per se, and some would even debate that point.
"Yeah, but I don't think he is over-rewarded. In my opinion, he deserved every single nomination he got, except for the best picture for Argo. I disagree with the wins (he should have won best actor for Up in The Air and had Oscar-worthy work in Michael Clayton but could not beat DDL), but it is not like he is getting nominations for mediocre work."
I vehemently disagree. Renner or Firth were the Best Actor of that set of nominees, but I also found Up in the Air to be a somewhat exploitative (Campaigning itself as the movie of 'our time' and having actual real people who've been fired get fired again on camera) trifle. Michael Clayton is not bad at all, more than Argo it is the ideal weekend movie marathon on cable that catches your attention when channel surfing, but Tilda and Wilkinson were best in show for me. He also got a lot of play for his Best Supporting Actor winning for being injured on-set and de-glamming majorly for the role. But that movie has not aged well at all. I didn't even like Jake Gyllenhaal's character a whole lot in Brokeback Mountain but I really hated that in addition to the Best Picture fiasco that it seemed to pass over Ledger, Williams, and Gyllenhaal for being too young to get rewarded in a 'their time will come' fashion. That and the impossibly self-serving speech probably cemented how respected he is with AMPAS.
But aside from Michael Clayton and Good Night, Good Luck, I can not really think of any of his work that was earned or actually stands the test of time. I mean, The Ides of March getting a screenplay nomination was like another notch in the bed for him and is that script really something to be proud of? Obviously, we disagree on that movie.
I did like his work in The American. It just simply was not an 'Oscar movie', sadly.
re: 12 Years a Slave, I do not think it can be applied to There Will Be Blood. Slavery is not as bait-y as the darkness of the America dream. That and PTA was a known commodity to AMPAS with 2 major movies already getting acting nods and also being credited with getting a good performance out of Adam Sandler. McQueen's works are celebrated by many critics but there is a disconnect with audiences. I know plenty of people who HATED Shame. They thought it was pretentious, sex-negative, and over-indulgent. Then there is the group of people who refused to see it due to the rating. I really need to see it before declaring it DOA or a real contender for BP.
What are your thoughts on out of the furnace. I think it looks good, but might be cliched. I think it will be overshadowed by dallas buyers club because both seem to be going for the gritty, but the story for DBC sounds way more compelling and the characters are far more colorful and humorous . Though i hear Garner gets the short end of the stick. I was a fan of scott coopers debut though. I am rooting for Her and Foxcatcher as well. I think American Hustle will be solid and easily a contender. So i don't have to root for it. Same with wolf. Forgot to mention 12 years a slave. love mcqueen. And i wouldn't mind Lee Daniels to get a nod because he is such an exciting filmmaker. I didn't like the butler as much as precious or the paperboy though. I seem to be the only one that loved the paperboy. Such a fearless movie. And Lee Daniels is easily one of the best actor directors around.
congrats!, you've earned it :D