SAG Predictions!

Look at this table! If this is not just placeholders but actual seating this table is going to get a lot of camera time with Squid Game, Gaga & Salma from House of Gucci, Will Smith and Jessica Chastain. Plus White Lotus's Alexandra Daddario, and Ms Lifetime Achievement Helen Mirren. The ceremony airs live this Sunday February 27, 2022, 8:00 PM EST on TNT and TBS and again at 11 PM for an encore if you missed the earlier broadcast. Okay! Predictions after the jump...

MOVIES

OUTSTANDING ACTRESS

• Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
• Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
• Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
• Jennifer Hudson, Respect
• Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

SHOULD WIN: Chastain or Colman would be very deserving winners (both honored right here) though we're rooting for Chastain since she hasn't won major showbiz prizes yet and what are they waiting for?

WILL WIN: We're going to guess that Being the Ricardos lack of a "Cast" nomination suggests that SAG didn't love Being the Ricardos as much as you'd think given that that they nominated both of its leads. So we're predicting that Lady Gaga emerges as the winner -- as a rebuttal to the Academy (like they did with Idris Elba) and due to general enthusiasm for Gucci with SAG.  (But really we could see anyone winning -- even Hudson who also wasn't Oscar nominated -- save Colman. We think The Lost Daughter is a bit highbrow for SAG voters. 

OUTSTANDING ACTOR

• Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
• Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
• Andrew Garfield, tick...tick... BOOM!
• Will Smith, King Richard
• Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

SHOULD WIN: Cumberbatch does his best screen work in the year's best film so we'd love to see that happen.

WILL WIN: But that Cast nomination for King Richard reminds us that this was Will Smith's to lose all along. So we're guessing Smith. Anyone but Will or Benedict would be a surprise but can you imagine the online response if Garfield pulls this off? 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
• Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
• Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
• Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
• Ruth Negga, Passing

SHOULD WIN Ruth Negga, who gave the best screen performance of the year (in any category). But since she's not nominated for the Oscar and it's Passing's only nomination at SAG we can't imagine her winning.

WILL WIN: Though Dunst has the Hollywood mainstay 'it's about time!!!' factor, we're guessing they'll want to crown a new star in Ariana DeBose. 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR 

• Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
• Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
• Troy Kotsur, CODA
• Jared Leto, House of Gucci
• Kodi Smit-McPhee, Power of the Dog

SHOULD WIN: Kodi Smit McPhee though it'd be a kick to see Bradley Cooper surprise for a perfect and wildly entertaining two-scene performance.

WILL WIN : This is a tough call. The sentiment is there for Troy Kotsur but Kodi Smit-McPhee has been collecting every win thus far (albeit not televised wins). So... very hesitantly we're saying Smit-McPhee since they have a second option for awarding Kotsur.

STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

• Black Widow
• Dune
• The Matrix Resurrections
• No Time To Die
• Shang Chi

SHOULD WIN: It feels obvious that either No Time To Die or Shang Chi deserves this given all that impressive and intense hand to hand action. And yet...

WILL WIN: This is the place that Dune can actually pick up a major showbiz trophy before the Oscars and as one of the year's most respected box office smash, we think it'll happen.

OUTSTANDING CAST OF A MOTION PICTURE 
(please read our annual report on the lame rules in this category and which actors those rules punished this year)

• Belfast
• CODA
• Don't Look Up
• House of Gucci
• King Richard

SHOULD WIN / WILL WIN : All of these casts are good and Belfast has a long "one time frontrunner" lead that could boost it to the final win. House of Gucci was also embraced by SAG but we think they'll sour on it (outside of Gaga) due to Oscar's cold shoulder. This is possibly a limb to fall off of it but given the tight race, we think they might not be able to resist having the CODA team up on stage both for sentimental reasons and for love of the film. It's been the little contender that could all year long, and made good on its crowd-pleaser status in a way that Belfast and King Richard weren't able to given their low box office returns. Someday the industry will have to figure out a way to process the unfair "perception" advantage streaming titles have... they're never tarred with the "flop" brush in the way theatrical releases instantly are if they're not a franchise spectacle.

TELEVISION

It's so difficult to know -- take these with huge grains of salt. No, whole blocks of it.

Actor in a Drama Series

• ·       Brian Cox, Succession
• ·       Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
• ·       Kieran Culkin, Succession
• ·       Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game
• ·       Jeremy Strong, Succession

WILL WIN: With a 60% Succession lineup it's tempting to think that they'll split votes leaving either Crudup or Lee Jung-Jae to collect the win. But we think actors will rally for Jeremy Strong given all the press (no such things as bad press, eh). 

Actress in a Drama Series

• ·       Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
• ·       Jung Ho-yeon, Squid Game
• ·       Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
• ·       Sarah Snook, Succession
• ·       Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show

WILL WIN: We're going to guess Sarah Snook given Succession mania and the small matter (kidding) that she's just great on the show.

Ensemble in a Drama Series

• ·       The Handmaid’s Tale
• ·       The Morning Show
• ·       Squid Game
• ·       Succession
• ·       Yellowstone

WILL WIN: Succession

Actor in a Comedy Series

• ·       Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
• ·       Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso
• ·       Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
• ·       Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
• ·       Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso

WILL WIN: tough call! Ted Lasso and Only Murders could split the vote leaving Michael Douglas to collect a defacto lifetime achievement. Or Jason Sudeikis could just continue his winning streak. That said is the enthusiasm really there? We want to predict that Only Murders in the Building (which has a very enthusiastic fanbase) but who? Let's say Martin Short since he has the more overtly comic role. 

Actress in a Comedy Series

• ·       Elle Fanning, The Great
• ·       Sandra Oh, The Chair
• ·       Jean Smart, Hacks
• ·       Juno Temple, Ted Lasso
• ·       Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso

WILL WIN: Jean Smart, take another trophy.

Ensemble in a Comedy Series

• ·       The Great
• ·       Hacks
• ·       The Kominsky Method
• ·       Only Murders in the Building
• ·       Ted Lasso

WILL WIN: Let's say that Ted Lasso still has enough juice for a win here... especially since it didn't win last year since SAG was celebrating Schitt's Creek's finale. (Though it's tempting to predict Only Murders in the Building) 

Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

• ·       Murray Bartlett, The White Lotus
• ·       Oscar Isaac, Scenes from a Marriage
• ·       Michael Keaton, Dopesick
• ·       Ewan McGregor, Halston
• ·       Evan Peters, Mare of Easttown

WILL WIN: Another tough call. Nothing would thrill us more than Murray Bartlett win but we're going to predict Michael Keaton for Dopesick. 

Actress in a Television Movie or Limited Series

• ·       Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
• ·       Cynthia Erivo, Genius: Aretha
• ·       Margaret Qualley, Maid
• ·       Jean Smart, Mare of Easttown
• ·       Kate Winslet, Mare of Easttown 

WILL WIN: Mare of Easttown was the toast of the Emmys but can Kate Winslet fend off everyone's favourite current funny lady of the moment, Jennifer Coolidge? Let's predict Coolidge for fun and a mild surprise. 

Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series

• ·       Cobra Kai
• ·       The Falcon and the Winter Soldier
• ·       Loki
• ·       Mare of Easttown
• ·       Squid Game

WILL WIN: It would be fun to see Cobra Kai take a big showbiz trophy (especially since it's a returning nominee from last year) but we think they won't be able to resist Squid Game here -- the zeitgeist show of the year.

WHO ARE YOU PREDICTING FOR THESE PRIZES?

Comments

[Frank Zappa]

Should/will:

Garfield/Cumberbatch
Colman/Chastain
Negga/DeBose
Smit-McPhee
Don't Look Up
Matrix/No Time to Die

Crudup/Strong
Moss
Handmaid's Tale/Squid Game
Sudeikis
Fanning/Smart
The Great/Ted Lasso
Keaton
Winslet
TF&WS/Cobra Kai

[Philip H.]

I’m starting to think / hope maybe it could swing Chastain’s way… since Kidman and Colman have won before, Chastain might have a slight edge. Who knows, Id love to see Chastain finally get her Oscar. I’m excited to see how Actress unfolds regardless.

[Mr Ripley79]

Best Actor has always been Smith's to lose but Cumberbatch's film has the heat so he is my alternate.

Kidman has never won for film so they may give it to her,I'd be predicting GaGa is she'd have been nominated for the Oscar so my alternate is Chastain.

Kotsur or McPhee too hard to say.

Dunst wins supporting,she's worked with a lot of people and WSS has lost steam but DeBose could still do it.

[Michael R]

I want Gaga to win tomorrow for two reasons: first, because she deserves it (sorry haters) and secondly for the sheer chaos it will cause in Best Actress. Also, I am predicting DeBose to win but I do not think she is the runaway favorite that most pundits do. Dunst is right on her heels imo.

[Michael R]

And I will say this one last time : these twenty acting nominees are far superior to what the Academy ended up choosing. I am much more excited about tomorrow's ceremony than I am about the Oscars which is unfortunate because I have loved the Oscars since 1983.

[NATHANIEL R]

Michael R -- hmmm. i think it's kind of a tossup. Yes SAG was smart enough to get NEGGA and COOPER in there but they also included LETO and HUDSON so i think it's kind of a wash.

[Michael R]

Nat : yes the Leto nomination is unfortunate and I wouldn't have nominated Hudson but the other eighteen nominations range from very good to inspired. LOVE the Cooper, Gaga, Blanchett, Affleck, and (especially) Negga mentions. Negga gave THE film performance of last year and it's pretty unforgivable that the Academy failed to nominate her. And I loved that SAG omitted the Belfast boys. I liked Belfast just fine but nobody was nomination worthy imo.