First Oscar Predictions of the Year - Complete!

Whew. That took longer than expected but you can now see all of the "April Foolish" first-round predictions for this Oscar year, albeit compiled in May & June and delivered to you in early July. Since the first wave of 20 categories takes so long to compile (updates are easier) we should note up front that James Vanderbilt's Nuremberg, another film centered on the Nuremberg Trials, was scheduled for a November 2025 release after the weeks of research for these charts so it is not yet included.  That said we can hardly claim it a certainty as a competitor. World War II is no longer automatic "Bait" for voters, Vanderbilt is not (yet) an Oscar player and though the cast has four previously nominated actors none are the sort that Oscar voters ALWAYS watch regardless. Anyway, we'll save it for the next up date.

What follows are a dozen key questions were asking ourselves in July about the upcoming competition before things really heat up during the fall film festivals. We've love to hear your thoughts on these 12 questions...

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Oscar Predix: Which actresses will receive their first Oscar nomination this coming season?

by Nathaniel R

Rose Byrne, Ayo Edebiri, and Renata Reinsve

We're almost done with the first round predictions for the Oscar charts. Today, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress and the question most prominent on our minds is which women will have "Oscar Nominee" after their names forever more? It's hard to tell this far out but we have some inkling of the possibilities...

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Oscar Predix: Which actors will have big years?

by Nathaniel R

Jonathan Bailey in WICKED FOR GOOD

This post's titular prompt question is not quite the same as "Who will be Oscar nominated this coming winter?" but having a big year in your career never hurts in gaining awards traction... or at least momentum for a future year. Will Jonathan Bailey's suddenly A-list career (with two potential giant blockbusters in a span of five months) convince Oscar voters that his SAG nomination last year should be mirrored with an Oscar nod for Best Supporting Actor? Will Sinners cultural dominance this spring help Michael B Jordan and Delroy Lindo land their first overdue Oscar nods early next year or will the zeitgiest move on?

These are just a couple of the questions I've been asking myself about the upcoming Oscar races for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor but there's more after the jump...

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Eye Candy Predix Pt 2: Will "Wicked" be crowned again in Costume Design?

by Nathaniel R

WICKED FOR GOOD

I cheered when Paul Tazewell won Best Costume Design and Nathan Crowley won Production Design for Wicked and yet I also felt a sense of dread. One of my great popculture fears in this franchise era is that the Oscars will one day lose their identity and become something akin to the Emmys with the same achievements winning again and again. Naturally then I'm excited to see new variations on the pinks and greens and golds and blacks of Wicked's color palette in Wicked For Good but also don't want to see it win back to back Oscars in the eye-candy categories, since it's essentially one long film, split into two. (It's the same reason I rolled my eyes that the Academy felt the need to nominate Stuart Craig and Stepheni McMillan for a full half of the Harry Potter franchise films even though their work was strong).

So what might oppose total Wicked dominance in the eye-candy categories come Oscar time?  Specifically costume design...

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Eye Candy Predix Pt 1: Who will be nominated for Best Cinematography?

by Nathaniel R

F1 The Movie - shot by Claudio Miranda

Eye-candy. It's a good chunk of the reason we obsess over cinema, a gloriously visual artform. Films which don't maximize the capabilities of cinematography, costumes, and production design often risk looking dull or under-thought by comparison to those that use everything the cinematic toolbox has to offer. It should go without saying that Oscar predictions do not necessarily mean that these are the titles which will excel in any given craft area -- we all know that Best Picture heat gets you further than it ought to  in every category... yes, even the ones you deserve to be competitive in! All categories should be judged on their own exquisite merit. Neverthless here is some guesswork about what Oscar voters might respond to this year in terms of these visual arts...

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Last night I caught an IMAX screening of Joseph Kosinski's latest all quadrant hopeful, F1: The Movie. It's received a bit of breathless Variety hype for Chilean DP Claudio Miranda's work...

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