Best Actress - Who will dance with Oscar?

While Best Actress remains the most impressively competitive category, the buzz has been so deafening on Natalie Portman and Emma Stone's work in Jackie and La La Land respectively, that we have our first acting nomination "locks" of the year. Yes, I hate to use the word so early -- i generally prefer not to use it until after a film has opened -- but in this case it applies.

Short of either of these well loved actresses murdering someone casually or becoming a spokesperson for Trump on his campaign trail their traction for Best Actress is a done deal. Having now seen both pictures it's tough to imagine either of them missing; their movies are probable Best Picture Contenders which hang on their every flickering bit of feeling. And they've both got multiple "clips" galore for award show reels, clips that will look like "of course she won the Oscar!" in retrospect should either of them manage the win.

So spots three through five is where the true competition is. Most people feel that Ruth Negga is a given for Loving -- though how a movie fares in release is often a factor and it's not out yet. One worrying factor is that she's significantly less famous than most of her competition. Everyone is banking on Viola Davis being spectacular in Fences but we must remind everyone (and also ourselves despite our raggedy "Team Viola" t-shirts!) that nobody has seen the picture; history has many examples of stage-to-screen transfers that underwhelmed. Beyond those two we have Oscar regulars like Meryl Streep (always a threat even if she doesn't campaign), Amy Adams (always a threat and always campaigns hard), and Annette Bening (unless the movie is waiting too long to make its move). And then there's "critical darling" possiblities like Isabelle Huppert. I've been harping on this for some time, I know, but I remain convinced that she could happen as a nominee. Natalie & Emma being so far out front actually makes passion votes more important because with both of them sucking up so many votes, other women will need to stick out in the hearts of voters to fight their way in. 

It's also fair to wonder what Globe Comedy/Musical nominations could do to boost profiles of particular actresses. Hmmmm...

GLOBE COMEDY / MUSICAL ACTRESS
the possibilities

Lock-ish
Stone - La La Land
Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins
It's easy to imagine them as nominees...
Field -  Hello My Name is Doris
Beckinsale - Love & Friendship
Winslet - the Dressmaker
But the Globes can surprise. What about...
Huppert -Elle
Sarandon - The Meddler
Zellweger - Bridget Jones's Baby 
anyone else? 

New Best Actress Oscar Prediction Chart. What'cha think?

Judy by the Numbers: "You're So Right For Me"

Anne Marie has been chronicling Judy Garland's career chronologically through musical numbers...

The terribly tricky thing about early TV (or really any TV) history is that episodes are often filmed and aired in different orders. Because of the discrepancies in airing schedules, we will be following in the order in which they were shot. After the CBS lawsuit was settled with the agreement that Judy Garland should make a show for CBS, the question became what kind of show to do. It took two years for the usual contract negotiations, delays, and upheavals to settle enough for that question to be decided. On June 24, 1963, Judy Garland recorded the first episode of a variety show titled (unsurprisingly) The Judy Garland Show. 

The Show: The Judy Garland Show Episode #1
The Songwriter: Mel Torme (uncredited)
The Cast: Judy Garland, Mickey Rooney, Jerry Van Dyke

The Story: A musical variety show seemed to be the perfect format for Judy: it was a popular genre that took advantage of its star's talents in not only singing, but also dancing and sketch comedy. Just two problems: 1) by 1964 the variety show was considered "old hat" and 2) CBS decided to air this new/old variety show against Sunday night behomoth Bonanza.

With the pressures of broadcast television, a new creative team (including Mel Torme), and her disintegrating relationship with Sidney Luft, Judy Garland requested that her first guest be someone she could trust: Mickey Rooney. The company line was that she was doing an old pal a favor, though it's clear from watching the clip that he's doing her a favor as well. Judy begins the clip full of nervous energy - she even mouths some of Mickey's lyrics - but eventually two decades of partnership and four decades of friendship put her at ease. By the time they get to the reprise, Judy Garland is genuinely, truly having a good time just being herself. The question was whether Judy Garland herself was something TV audiences would tune in for.

Miscellania: Hugh, Tori, Sarah, and Angela Lansbury

I've been gone for two weeks and festivals are quite a bubble. What did I miss? Besides the impending apocalypse (when I left everyone said Hillary was a done deal and when I returned everyone was acting like Trump has already won).

Here are some happier things I discovered today whilst perusing the web...

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Judy by the Numbers: "I Could Go On Singing"

by Anne Marie

We have reached the end of Juy Garland's film career. From this point forward, this series will be focused exclusively on her television appearances. So, why not play Judy out the way she's remembered best, belting a big number in glorious Technicolor? But the hopeful title and Judy's brassy voice belie a darker truth. This week's number serves not only as the title song of the film, but also as a thesis for Judy Garland's later career.

The Movie: I Could Go On Singing (United Artists, 1964)
The Songwriters: Harold Arlen and E.Y. Harburg
The Players: Judy Garland & Dick Bogarde, directed by Ronald Nearne

The Story:  If A Star Is Born represents Judy Garland's image as a tragic, romantic figure in Hollywood, then I Could Go On Singing may be the closest Garland got to a public confession of how messy the tragic parts of her life coud be. Filmed in England while Judy battled for divorce (and custody of her younger children) with Sidney Luft, the film looked like life mirroring art mirroring life. The story of a concert singer whose relationships disintegrate even as she tries to shield (and connect to) her estranged son incorporated biographical details and observations straight from Judy herself. Co-star Bogarde reported rewriting large scenes with Garland to incorporate her own musings on celebrity, addiction and performance.

Perhaps most telling is the scene that happens directly before Judy performs this number. She's all smiles and charm while placating the audience she kept waiting. She looks restored just stepping onstage. However, just moments before, injured and recovering from a destructive bender, she destroys the idea that performing was a pallative:

"There's an old saying: When you go onstage, you don't feel any pain; and when the lights hit you, you don't feel anything...It's a stinking lie."

Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (S1.E13-14)

Dancin' Dan back at long last with a return to our favorite musical comedy TV show! This time out, we movie-lovers have a lot to get excited about as Rebecca goes to court and receives more than a few surprises in doing so.

S1. E13: "Josh and I Go To Los Angeles!"

Rebecca and Josh's case finally goes to court, only the opposing counsel turns out to be a surprise guest from New York...

Let's rank the crazy!

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