Nathaniel's final predix: What kind of Oscar night will we be having?

by Nathaniel R

The big story from the SAG Awards last weekend was the continuing rise of Conclave and A Complete Unknown in the awards race. The fires in Los Angeles had previously wreaked havoc on people’s lives, many of whom work in the industry we obsess over so the event carried that story forward. More superficially (we recognize that this hardly matters in context!) the fires disrupted the usual flow from December’s mandatory “Best of” list explosion through the call and response of the various precursors and on to Oscar night. This makes it far more difficult than usual to predict what’s coming as there’s not necessarily any cause and effect from one event to the next given the messy timelines of voting. 

How much did the Emilia Perez scandal hurt a film oscar voters clearly loved in January? How many more voters watched I’m Still Here AFTER its surprising success on nomination morning? Do people love The Brutalist or merely admire it? Is Anora really out front as the DGA and PGA suggest? Will Conclave prove the adult contemporary tune that tops the charts amongst a sea of rowdy garage band hits (Anora, The Substance), folksy callbacks (A Complete Unknown) and would-be operatic bangers (The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, Dune Part Two)? I have so many questions...

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Oscar Volleys: Brody vs. Chalamet in Best Actor

The Oscar Volleys are back for some post-nomination talks. Today, Eric Blume and Eurocheese discuss the Best Actor race...

SING SING | © A24

ERIC:  Hi Euro, I'm thrilled for this one-on-one with you to discuss our five Best Actor candidates.  While I'm eager to discuss the actual race, because I think we have a real race here with several possible outcomes...what are your thoughts on the nominees themselves?  How do you feel about the five?  I think one is a little weaker than the rest (and that's Colman Domingo, more to come), but all in all a wonderful quintet full of talented actors doing very fine work.  What is your take?

EUROCHEESE:  That's funny - of the five here, Colman Domingo would actually have my vote…

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Oscar Volley: No matter who takes Best Animated Film, we’re all winners!

The Oscar Volleys are back for some post-nomination talks. Today, Cláudio Alves and Nathaniel Rogers discuss Best Animated Film...

FLOW | © Janus Films / Sideshow

CLÁUDIO: Last year, I got to go to the Annecy Animation Film Festival and was lucky enough to watch Gints Zilbalodis' Flow shortly after its Cannes premiere. I loved it on the spot, besotted by complicated camera choreography and the cuteness of its feline lead, but couldn't imagine what was to come. Looking at my original review, I even mentioned hopes that it'd get international distribution, which, at the time, wasn't guaranteed for the small Latvian production. Goodness, how things have changed. It turns out that Flow was the tiny film that could, storming through the awards season like a meowing underdog. Beyond becoming a cause célèbre for its home country, the film overcame Pixar's blockbuster hit Inside Out 2 to become The Wild Robot's biggest competition for the Best Animated Feature Oscar. 

And the best part is that, whichever of the two wins, we'll have a fantastic champion in our hands, something both of us know shouldn't be taken for granted. Isn't it wonderful?

NATHANIEL: It is bliss, yes. Both films are in my top 20 of the year (top ten list coming very soon)…

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Weekend Awards Wrap-Up: From the Vatican to Vegas

by Cláudio Alves

Mikey Madison crashes into the Best Actress race thanks to BAFTA.

Last weekend marked the rapid ascendance of Anora as the Oscar Best Picture frontrunner. This past week's guilds honors haven't dispelled that notion, though BAFTAs might have, with Conclave taking the top prize from the British Academy. Will the race come down between a doomed Vegas wedding and a Vatican election, or will another contender rise with SAG next Sunday? From social media controversies to precursor disharmony, his season has been uncommonly chaotic and I, for one, am loving this sense of unpredictability. As much as we like to presume otherwise, this isn't a numbers game and stats exist to be broken. So let's break them…

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Oscar Volleys: Best Makeup & Hairstyling is a tale of many Horrors

The Oscar Volleys are back for some post-nomination talks. First up, Cláudio Alves and Eurocheese tackle Best Makeup & Hairstyling...

EMILIA PÉREZ | © Netflix

CLÁUDIO ALVES: Neurofibromatosis melting off someone's face, rapid aging into chimeric flesh, immortal rot, green women, and brownface - this year's Best Makeup & Hairstyling race has it all. Looking at the state of the race, we seem to have a runaway winner but one can never be sure of these things. Especially when that likely winner belongs to the Academy's most hated genre - horror. Indeed, we have two horror films competing this year, a rarity in itself, plus a dark comedy that sometimes flirts with the cinematic idioms of horror and a movie musical that's a horror to witness. And then there's Wicked, which I can see pull an upset if it overperforms on Oscar night. What do you make of this year's race?

EUROCHEESE: I'm amused that you included Emilia Pérez in the mix as one of our "horrors," and given Karla Sofía Gáscon's title character would be a focal point of the nomination, Netflix can't avoid her here. We're in unprecedented territory when it comes to the ripple effects of the scandal, but even on nomination morning, this nomination felt like a mild surprise.

I'd safely rank it least likely to win…

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