Team Experience Oscar Predictions: Final Scores

by Cláudio Alves

Let us be glad. Let us be grateful. Let us rejoicify... that the awards season is over.

The Oscars have come and gone, and it's time to settle some scores. Nothing too dramatic, of course, just the matter of who, in the Team Experience, was best at predicting the 97th Academy Awards winners. Eric Blume took the honors for the nomination period, but the tables have turned. The king has fallen, and a new queen has risen – all hail, Lynn Lee! She correctly predicted 18 out of 23 categories, accounting for a roughly 78% success rate. On the other hand, I did the worst of the lot, with only ten correct predictions, or a 43% success rate. It's pretty dire, but that's what you get when you go "no guts, no glory" on some of these…

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And the winner is... ANORA

We'll talk about this year's Oscar ceremony over the next couple of days but tonight, sleep! You can see the complete list of winners on the Oscar Chart Index. Sean Baker's sex worker comedy Anora was the atypical Oscar favourite, winning five Oscars (four of them for Sean Baker himself who wrote, directed, edited, and produced) and losing only only one of its categories: Best Supporting Actor.

The only shock amongst the acting awards was Anora herself, Mikey Madison, who took Best Actress over the long-time frontrunner Demi Moore (The Substance) and the rising Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here).

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Oscar Volleys: Three still standing for Best Picture. Who wins tonight?

The penultimate Oscar Volley. This morning, Abe Friedtanzer, Eric Blume, and Nathaniel R discuss the category at the top of the Academy mountain.

NATHANIEL: "BEST PICTURE!" He shouts with horror, as Team Experience reaches the final day of Oscar season with this category not yet volleyed. By now readers have had a chance to see all of our Predictions, and my own multiverse grappling with what might play out tonight  along with most of my own alternate ballot. Best Picture may well be the last award presented on regular Oscar nights, but it's far from the least. In fact, one could argue you should always BEGIN with Best Picture in your discussions since all awards are affected by it. "Trickle down" is a scam in economic turns, but it's very real at the Oscars where voters have historically voted for their favourite in as many 'lesser' categories as they can justify, often with ridiculous results in terms of the nominations and statuettes in  craft categories. Because we have reached the end of the season, apologies to the filmmakers behind Dune Part Two, Nickel Boys, I'm Still Here, Wicked, A Complete Substance, and even nomination leader Emilia Perez... but I think we can safely say that none of these films have a prayer in hell of taking the top prize.

Consensus, history, and momentum (in various quantities) suggests that only the epic drama The Brutalist, papal thriller Conclave, and raw and reckless indie Anora could win Hollywood's highest prize. BUT preferential balloting always throws a fascinating wrench into the popularity contest that is the Oscar race. Not only do you have to have a lot of votes in the end, but you also have to be ranked highly on ballots you don't win if the race is close. And won't it be? So what say you gentlemen? Who has the advantage and do pundits put too much stock into the "ranking" of preferential ballots.

ABE: Nathaniel, I think you meant A Complete Unknown, not A Complete Substance, but I think that speaks to how that those films aren't going to be major players. I think that, prior to Karla's tweets coming up, Emilia Perez could have competed, and both Wicked and The Substance could have been in play too had they done better on nominations day. But it's down to the three you mentioned...

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Team Experience: Final Oscar Predictions!

by Cláudio Alves

ANORA | © NEON Rated

The Oscars are almost upon us, but the posting continues here at The Film Experience, with some volleys still waiting in the wings and maybe something more. For now, it's time to present the Team Experience's final predictions in all Oscar categories, from Best Picture to those pesky unpredictable Short Film races. At the end of this crazy awards season, most of our writers lean toward Anora taking the top prize, while Best Director is more evenly split between Corbet and Baker. The acting categories may look locked up, but some surprises could happen, and the "below the line" honors are a headache and a half as far as punditry's concerned. All in all, only seven categories inspired unanimous predictions…

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Oscar Volleys: As usual, Best Live-Action and Documentary Short Film are hard to predict

The Oscar Volleys continue, even as the Academy Awards ceremony draws ever closer. Tonight, Cláudio Alves and Ben Miller discuss the Best Live-Action and Documentary Short races...

ANUJA | © Netflix

CLÁUDIO: Well, we're starting to run out of Oscar categories to discuss at The Film Experience. But we couldn't go into the season's pinnacle without giving some attention to the two least-loved races - Best Live-Action and Best Documentary Short Film. And look, I get it. AMPAS rarely showcases good short-form cinema, having a bizarre predilection for miserabilism and stupid twists, moral lectures, and very little audiovisual invention. Where is Godard, or John Smith, or Leos Carax, or Steve McQueen, or Laura Citarella, or Takashi Miike? Nevertheless, AMPAS' favorite miniature pictures deserve to be considered, and there's even a highlight or two to celebrate. Do you agree?

BEN: Every year, these categories give me something that really knocks my socks off. Even if you have something like Animated Short, those are usually very digestible or play in front of a wildly popular Pixar film.  That's not the case with these.  You really have to go out of your way to see these shorts, but they are so very worth it...

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