Emmy Predictions: Comedy Categories

By Abe Friedtanzer

Anthony Carrigan and Michael Irby in Barry

Whereas the drama series race can only bring back three of last year’s nominees, six of the comedy honorees are eligible again this year (Hacks and Curb Your Enthusiasm are the two that aren’t). It’s also the final season of heavyweights like The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Barry, and Ted Lasso  along with two other past nominees, Atlanta and Dead to Me. There’s a slate of new shows in contention, like The Bear, Wednesday, Shrinking, and Poker Face, and it’s important not to forget the show that’s on the rise and likely to be the one to beat this year: Abbott Elementary.

The true challenge of predicting these races is the number of nominees in each based on the number of submissions on the ballot, especially in comparison to the drama categories. Both supporting races only have seven nominees, not eight. Lead actor and actress have five, not six. And the directing and writing categories each have six, but one of the directing nominees has to be a multi-camera show (which has resulted in surprising nominees like B Positive and especially The Ms. Pat Show, which is eligible again this year). There are going to be many deserving shows and performers snubbed as a result, and it’s almost impossible to choose what will get left off and what will make the cut. But let’s try…

Will Wednesday be #8 or #9 for Best Comedy Series? 

BEST COMEDY SERIES

Abbott Elementary

Barry

The Bear

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Only Murders in the Building

Poker Face

Shrinking

Ted Lasso

Other possibilities: It doesn’t feel right to bet against hot Netflix newcomer Wednesday or to presume that What We Do in the Shadows, a nominee in its second and third seasons, gets dropped when it’s come through before. Atlanta made the cut for its first two seasons but missed last year, while Dead to Me was honored only in season two (both shows are now over). It pains me to remember that The Great has yet to be nominated here and is therefore considered an extreme longshot. Jury Duty is a fun choice that could surprise, while Reservation Dogs continues to build momentum, and I so wish that Party Down, which as of this writing has yet to be renewed for a fourth season following a fantastic comeback more than a decade after it was cancelled, could be considered a realistic possibility here.

Will Nicholas Hoult return for his portrayal of Peter the Great (and Pugachev)? 

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Bill Hader (Barry)

Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)

Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)

Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)

Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)

Other possibilities: This category is one of the tightest of all. If freshman series star Jeremy Allen White joins last year’s lineup, which is a near-certainty, he bumps out both Nicholas Hoult (The Great), nominated just once for season two, and Donald Glover (Atlanta), who won for his show’s first season and hasn’t been left off at any point (season four is the show’s last). Ramy Youssef (Ramy) was nominated for his show’s second season and could be in contention again for its third season. It’s strange to think of Jason Segel (Shrinking) as a longshot given how well-received his show has been. Adam Scott (Party Down) and Bob Odenkirk (Lucky Hank) received nominations in the corresponding drama category last year for other shows, but it’s not likely that either of these projects, good as they are, will attract enough attention. And wouldn’t it be interesting to see Sylvester Stallone (Tulsa King) on this list?

Natasha Lyonne in Poker Face 

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Christina Applegate (Dead to Me)

Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)

Natasha Lyonne (Poker Face)

Jenna Ortega (Wednesday)

Other possibilities: With three of last year’s nominees – Jean Smart, Kaley Cuoco, and Issa Rae – ineligible this year, it pains me to think that Elle Fanning (The Great) may have earned her one and only nomination last year when she should be a serious threat to win every year. I’m expecting Applegate to be honored for her show’s swan song, and it’s also possible that Linda Cardellini (Dead to Me), who was nominated for season two, will be also. This would mark the second straight snub for Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building), which doesn’t feel right, but I don’t know which of the five women I’ve predicted she can bump. It’s also possible that Bridgett Everett (Somebody Somewhere) breaks through with a nomination for a very underrated show, which would be a lovely surprise.

Harrison Ford in Shrinking 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Anthony Carrigan (Barry)

Phil Dunster (Ted Lasso)

Harrison Ford (Shrinking)

Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)

Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear)

Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary)

Henry Winkler (Barry)

Other possibilities: All eight of last year’s nominees are eligible for this year’s seven-wide field, so this list leaves off Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live) and Nick Mohammed (Ted Lasso), who have both been nominated for the past two years running, and Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), who has earned bids for all four of his show’s previous seasons. There’s also Toheeb Jimob (Ted Lasso), a nominee last year, and his costars Brendan Hunt (Ted Lasso) and Jeremy Swift (Ted Lasso), who contended for season one, along with a guest acting nominee from last year, James Lance (Ted Lasso), who’s now eligible in this race. Don’t forget Stephen Root (Barry) and Brian Tyree Henry (Atlanta), past nominees who weren’t cited for their shows’ most recent seasons. From the few shows that may ultimately end up being represented in this category, Chris Perfetti (Abbott Elementary) could also score a spot.

Ayo Edebiri in The Bear 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

Ayo Edebiri (The Bear)

Sarah Goldberg (Barry)

Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)

Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)

Juno Temple (Ted Lasso)

Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)

Other possibilities: This category feels like it could be easier to predict than the others. From last year’s slate, three nominees can’t return: Hannah Einbinder, whose show will be back sometime in the future, Kate McKinnon, who’s no longer on her show, and Sarah Niles, who is now eligible as a guest actress. That opens up just two slots, and the simple answers are newcomer Edebiri for The Bear and Goldberg for Barry, who was nominated for season two of her show and then dropped for season three. There’s also past nominees like Zazie Beetz (Atlanta) and Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), who could return for their shows’ final season, and Lisa Ann Walter (Abbott Elementary) who could also join her two costars in this field. I’m not sure how well their show will do, but either Jessica Williams (Shrinking) or Christa Miller (Shrinking) could sneak in.

Hannah Waddingham and Matteo Van Der Grijn in Ted Lasso 

BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Dave Chappelle (Saturday Night Live)

Matteo Van Der Grijn (Ted Lasso)

Luke Kirby (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

Nathan Lane (Only Murders in the Building)

Steve Martin and Martin Short (Saturday Night Live)

Pedro Pascal (Saturday Night Live)

Other possibilities: Two of last year’s nominees are eligible again, winner Lane and Sam Richardson (Ted Lasso). I think Richardson will be bested by Dutch actor Van Der Grijn, and Maximillian Osinski (Ted Lasso) could also show up for portraying star player Zava. Other SNL hosts who could join Pascal and the Only Murders duo include Austin Butler (Saturday Night Live), Brendan Gleeson (Saturday Night Live), Michael B. Jordan (Saturday Night Live), and Miles Teller (Saturday Night Live). Other variety possibilities include Jack Black (History of the World, Part II), Colman Domingo (A Black Lady Sketch Show), Josh Gad (A Black Lady Sketch Show), and Sam Richardson (A Black Lady Sketch Show). Another show that could offer multiple contenders is a Peacock series with new characters every episode, Poker Face which featured Adrien Brody, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Tim Blake Nelson, and Nick Nolte this season. There are a number of other actors on the ballot who could show up, like Fred Armisen (Barry), Fred Armisen (Wednesday), Hank Azaria (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), Jon Bernthal (The Bear), Bobby Cannavale (Bupkis), Guillermo Del Toro (Barry), Leslie Odom Jr. (Abbott Elementary), Oliver Platt (The Bear), and Matt Walsh (Ghosts). Neil Patrick Harris (How I Met Your Father) might get votes for a familiar role, while I’d be delighted to see either Charlie Cox (She-Hulk: Attorney-at-Law) or Benedict Wong (She-Hulk: Attorney-at-Law) surprise.

Nina Arianda and Rachel Brosnahan in The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel 

BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Becky Ann Baker (Ted Lasso)

Jodi Balfour (Ted Lasso)

Taraji P. Henson (Abbott Elementary)

Shirley MacLaine (Only Murders in the Building)

Sarah Niles (Ted Lasso)

Harriet Walter (Ted Lasso)

Other possibilities: Maybe it’s ill-advised to predict one show to net four nominations, but it did happen last year with Hacks, so that could be the case again. Walter was nominated last year, as was Niles (in the supporting category), while Baker (Ted’s mom) and Balfour (Jack) both had memorable roles this season. Ambreen Razia (Ted Lasso) and Ellie Taylor (Ted Lasso) are also on the ballot for portraying Shandy and Sassy, respectively, and I’m sad that Katy Wix, who plays Barbara, isn’t. Henson and MacLaine are both Emmy favorites, but they’ll face internal competition from the likes of Ayo Edebiri (Abbott Elementary), an expected nominee in another race this year, and Jane Lynch (Only Murders in the Building), a nominee last year, along with Tina Fey (Only Murders in the Building), an Emmy regular cited previously in this category for Saturday Night Live and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. Yvette Nicole Brown (A Black Lady Sketch Show) and Issa Rae (A Black Lady Sketch Show) are past nominees who are eligible again, while Pamela Adlon (History of the World, Part II), Jackée Harry (A Black Lady Sketch Show), Tracee Ellis Ross (black-ish), Amy Schumer (Saturday Night Live), and Molly Shannon (Saturday Night Live) have all been nominated before for other projects. Cherry Jones (Poker Face) and Judith Light (Poker Face) are Emmy favorites who might also contend along with their costars Ellen Barkin (Poker Face), Hong Chau (Poker Face), Stephanie Hsu (Poker Face), and Chloë Sevigny (Poker Face). Other variety possibilities include Quinta Brunson (Saturday Night Live), Jenna Ortega (Saturday Night Live), Keke Palmer (Saturday Night Live), and Aubrey Plaza (Saturday Night Live). Finally, I’d be delighted to see Nina Arianda (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) make the cut.

Hilary Duff and John Corbett in How I Met Your Father 

BEST DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES

Wow (Barry)

Review (The Bear)

Daddy (How I Met Your Father)

I Know Who Did It (Only Murders in the Building)

So Long, Farewell (Ted Lasso)

Wednesday's Child is Full of Woe (Wednesday)

BEST WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES

Educator of the Year (Abbott Elementary)

Wow (Barry)

System (The Bear)

Dead Man's Hand (Poker Face)

Coin Flip (Shrinking)

Go Flip Yourself (What We Do in the Shadows)

Out of all the categories listed, these two were the toughest to predict. I had at least eight or nine selected for each before I realized I was way over the allotment. There’s also that multi-cam requirement for directing, and I’m making a HIMYF guess even though it could also be an episode of Lopez vs Lopez, Night Court, or The Ms. Pat Show again. It’s worth noting that Only Murders scored double directing nominations last year, a feat which Atlanta, Barry, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, and Ted Lasso (triple) have also pulled off. Atlanta, Barry, and What We Do in the Shadows did the same with writing (WWDIS got three one year). It feels weird not to predict Poker Face for directing, omit the series finale of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel from both categories, and completely disregard past nominees like Ramy and The Great. Expect plenty of surprises and chaos from both these races.

What do you think of these wildly crowded fields?

Comments

[Philip H.]

I even had issues calling Barry a comedy in season 3, but season 4 especially... Where was the humor?

I understand dark comedy is all the rage these days -- and I do love it, although I'm becoming tired and missing vibrant, purely silly comedy -- but to call this show a comedy at this point is a major stretch.

Not to mention this last season was a dumpster fire of a m e s s . Talk about jumping the shark. This was before the writer's strike, right? I'm just trying to make sense of it all.

Season three was lacking comedy -- I forgot how funny the early seasons were! -- but it was still well done. I thought Sarah Goldberg had the Emmy locked up but she didn't even get nominated.

Truthfully, I'll be upset to see Barry nominated for anything for season four, but I know it'll happen.

--

• Also, when will Dave be recognized? No hyperbole, one of the best shows I've ever watched, with major stars featured and it generates next to no buzz. Quite baffling.

• Selena Gomez better get her nomination this time around!

--

I need something new to watch, so I think I'm gonna check out The Bear next.

[thevoid99]

While I won't be surprised for Ted Lasso getting some nominations as I do hope Phil Dunster, Juno Temple, and Nick Mohammed deserves some accolades. I'm also hoping for Wednesday to get some nominations including ones for Jenna Ortega and Emma Myers.

Yes, Selena Gomez should get her Emmy nomination and I would like to see Hilary Duff be nominated.

[DAVID S]

Natasha Lyonne is SO SO SO SO SO SO good in POKER FACE!

That raspy voice! Those Columbo mannerisms! She should be the clear frontrunner.

Also, Judith Light was Best in Show for the guest stars of that show this year.

[Ryan T.]

I don't know why the guest categories isn't just a full sweep of actors from POKER FACE but that's just me.

[charlea]

I think Ayo Edebiri is clearly the female lead of The Bear…which is also a drama. What the hell?

[jules]

Justice for Selena Gomez!

I couldn't get through all of Shrinking, but Jessica Williams was the highlight of the episodes I did watch. If anyone from that show is nominated, she should be.

I hope you are right about Poker Face and Natasha Lyonne. Such a refreshing show and performance, but I am worried that it doesn't have the media attention of some of these other shows.

[Pam]

There's no good comedy without drama and vice versa, but it's very difficult to place some of these shows in the Comedy category. Barry, The Bear, Poker Face.

I love Abbott Elementary, but not sure it needs any more awards when there's Reservation Dogs, Am I Being Unreasonable (BBC production, so probs not Emmy eligible), The Great (CRIMINALLY unrewarded!), The Outlaws, Extraordinary, The Afterparty (so clever and creative, with a great cast), Mo (also criminally underseen), Dave, or League of Their Own, all of these fresh, funny, and very entertaining.

Same with Mrs. Maisel. It was a nice fitting end to the series, but not sure it needs more awards.

[Peter Bately]

Emmy predictions for the comedy categories are highly anticipated, producing excitement and discussion among lovers and industry professionals.
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