All Oscar Charts Updated
Monday, December 10, 2018 at 12:04AM 
Remarkably, despite two weeks where a lot happened with critics awards and Globe nominations we still feel fairly confident about our Thanksgiving predictions. Perhaps we were extra prophetic during that previous holiday weekend? While not a lot of the actual predicted shortlists have changed (If Beale Street Could Talk, Green Book, and Vice all added one nomination to their predicted tally and Animation and Visual Effects have changed a little - unthinkably Annihilation was already eliminated from visual effects!), the rankings within the charts are significantly altered with a lot of races looking more firmed up. But perhaps SAG nominations next week will make us rethink? Have a look!
INDEX | PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR| SUPPORTING ACTRESS | SCREENPLAYS | FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM | VISUALS | SOUNDS | ANIMATION & DOCUMENTARY
Oscars (18), Punditry
Reader Comments (22)
Annihilation’s exclusion from the shortlist is the biggest disappointment in this young film year
Not feeling brave enough to add LAFCA Supporting actor winner or runner-up even to your long-list I see.
I realise that Steven Yuen & Hugh Grant are both massive long-shots, but they will have some fans (and the sort of performances - foreign language, comedy - that we wish the Academy would be more interested in).
Hopefully BFCA & SAG this week can completely stun us all and add some new faces to the mix, too.
If Dafoe and Hawke are wrestling for the arty film slot, Malek has a free highway. And straight people loved the movie.
I'm surprised tt Marielle Heller was not mentioned in the dir long shot. Actually she was not mentioned at all??!
Your Tier 3 in Foreign Language is particularly strong. I loved Dogman.
Sill lighting a candle for Davis and Debicki.
I don’t think that’s a picture of Charlize Theron in the charts??
Ethan Hawke should be a lock.
Ugh. If Charlize can't make the Oscars' lineup, I really hope she gets a Film Bitch nom. Her Golden Globe nomination was the best surprise of the year.
They already announced the visual effects semifinalists? How did I miss that?
Wildlife in adapted...12 people saw that movie, Nat, it sunk without a trace
Does the BFCA nom help Toni Collette?
@PoliVamp: Certainly doesn't hurt. But it looks like those exact 7 are vying for 5 places, and Toni has been thought to be on the outside looking in. Critics have been helping her, the Globes hurt.
Elsie Fisher should definitely be above Rosamund Pike, Carey Mulligan, and Julia Roberts.
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs will show up somewhere below the line, costume, cinematography, or score. People are watching it on Netflix and talking about it a ton also there are billboards EVERYWHERE for it in LA.
I still wouldn't rule out FIRST MAN for Best Picture. It could get a lot of craft nods - and it got 10 nominations for the Critics' Choice Awards, including Best Picture.
Great update. Only quibble would be Adapted Screenplay. Death of Stalin and (especially) Wildlife are way too low profile to sneak in above some combination of A Star is Born, Crazy Rich Asians, and Widows. My guess is Crazy Rich Asians and Widows sneak in above the others.
So happy with all the positive comments and support that Glenn has in this blog... yesterday I was watching a discussion at Gold Derby and one of his top Critics Tom O’Neil every time that Glenn was mentioned he would laugh about her chances and he would praise Gaga’a work shading Glenn, I don’t think that ok.. I am a Gaga fan but I don’t think she adds something to Hollywood, Gaga is not making more movies any time soon, she’s going to be at her Vegas residency plus I don’t think her performance is great, is solid good but not Oscar worthy on the other hand Glenn is opening the door for all those actresses over 60 that are not Meryl Streep... I really really hope that this year the Academy gets it right, rewarding the veteran actress is opening a door for other actresses projects, giving Gaga an Oscar is just remainder that no matter what if you are not young you should not expect recognition
Paranoid Android - Death of Stalin is actually a really shrewd pick by Nathaniel. The often idiosyncratic writers branch - many of whom are British - have nominated Armando Ianucci for less (In the Loop).
Gillian Flynn couldn't even get in for her better screenplay, and the idea writers will deem TDOS's deft writing inferior to ASIB (the film's weakest quality) and Crazy Rich Asians is pretty laughable when you think about it. I have faith in them.
Paranoid & Evangelina -- the lack of a nomination for GONE GIRL is why I dont think WIDOWS is getting in . GONE GIRL is a better script and was a huge hit and still didnt make it in. I'm not worried about THE DEATH OF STALIN but I put WILDLIFE in because i couldn't figure out what would make the fifth slot. I think all of the other films (besides the top four listed) have big strikes against them in some way or another within the writers branch. WILDLIFE at least has a good 'narrative' given that a well-liked, constantly working acting couple wrote it and one of them directed it as his first feature. And while its true that WILDLIFE flopped it's not "unseen" in the industry given how many screenings and Q&As there were for it.
Valentina -- that's also somethign I feel about Gaga. I dont like "novelty" wins in the acting categories. So even if i thought Lady Gaga was one of the five best of the year (I don't even though I LOOOOOOVE the movie) i would hesitate before voting for her.
Claran -- that was a mistake regarding HELLER. She was previously in the top 15 but she clearly has no traction for her terrific directing 😭 so i dropped her from the top 15 but should have added her in the longlist.
OMG !!! Nat you reply to my comment 😭thank you !
Having say that .. I like a Star is born, I didn’t love it.. I don’t think the adaptation is good for the times that we are living in.. first of all Ally/Esther is so passive so submissive, I mean we are in 2018! And Ally stayed with Jackson even after he hurt her feelings, call her ugly and used her as an excuse to his problems.... that does not sounds right to me.. the A Star is Born from 1954 goes with the times even the Babs is Born goes along with the times, but I think this one is a safe movie with TONS of money behind, this one comes closer with the kind of story line that the Janet Gaynor has and that one has the most submissive passive Esther of them all and that in 2018 is not ok.. plus Gaga’s performance scrambles when Bradley Cooper is around or in her big dramatic moments, because let’s be honest this movie is about Jackson Maine and not about Ally, all the other version focuses more on her, but here I would dare to say that if you put away the final scene you can submit Gaga as a supporting actress, this was since Bradley Cooper took over the project Bradley Cooper show rewarding Gaga is rewarding The reality of inequality of genders, Jackson’s feelings are important, Ally’s feelings can be easily set aside for the greater good...
Glenn should win this Oscar, and if I could tell this to all the academy members I could make them see that a Gaga win isn’t going to age well, not only because of her performances or the fact that she beat Glenn Close last chance, but because her character is the rejection of the empowerment of the woman of 2018 ...
Ps I love your work !!!!