Oscar Chart Updates in All Categories!
Wednesday, October 26, 2016 at 10:30AM 
We're just 90 days away from our Christmas (Oscar Nomination Morning) and 123 days away from Hollywood's High Holy Night now (our New Year's Eve, the Oscar Ceremony) and we can definitely see the excitement building. All charts have been updated to reflect current buzz mixed with crystal ball hunches.
The biggest mover on the chart is Lion moving up in multiple categories for 6 predicted nominations. It won the Audience Award at Middleburg Film Festival this weekend (beating La La Land which beat it for the same prize in Toronto). With each festival outing it proves itself a true crowd pleaser and with its smartly positioned November release (away from one of the biggest Christmas gluts we've ever seen) it will have built up considerable momentum by the time precursors are hitting.
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Lion, Oscars (16)
Reader Comments (32)
It is so annoying and weird that we're already at the end of October and we still haven't seen SO many nominees. With everything coming out in December, there's just no way for them all to succeed. These studios are shooting their own films in the foot.
I hate what the Weinsteins did to The Founder. Maybe it's a bad film, but then why open it in December? After heading two consecutive Best Picture winners, Keaton deserves his Oscar. I hope he'll get it someday.
Jackie - seven nominations but no score? I haven't seen it, but every review praises the score.
Could Jackie win? Seven nominations, an important history figure, a respected director... It sounds just like The Pianist against Chicago, but it could win even best picture. It's Kennedy stuff.
Sorry to be so crass and not cinefiliac, but dayum, Dev looks babilicious in that pic.
Jackie is either a 2nd coronation for Portman or a bust.
No Rules Don't Apply in top tier stuff? Given Beatty's history that seems odd and Awards Daily seems to like it. What do you know that we don't?
I'm glad it's good for Portman's sake, but really? Another fucking movie about the Kennedys? I just read Mo Ryan's piece in Variety about the miniseries, The Crown, and I'm thinking, another fucking movie about the Windsor family? That said, I'll probably watch both.
As I posted here before, most excited to see the L & Ms (LaLaLand, Lion, Loving, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea)
Weirdly the nomination / win I most want to see is Lin Manuel Miranda for Moana,. A chance for EGOT!
I do think Portman may win if the movie proves that strong.
She'll follow Jodie Foster steps. A supporting nomination, a leading win, a starting career as a director, then a second leading nonination for a very uncomfortable and auterial movie...
In a few years she'll be nominated for maybe her best performance (like Foster's Nell) and will be forgotten forever.
In 2035 she comes out as a lesbian.
I just don't know why, but I don't see Natalie Portman's nomination taking place. Jackie may be a million times better than the films about Grace (Nicole Kidman) and Diana (Naomie Watts), but the stigma is there.
I'd much rather see the following line-up:
Benning
Huppert
Negga
Stone
Streep.
I wouldn't mind if Jessica Chastain or Amy Adams for "Nocturnal Animals" take Streep's place.
I'd love to see Huppert get her nomination -- she won't win but that's a good way to introduce her ridiculously rich body of work to mainstream attention.
Not having seen some of the films in which these actresses appear, I'd like to see this lineup:
Amy Adams
Kate Beckinsale
Rebecca Hall
Isabelle Huppert
Ruth Negga
But it's most probably going to look like this:
Amy Adams
Annette Bening
Natalie Portman
Emma Stone
Meryl Streep
I think Hamilton fever will carry Lin Manuel to a win.
Don't discount the timing of LaLa Land co-songwriters Pasek and Paul having a probable huge critical hit opening on Broadway (Dear Evan Hansen) at the same time as Oscar fever hits. That and love for the film itself in top line categories could give Lin Manuel a run for his money.
Just wait, brookesboy, just wait...
Not thinking The Comedian could put De Niro into the conversation fot Lead Actor, Nat?
Just hoping that Lion doesn't get all that Oscar recognition (it's a good film, but it doesn't deserve it), while I'd love to see 20th Century Women nominated for Best Picture.
Good God, has Carol's criminal snub left you too scared to recognize Moonlight for a lock, though?
STinG -- yup. They are notoriously stingy with Queer films.
@Nathaniel - I agree with you on the queer film aspect, but I think the #Oscarssowhite uproar from last year, as well as the rapturous critical acclaim, will help push the movie to a best picture nominee. But only in the #6-10 slots.
Yeah I worry about Moonlight too. If the academy recognizes it it will be a sight to behold. Carol was as academy friendly as it gets while being a true queer movie and they just weren't there for it. And you'd think the prestige of Cate Blanchett would have eased the fear in their fragile little hearts but no, SNUB! Moonlight is a more visceral queer experience in some ways and less restrained it seems like so I think will kill at critics awards then will be snubbed criminally again. Watch for Sully, Silence, LaLa Land and Manchester by the Sea to be the industry favorites
I'm not a Mel Gibson fan, but I am surprised you don't have him anywhere in the Director charts Nathaniel.
Mel is getting A LOT of love from AACTA today: http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/movies/teresa-palmer-celebrates-as-hacksaw-ridge-leads-australian-academy-nominations-20161025-gsadpn.html
Snub x (Carol + Straight Outta Compton + Idris + Michael B. Jordan) = Moonlight bonanza.
(In my math class, anyway.)
Paul -- but you don't think LOVING & FENCES take care of some of that math for them?
oof, billy's long halftime walk stepped on a landmine with that nyff screening
@Ez - Not gonna happen, hollywood HATES Mel Gibson. His film and actors have a chance but him as a director? nope, never again.
@cal roth: I don't think I've ever even heard of Nell. Is the film itself any good?
@ Nathaniel
Well, Moonlgiht is covering areas that neither Loving nor Fences do: the queer angle obviously, but also contemporary urban life, contemporary black youth, dubious father figures and the indie film turf.
Juan, Adult Kevin and Chiron should be locking up 3 slots in the final five.
I think "The Dressmaker" will be dear to the hearts of the Best Costume voters. I bet this is one that they all saw. They are very clear on valuing their craft, more than going along with Best Picture talk.
Once again, those charts are a very useful tool for the awards race. Thanks!
A quick mistake on the Foreign Film chart: you mention Colombia as one of the countries who submitted the most w/o receiving a single nomination: well that streak stopped last year with 'Embrace of the Serpent' \o/ I hope other countries will join Colombia :)
Purely anecdotal but for what it's worth, the [few] industry people I know, nearly all of whom found Carol cold/underdeveloped/unsatisfying/etc all seem to love Moonlight.
I finally saw Hello, My Name Is Doris this evening. Sally Field blew me away. I've been a fan since the Gidget TV series - 50+ years ago! - but this has to be one of her best performances ever. As much as I worship Meryl Streep and hope she gets her 20th nomination for FFJ, I feel Field's performance was better.