What Are Each Actor's Chances at Oscars Post-SAG Nominations?

By: Christopher James

After a surprise omission at the SAG Awards, what are Michelle Williams' chances at scoring an Oscar nomination for The Fabelmans?Now that the SAG Awards nominations have been announced, we have a slightly clearer picture of the acting races as we get closer to Oscar nomination morning. I use the word “slightly” because there’s always room for surprises. In fact, last year saw four acting nominees earn Oscar nominations without any precursor citations from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards.

At this stage of the awards race, we have two questions to ask. Which actor with nominations from all three groups will be snubbed by Oscar? Which actor can sneak in without these precursors?

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Team Experience Predictions Chart - Round 4 - Post Holidays, Pre Awards Shows

We're polling the Team Film Experience on where the Oscar race stands. This week Best Picture, Director, and the Acting and Writing categories.

It has been over a month since we’ve checked in on the directing, acting and writing categories. Since then, Avatar has soared at the box office, Babylon has flopped and both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards have announced their nominations. Some categories look completely different than they did at the end of November. Others, funny enough, remain the same. One category has a contender who is unanimously on the top of everyone’s predictions… and it’s not the one you think. 

Check out our predictions after the jump…

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Chaotic SAG Predictions. You ready?

by Nathaniel R

BABYLON

Beyond the Golden Globes, the most unpredictable of the major awards historically, in terms of nominations, has been the Screen Actors Guild. Their nominations will be announced on January 11th which is just a few days away. The nominating committee rotates each year so it's never the same group of people doing the judging. Sometimes they'll spring for a performance no one (at all) saw coming ("Naomi Watts in St Vincent" / "Sarah Silverman in I Smile Back") and sometimes they'll stump for a major star and give us false hopes that their delicious work won't be too outré for Oscar voters (hello, "Nicole Kidman in The Paperboy"). Sometimes they seem a month or two behind the general Oscar buzz or contrarian and other times they fall right in line like they've been studying prediction charts from pundits. In short, which kind of year will it be for them?

You won't want to hear this but our crystal ball keeps saying "Babylon" despite its harsh reviews and tepid box office. Is this thing broken? Anyway, ON TO THE PREDICTIONS...

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"All Quiet on the Western Front" dominates the BAFTA longlists

by Cláudio Alves

"All Quiet on the Western Front" | © Netflix

After the Academy announced its shortlists in ten categories, some questions loomed over prognosticators' heads. Does a better-than-expected performance at this phase of the race indicate broad industry support? Moreover, is All Quiet in the Western Front – featured in 5 of AMPAS' rosters – the non-English-language film to beat and Netflix's best bet at a Best Picture nod? What were once mere suspicions feel like near certainties in the face of the BAFTA longlists. While we should always take these things with a grain of salt, it's hard to ignore how well the war movie did. Out of 15 possible categories, it features in all 15 shortlists, including such surprising places as Best Costume Design.

Come discover the full longlists, after the jump…

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Oscar Volley: The heat is with the "Original" screenplays

Team Experience is discussing each Oscar category in the lead up to the nominations. Here's Nathaniel and Abe to talk Best Original Screenplay...

AFTERSUN

NATHANIEL: I feel like I say "my favourite category!" a lot when talking Oscar. So let me just tell you, Abe, that this is at least 'one of em' for me (with the Actress categories, Costumes, International Feature, and and and and and) Usually, the Oscar buzz centers on the Adapted screenplays since they come bearing automatic prestige. This year it is so pleasing that the heat is with the originals. The Banshees of Inisherin & Everything Everywhere All At Once feel neck-and-neck for the future win. Even if they both didn't have so much heat in Best Picture, they'd be formidable contenders in this category.

I want to start with the longer shots, though. One movie a lot of people are rooting for is Charlotte Wells' Aftersun. I love it too but I wonder if it's ineffable impact doesn't spring more from the fluid mystery of the direction, editing, and performances? I wonder if it can go the distance here. What longer shot are you rooting for?

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