Post Predictions Oscar Jitters
Friday, February 20, 2015 at 1:00PM Do you think Oscar wishes he had more of a bubble butt?
Have you voted on our Oscar charts? It's your last day to vote for your PICTURE, DIRECTOR, ACTOR, ACTRESS, SUPPORTING ACTRESS, SUPPORTING ACTOR, and SCREENPLAY preferences. I'll announce the Reader's Choice winners tomorrow.
If you found my "final predictions post" here yesterday a bit baffling in its haphazhard order -- I'm always a mess on Oscar weekend -- I'd suggest reading my far more organized final take at Towleroad which reiterates all the arguments I've been making the past month but in a more \readable fashion. If you read this blog every day you already know what I'm expecting but naturally I'm having "I'll be so wrong!" jitters. I like being wrong, don't get me wrong (super predictable set in stone years are dull) but I don't like being too wrong. It's a fine distinction but an important one!
My Great Fear is that Grand Budapest loses two prizes I predicted it for (Makeup and Costumes) to inferior work (i.e. all of its competitors in those categories).
My Great Dream is that Michael Keaton surprises and takes Best Actor against the odds because it has been forever since we've had an "all fictional characters winning" years. 1997 to be exact when As Good As it Gets, LA Confidential, and Good Will Hunting provided a brief reprieve from the exhausting dominance of biopic mimicry.
Everyone was applauding Shirley Booth in the 1952/1953 seasonMy Great Confusion is shared with all. No matter how I weigh it, I can't figure out the Birdman vs Boyhood situation. No matter what your feelings about either, you have to admit that they'd be atypical winners. Birdman is quite cerebral and weird and funny (none of which generally describe Oscar winners) and Boyhood is quite "small" and indie-feeling despite its epic 12 years in the making slant. So I remind myself that I love both of them and either will make a great Best Picture so let the chips fall where they may.
But in terms of the Academy both seem "soft" if you will. If people love Birdman so much why isn't Keaton the Best Actor frontrunner and if people love Boyhood so much why does Birdman keep winning guild prizes? I keep coming up with scenarios wherein the Best Picture wins only one other Oscar and that has not happened since The Greatest Show on Earth (1952). And never before that until you go back to the 1940 and earlier when they had far less categories than they have now. Only 2 Oscars for the Best Picture winner seems highly unlikely but then 1952 might be a magic coincidence film year since that was also the last year a woman in her fifties won Best Actress.
Reader Comments (34)
The Boyhood/Birdman split could make it possible for a third film to slip through. I expect Boyhood to come out on top, but Sniper, Imitation Game and GBH shouldn't be counted out. A lot will depend on the second choice after the first count. I can't imagine any one film will carry the day with 50% on first count.
I have a question: If Moore, Keaton, Arquette & Simmons win (Which I think would be one of the Best group of winners EVER!) would that be the oldest line up of winners?
My no guts, no glory prediction is that The Grand Budapest Hotel sneaks in for best picture as a result of preferential voting. How lovely that would be!
Ok, I forced myself to see The Theory of Everything last night and I can finally agree with you re: Keaton. He deserves to win - but I'm picking Redmayne for my pool.
I just couldn't sit with the only-two-wins-one-of-them-best-picture for Boyhood, so I added editing to my predictions.
Picture: Boyhood
Director: Birdman, Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Actor: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Documentary Feature: CitizenFour
Foreign Language Feature: Ida (Poland)
Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Cinematography: Birdman
Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Editing: Boyhood
Makeup and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Score: The Theory of Everything
Song: Glory, Selma
Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Sound Editing: American Sniper
Sound Mixing: Whiplash
Visual Effects: Interstellar
Animated Short: Feast
Documentary Short: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Live Action: The Phone Call
That works out to...
American Sniper 1
Birdman 3
Boyhood 3
The Grand Budapest Hotel 4
The Imitation Game 1
Selma 1
The Theory of Everything 1
Whiplash 2
Interstellar 1
Still Alice 1
Wow, Oscar's butt is as flat as mine.
After reading four Brutally Honest Oscar ballots that are very dissimilar (and of course not necessarily representative – Feinberg could have collected dozens of these and only published the ones that create a certain "narrative"), I can't ignore the fact that they all voted for Guardians of the Galaxy for Hair and Makeup...and none of them picked Interstellar for Visual Effects, although they all are in lock-step about the Acting...um, locks.
stjean-probably nothing will ever beat 1981, with Kate Hepburn, Henry Fonda, John Gielgud, and youngster Maureen Stapleton (in her mid-fifties) all making up the list.
I am in such a state over the fact that two of my favourite 2014 films - BIRDMAN ETC. and BOYHOOD - are the frontrunners. This never happens. This is why I am picking AMERICAN SNIPER for the win, because my favourites hardly ever win (NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN was the last time). And for all those who say it won't happen....everyone was saying before the nominations that Cotillard wouldn't make it, weren't they?
I hope Boyhood wins Picture and Director. I think Birdman was the better made film, I do, I think it has less flaws than Boyhood, but Boyhood seems like such a rare, unique, once-in-a-lifetime gift that I actually like it more. It's also a lot less pretentious, but part of that feeling comes from the awards season backlash against Boyhood from Birdman groupies that has left a bad taste in my mouth and has made me forget how great Birdman actually is. I think Birdman really was a major directorial feat too, but the skill and precision and risk it took to make a 12 year picture, and how against the grain and down-to-earth Boyhood is makes me root for Richard Linklater. It seems like the underdog now despite starting out as the frontrunner so now I'm rooting for it even more.
I'm mostly excited to see Julianne Moore and Patricia Arquette get their little gold men. I love both of them and think they're highly deserving. I hope Michael Keaton wins but Eddie Redmayne is a nice guy so I won't be mad. Rooting for fictional characters though.
I'm intrigued by the potential tallies for each film this year, because it seems like the range is unusually big for each one. What I mean is that there really aren't that many true locks this year. By my count, only five categories seem locked up (Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Production Design). And because each of those categories is going to a different film, there is not a single movie this year that looks guaranteed to win more than one Oscar. It's quite possible that this ends up being like 2005 where no one film won more than 3, which I'm pretty sure is the all-time record for lowest "biggest winner" tally of the night.
By my estimation, here are the potential tallies for the big players:
Boyhood- At least 1, at most 4 (in order of likelihood: Supporting Actress, Editing, Director, Picture...no, I'm not even going to consider it a possibility for Original Screenplay, because at this point I'd consider that a genuine upset)
Birdman- At least 1, at most 6 (in order of likelihood: Cinematography, Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing, Actor)
The Grand Budapest Hotel- At least 1, at most 5 (in order of likelihood: Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup/Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Screenplay)
Whiplash- At least 1, at most 4 (in order of likelihood: Supporting Actor, Sound Mixing, Editing, Adapted Screenplay)
American Sniper- Possibly nothing, at most 4 (in order of likelihood: Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Film Editing, Adapted Screenplay)
The Theory of Everything- Possibly nothing (but most likely at least 1), at most 3 (in order of likelihood: Actor, Original Score, Adapted Screenplay)
The Imitation Game- Possibly nothing, at most 2 (in order of likelihood: Adapted Screenplay, Original Score)
Note that I realize each of those films *could* win more than I listed as possibilities, but I just listed the categories where I think they have a genuine chance of winning.
So while Birdman stands to win the most Oscars this year, I think it will realistically end up with 3 or 4, and that's *if* it indeed wins Best Picture.
The Grand Budapest Hotel, on the other hand, could REALISTICALLY win 5 Oscars. I fully expect it to have the most wins this year. Hell, it could win 4 and would probably still be the leader, or at least tied for it.
Part of me does wonder if there could be a big upset win for Grand Budapest in the Best Picture category. It just seems like the kind of year that could give us a huge surprise like that. The thing is that while I believe in my mind that Birdman will win Best Picture, I don't feel it in my gut. I know that's a silly thing to say, but sometimes gut feelings pay off. I'm not trying to brag or anything, but I was one of the few people who predicted both Alan Arkin's and Tilda Swinton's wins in their respective years. And those were gut feelings. My gut feeling this year tells me that Birdman won't win the big prize, despite the guild support. Still, I feel like I'd be foolish to bet against it. Luckily, I still have 2 days to make my final prediction. But I may eventually just throw up my arms and go for the "no guts, no glory" pick of Grand Budapest, even if just to brag in the unlikely even that it happens.
I think the writing is on the wall for Birdman to take both BP and BD, which I'm none too happy about. That film is not nearly as smart as it thinks it is, IMO.
I'm on team Boyhood 100%.
I'm in the Birdman camp - have nothing against Boyhood but I think it'd be enough if it won supporting actress. I actually liked Wild way more than Boyhood , but it didn't get too much love, so I don't really think that Boyhood camp should complain about anything. It got more than it deserved, imho of course.
As for The Theory of Everything - the less it wins , the better. I only watched till the end because I was sitting in the middle of a row and didn't want to disturb so many people . Maybe if The Academy stops rewarding all these biopics and the "let's see who transforms best into the real person they're playing " attitude, we'll be able to get on with the 21st century in movies.
Shirley Booth made the cover of Time!
I like being wrong, don't get me wrong (super predictable set in stone years are dull) but I don't like being too wrong. It's a fine distinction but an important one!
****
Nathaniel, mind if I borrow this classic line this weekend!
Thanks again for all your super Oscar coverage this season. This is my favorite site for loving the Academy Awards. You do it right, sir.
Please, Oscar gods, give Best Picture to Birdman. And I will be absolutely crushed if Michael Keaton doesn't win Best Actor. This is the award I want most to happen. He deserves it.
One last wish for the ceremony, genie: We need 50th anniversary celebrations of The Sound of Music and Doctor Zhivago. And as John T. said, we need both Julies--Andrews and Christie--to present Best Picture. Oh, and Christopher and Omar to join them.
Happy Oscar Weekend to all!
Brookesboy-I agree, that's a great line. I love being surprised at the Oscars and always hope for a major upset to shake things up...but I also want to win my Oscar prediction contest too!
Since the critics awards days, my gut told me Innaritu could win Director while Boyhood seemed a lock for BP. Now, obviously, Boyhood is no longer a lock, but my gut still tells me that's how it might shake out. Then again, I don't think I've seen one instance of an awards event splitting between Boyhood and Birdman for BP/BD. It's almost as if it's a one-or-the-other scenario. I guess I'm more confident that Boyhood will win BP and BD is 50/50. I'd actually prefer Birdman to win both.
This year, as long as the upset does NOT happen in the Best Actress category I"ll be fine.
I love suprises! And just for the sake of it here is how I would rank the Ladies in that category this year: Moore(like WAAAYYY above the other ones)-Witherspoon-Jones-Cotillard-Pike
I don't think Birdman has Cinematography locked up. Not everyone appreciated the constant camera movement, Chivo won last year........I think it's Turner (for those who have seen it) or GBH.
Henry-- Of course there are detractors, and there are of course those who feel Birdman's cinematography is just a gimmick, but there's no way there's enough of them to pull off an upset in this category. I would say MAYBE if there were a clear alternative, but I can't see the anti-Birdman camp all rallying around one of the other competitors in large enough numbers to get it a win.
The only way--and I mean the ONLY way--I could see an upset happening in Best Cinematography is if Grand Budapest Hotel wins due to voters checking it off in ALL of the tech categories. But I'd be really surprised.
Edwin - my self-created "ballot" that I'll have in front of me with a highlighter is in that format. This year I'm all about the ranges, too.
I have Sniper 0-4; Birdman 1-7; Boyhood 1-5; Budapest 2-6; Imitation 0-1; Selma 1; Theory 0-2; Whiplash 1-4; Interstellar 0-4.
Basinger was playing a Veronica Lake look-alike so does she count as a real character?
I'm joking. Anyway, back in 97 I was OK with her win, but I recently re-watched the movie and I was so unimpressed. It should have gone to Julianne or the super gifted Joan Cusack (or Alison Elliott who wasn't even nominated).
The Shirley Booth cover is inspiring. If character actresses were on magazines more often the world would somehow become a more pleasant place.
KRISTEN STEWART JUST WON A CESAR FOR HER PERFORMANCE IN CLOUDS OF SILS MARIA!
now I'm ready for all the shitstorm sunday's Oscar will give.
It happened in the 40's actually - Rebecca won only best picture and cinematography. :)
now that I've watched all five Best Actress nominated films, based on the performance alone - don't stone me to death - I'd give it Reese!
I can see a Birdman/Linklater split. Linklater seems to be doing really well on all of the various Academy ballots published on the web by EW, THR and the LA Times - even if the voters don't particularly like the film, they want to recognize his achievement. But it's hard to ignore Birdman's success with the guilds.
Philip H - You and I are on the same wavelength this awards season. Even by Oscar season standards, the "Birdman groupies" have been particularly hard to take this year. It's made me like the film less.
Yavor -- i love Reese in that too (she made my lineup). I think it's her best work.
@ Suzanne: That's kinda how I feel about Boyhood right now.
Paul - I get what you're saying (and I know you weren't even responding to me directly lol), but for me in particular, it was so tiresome on HitFix/In Contention where some fuckboys were literally saying things like "I don't see why anyone would like Boyhood, its so boring and is so long, nothing happens, Andy's mom in Toy Story 3 was more effective than Patricia Arquette, if you liked it you really need mental help" ... like, calm down. It's really not that serious. Whenever people take it to a personal level I can't really keep up anymore. I have to check myself out.
Nathaniel- have you been reading THR's Brutally Honest Oscar ballots? I caught up with them this morning and would love to hear your thoughts on the following statements:
On Supp. Actor: "I thought [Foxcatcher's Mark] Ruffalo was so nuanced and understated. But I don't know if he had as much screen time as [Whiplash's] J.K. [Simmons] — and J.K. was just unreal. Vote: Simmons"
On Supp. Actress: "Streep's out 'cause I just can't do it again. The role wasn't worthy — she did it as well as you can do it, but it just wasn't a great role — I mean, come on."
On Foreign Lang: "I saw one film and I thought it was excellent: Ida. Everything about it was fantastic. Vote: Ida"
Also on FL: "I didn't get around to seeing any of them. You want the truth? I shouldn't have voted, but I did. This is bad, but here's the power of advertising: everywhere I looked, I saw pictures of this stupid carcass — whatever the f--- that was — and I thought, "That's a cool-looking thing." And I f---ing voted for a movie based on the dead whatever it was in the ad thinking that it looked cool. Vote: Leviathan"
Evan, thanks for sharing these THR stories, only proves everything is as fake as fake can get. It's great they were honest about it. Meryl has been frank about it as well saying something in lines of "Yes, the Oscars, you get to vote for your friends" in a Manchurian Candidate interview.
Paul, have people really been comparing Birdman to Crash and The King's Speech? Because that's the level of discourse I've seen surrounding LAFCA and NYFCC winner Boyhood.
Suzanne, some of the things the Brutally Honest Oscar voters say about Birdman are kind compared to some things I've heard/read.