Can "Creed" Go 12 Rounds With Oscar?
Wednesday, December 2, 2015 at 11:00AM 
In the past couple of days I've screened The Revenant, Joy, and Creed. Since the first two are still under embargo we're not allowed to speak of them yet. I will say these non spoilers: The Revenant continues the tradition of Inaritu's love of miserable arguably suicidal men, and Joy continues in the tradition of David O. Russell sandbox like playground for actors eager to have fun with their new toy parts (Isabella Rosselinni & Virginia Madsen & Edgar Ramirez brought me joy inside Joy).
But...embargo! Moving on.
As movie buffs well know, the original Rocky was a smash hit when it premiered in December 39 years ago, becoming the biggest box office hit of 1976, making a star of Sly Stallone, charting a #1 single ("Gonna Fly Now"), and earning an incredible 10 Oscar nominations. It eventually won Picture, Director, and Editing on the big night. And against unreal competition too: Network, Taxi Driver, Bound for Glory, and All The President's Men were the other Best Picture options. The Rocky series spawned a few popular sequels but eventually exhausted its welcome as film franchises always do. Creed smartly plays like both a straight sequel (VII) and a spinoff or rebirth with Rocky Balboa passing the franchise torch to Apollo Creed's son Adonis (Michael B Jordan) who was born after his father's death.
So let's talk Creed and Oscar and the ways it could well factor into the Oscar race after the jump...
Hollywood loves franchises because they're easy to market and safe(r) risk. As a result they tend to feel like the safest of movies and less than thrilling except in the mechanical setpiece sense. The Oscars, moreso than Hollywood, have always struggled with the battle between art & commerce at the movies. They way they usually approach that struggle in the realm of pure commerce (i.e. franchises) is to ignore it or let it dissipate over time with fewer and fewer nominations for a film series if they loved the first one. Unless of course a sequel is just too good to be ignored (see Skyfall or The Dark Knight... complete anomalies in Oscar's response to the James Bond and Batman series respectively).
The pure commerce feel of sequels is why it's so especially rewarding when a franchise film is so good that you don't have to feel ashamed that you love it or easily manipulated into spending yet more money on something you've already bought in slightly different formation in previous years. Now, before we go any further let's not get crazy: in the realm of sequels that outdo themselves and all conceivable expectations, Creed is no Mad Max Fury Road. What is? It's not genius filmmaking and it doesn't tower over its predecessors like George Miller's fourth go at his apocalyptic series. But Creed is a fun involving watch and probably more Oscar accessible.
First and foremost it plays on or at least with nostalgia for an Oscar champ of the past and is successful in the same kind of way: it's easy triumph-of-the-spirit rousing but also committed to being character based. It's a very well crafted traditional crowd pleaser. And it's probably worth noting, though Oscar pundits rarely note this, that AMPAS is arguably more fond of boxing than any other sport. Previous boxing films that were well received by Oscar voters include:
- The Champ (4 noms /2 wins for 1931)
- Somebody Up There Likes Me (3 noms / 2 wins for 1956)
- Rocky (10 noms / 3 wins for 1976)
- Raging Bull (8 noms / 2 wins for 1980)
- Rocky III (1 nomination for 1982)
- Ali (2 nominations for 2001)
- Million Dollar Baby (7 noms / 4 wins for 2004)
- Cinderella Man (3 nominations for 2005)
- The Fighter (7 noms / 2 wins for 2010)
(Of these films only Ali and Cinderella Man were seen as underperformers on nomination morning. And that's not even including Oscar nominees that involve boxing in the plot or characterizations that aren't about boxing like From Here to Eternity, The Quiet Man, and The Hurricane)
The branches that are the most likely to bite, statistically speaking, are actors and editors. But I'm sensing an opening in the top categories (and an absence of populist giants outside of The Martian and Inside Out). Plus Ryan Coogler and Michael B Jordan may well have momentum given the respect for Fruitvale (not nominated but it was in the discussion) and the ongoing pressures for the Academy to diversify. For the moment at least I'm thinking it will happen in at least three and possibly more categories.
UPDATED OSCAR CHARTS
Charts in which Creed moved way up: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Film Editing
All Charts Updated Yesterday: Actress, Suppporting Actress, Screenplay, Visual Categories, Aural Categories, Foreign Film, Animation & Documentary, and the Index Page o' Predictions
Reader Comments (24)
I'm wondering - based on all the reasons you mentioned - if this will end up being a bigger player than originally thought. Like you point out, Stallone, Jordan (McKellan and even Redmayne, with his film's poor reviews, don't seem like sure things), Coogler and Picture all could be within reach. Although, if Stallone is the ONLY nominee from the film (also a possibility) and the minority star and director are not nominated, I could see THAT being a problem for people.
Fury Road is the most overrated thing to ever happen to movies in 2015. It shows what a shit year it has been when that is considered captain save a ho.
No one matches the quality Cameron did for women in action movies: Weaver and Hamilton are still the gold standard. I like Theron but it is not that deep.
In fact when I saw Fury Road it reminded me how underrated Thunder Dome actually is.
I'm rooting for Creed in five categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Supp Actor, and Cinematography.
Never ever imagined Stallone would overcome his Razzie speckled filmography. Time for a revisit to "Rhinestone?"
Doggone it. I had no interest in seeing this, not even considering the promise of MBJ's naked, glistening torso, but people who've seen it keep mentioning these Oscar chances, so I guess I should.
Troy H: You should see it because outside of Straight Outta Compton and Chi-Raq there is nothing going on this year in black film earning this kind of consideration. Ryan Coogler made a very personal film in the frame work of a studio picture.
AMPAS is actually even more fond of boxing films than what you've listed:
Body and Soul (1947)
The Champion (1949)
The Great White Hope (1970)
The Champ - Jon Voight Version (1979)
The Hurricane (1999)
When We Were Kings (1996)
I'm sure there are many more
AMPAS is actually even more fond of boxing films than what you've listed:
Body and Soul (1947)
The Champion (1949)
The Great White Hope (1970)
The Champ - Jon Voight Version (1979)
The Hurricane (1999)
When We Were Kings (1996)
I'm sure there are many more
Please do not let this happen. I can't stand the first Rocky, now we get another cliche ridden sequel and it's in the running for the Oscars?
It's like someone telling me that Roberto Benigni is back with another film -"Life is Still Beautiful".
Please No.
trivia!
If Stallone is nominated again for playing Rocky Balboa, he’ll be the sixth performer to be nominated twice for playing the same character, joining Bing Crosby (“Father O’Malley” in Going My Way and The Bells of St. Mary), Peter O’Toole (“Henry II” in Becket and The Lion in Winter), Al Pacino (“Michael Corleone” in The Godfather and The Godfather Part II), Paul Newman (“Eddie Felson” in The Hustler and The Color of Money) and Cate Blanchett (“Elizabeth”, in Elizabeth and Elizabeth 2: Full Throttle).
What’s more, he’ll surpass Newman’s record (25 years!) for the longest time between same-character nominations: Rocky came out in 1976, which would put an incredible 39 years between the two noms!
(h/t to Jon Mullich and his evergreen Oscar trivia quiz at www.madbeast.com/quiz.htm)
I find it funny that i was laughed off a year ago for picking Stallone as wild card nom and now its funny that everyone is jumping on the wagon. So allow me to enjoy a laugh especially when some are claiming they were the first to predict this in the summer or early fall. Im not bragging, but I'm definitely smiling. But in all honesty I'm a little biased because i'm a huge Rocky fan and I had a feeling Coogler would bring something special out of Sly. So im enjoying this moment even if it doesn't last.
Though at the same time I'm conflicted because I would love Keaton to finally win as well, but sacrifices need to made.
NATHANIEL, you're predicting two brazilian movies to win oscar nominations!!
My heart just stoped
LadyEdith - I am with you. Isn't it considered an embarassment that the original Rocky (date rape scene and all!) beat 3 major classics of cinema to the Best Picture Oscar? People really want to repeat that with sequel number five?
If Stallone wins, he'll actually replace Benigni as the most embarrassing Oscar winner in my lifetime. Benigni at least was in a couple Jom Jarmusch movies.
Let Rocky go and Stallone with it. He probably does the classic ring trainer old man.
How many of you disparaging the possibility of Stallone winning an Oscar have actually seen the film and can properly evaluate the merits of his performance in it?
teppo2 -- i was gonna say this. I don't like him at all as an actor from his heyday and he was so good in this, never pushing too hard but still nailing the emotional crux of it.
Josh -- i didn't laugh you off. i always had him in the chart somewhere -- the narrative was easy to see, just not plausible unless the movie was good. which it is. so we all win.
I do think there's a decent-sized constituency in the Academy that will want to make sure there are some notable non-white nominees, which Jordan and Coogler could capitalize on, since there's a ton of love for the film and there sadly isn't much else to choose from (Straight Outta Compton is not going to play with the Academy).
I found Creed to be a fun film with great directorial choices from Ryan Coogler who assembled a wonderful below the line team, and excellent performances from Michael B. Jordan and Sylvester Stallone. The Rocky franchise is one that has become so ingrained in popular American culture that it is easy to understand why many are dismissing it sight unseen. If those who doubt it give it a chance, they may very well be surprised to find the rare sequel that elevates and freshens up the formula while remaining true to it's roots. When those familiar trumpets finally blair and you hear that Rocky theme known by all through osmosis of culture, tell me you don't feel like you can take on the world. For these reasons, I think Creed will be a huge hit with not just audiences, but the Academy as well.
Nathaniel: I wasn't talking of you in particular. But I find the situation funny. Not so angry about it. I get why I was laughed off but it's fun to be right. No hard feelings. And it's true we all win in the end :)
If anyone is "overdue" in the supporting actor category, it's Harvey Keitel. Decades of thoughtful, daring artistic work. How many first time directors has he worked with, helping them achieve their dream to make a film? When you look back at his performances, they're still so fresh, you just say, wow, who is that guy?
When I think of Sylvester Stallone now, I think of him in Demolition Man. For some reason, that plays constantly on TV. Stallone and Sandra Bullock are great together, and Stallone is just perfect for this action/ comedy. But Rocky is not a rewatch for me. So I have good will for Stallone, but I would grieve if Keitel was unacknowledged yet again.
I'm gonna say it and it doesn't bother me that I'm in the minority, but Creed was better than Mad Max: Fury Road. I enjoyed Mad Max, but besides its exciting action sequences, great stunts and the addition of a memorable heroine, it's just another good genre movie. It's not a game-changer like so many people believe.
Creed is the Skyfall of 2015. It perfectly blends the end of one franchise with the beginning of another and never feels false (which is something even Skyfall faltered with a little bit). Don't make judgments on the film if you haven't seen it, but also don't expect it to be the best movie of the year. It's not the best, but it's a very well-crafted movie with a pair of great performances and another really good one. Even the love story feels as sweet as the one in the original Rocky. Creed is the best sequel in a franchise that has resurrected itself.
As for nominations, let's just say that Michael B. Jordan is better than recent NBR winner Matt Damon in The Martian, but he won't be nominated. Sylvester Stallone should snag a nomination, but I think Michael Keaton or Mark Ruffalo will win for Spotlight in a case of category fraud. Creed should at least be nominated for Editing and I also think it's worthy of a Cinematography nod, but it probably won't get one.
I saw Creed over the Thanksgiving weekend and found it super entertaining and well-acted. Stallone would be a VERY deserving nominee. He was fantastic and deserving of the praise he has received.
teppo2--exactly. Thank you.
I'm really skeptical about this one, but you almost sold me on this on.