Pressing Oscar Questions / New Predictions
Thursday, September 15, 2011 at 9:15PM If you haven't yet noticed, I updated all the Oscar charts yesterday to reflect the latest shifts in buzz. As ever I am not totally enslaved by immediate buzz but try to project forward from it. I don't believe, and past experience backs me up here, that the first word from festivals is the last word on consensus. Festival audiences have, in many cases, different needs than Academy voters and the general public and even mainstream-leaning film critics. These differing needs range from subject matter to tone to emotional and intellectual content. So there is much we still don't know about the new films winning raves. To win Oscar's heart you generally have to first master or at least make peace with three other audiences (all of which can or do overlap with each other and with Oscar but let's not complicate the matter): Critics (i.e. reviews/perceptions of quality), public (box office), media (are they interested? are their editorial angles or movie stars to keep them engaged). Festivals are the gun going off but never the finish line. So here are some questions I'm pondering.
Won't you join me in answering them?
Michael Fassbender OR Ryan Gosling? I've already pitted them against each other publically/mentally as "The Future of the Movies: Male Division" (do they have any competition?) and perhaps it's a natural evolution from that question but aren't they in direct conflict for an Oscar nod this year? Both have had amazing years with multiple films, some artistically minded, some for commerce but all of which they've been excellent in. Ryan has the more Oscar-friendly fare (Ides of March/Drive) compared to Fassy's kink (Shame/A Dangerous Method) but Fassy may have the more Oscar-friendly personality in terms of his ease with self-promotion (supposedly Gosling is unburdened by the typical Oscar dream).
I don't think there's room for both given the Best Actor field... do you?
What of Alexander Desplat?
His score for The Tree of Life seems likely to be axed for eligibility given all the other music in the film. His score for Carnage is supposedly only heard for a few minutes. His scores for the new Harry Potter and Twilight are both within long running franchises which generally don't show up in the score category since such scores tend to mix old and new themes and there's a been there/done that feeling even if the score is entirely new. Will they stiff their new favorite composer or will it be enough for them to have their all time favorite back? 79 year old John Williams has two Spielberg scores this year (Tin Tin and War Horse) after a long absence and if there was ever a time they wanted to hand him a sixth Oscar, it's probably now.
Captain America or Thor?
I've been asking this question all summer and I suspect very few people care. But hear me out: Isn't one of them going to win multiple Oscar nods? The technical fields are often hugely competitive but they're also friendlier to genre fare than the big eight. Captain America:The First Avenger has the distinct advantage in that it takes place during World War II and thus gets to show off period piece beauty in costuming (for Jeffrey Kurland and Anna B Sheppard who have both been nominated previously but never won) and art direction (Rick Heinrichs has 3 noms / 1 win to his name) ... but Thor has a more Oscary team in costume designer Alexandra Byrne (4 nods, 1 win) and production designer Bo Welch (4 nominations) and whether or not you think that the ice planet or the mythical realm of Asgard are way too bombastically gaudy in design... Oscar loves overkill in just about any category. See last year's results for Eyesore in Wonderland and every time any pundit ever joked about "Best" being code word for "Most".
Aren't "Restrained" and "Chill" Four Letter Words?
One review called Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy "marvelously chill" and the word "restrained" gets tossed around a lot for both that film and Glenn Close's Oscar bid Albert Nobbs. It's not without precedent that Oscar would embrace the chilly or the restrained but it's also not exactly the wormiest hook for AMPAS to swim towards as history indicates. What does all this mean for Gary Oldman (who our Venice correspondent claimed only raises his voice once in his film) or for Glenn Close both of whom will be waging campaigns based half on these new performances and half on their reputations as important thespians who've endured inexplicable golden snubbings.
Category Placement. To Fraud or Not To Fraud?
This question will never die and is ever a concern since modern cinema doesn't have the same clear divisions of labor as classic Hollywood in terms of "star vs. character actor". What's more many pundits, fans and agents now regularly and actively promote fraud to insure better golden opportunities for their beloved star or meal ticket. The feeling of demotion is largely a thing of the past, an Oscar being an Oscar. The unfortunate and long lasting side effect of this trend (more a tradition than trend now actually) are that real supporting players and character actors have less and less opportunities as genuine stars now rob them of their already scant opportunities for the spotlight on a very regular basis. It's almost impossible to imagine that we'll ever see another Thelma Ritter for example (sniffle). So we'll just have to wait and see how Viola Davis (The Help), Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method), the entire Carnage cast and any of the young male leads (War Horse, Hugo, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) play it this year since all of them could theoretically opt for either lead or supporting categorization.
What the hell with the Best Animated Film category this year?
The (relative) failure of Cars 2 has left a gaping Pixar sized hole in the category that was arguably specifically designed just to honor Pixar. Rango, an early visually stunning hit, seems to have no real competition whatsoever. It's hard to see any of its competition as nominees, isn't it? There are sequels no one seems particularly excited about yet (Happy Feet 2, Puss in Boots, Kung Fu Panda 2), films that were hits that no one seems particularly excited about (Rio). Arthur Christmas is a question mark but is anyone excited about it? What's more the only event movie that's still to come (The Adventures of TinTin: The Secret of the Unicorn) should theoretically be disqualified given past AMPAS decisions declaring motion capture ineligible. Is it time to shutter this category or do they just have to hope that it's exciting again next year and the year after?
The Nomination Is Theirs To Lose. Will They?
Just about every pundit worth his/her salt agrees that The Tree of Life, The Help and Midnight in Paris are the three biggies with Best Picture potential to have already hit theaters. Then there are those stubbornly holding on to hopes for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part Two (I readily admit bias that I don't think it's deserving even as a cumulative honor) or The Rise of the Planet of the Apes though history suggests that it won't happen since sequels are only ever nominated when their predecessors were. Though I adamantly doubt that either has a good shot at the most coveted of all nominations, there is a first time for everything and it's true that modern franchise culture is a relatively new ubiquitous Hollywood reality and thus Oscar history might not be the best indication of how the Academy will view or soon view franchise efforts.
Should all of these films or even just three of them be nominated... well, that doesn't leave much room at all for the Christmas time films that are still withheld from eager eyeballs or the films that are on everyone's lips having just debuted at this festival or that one.
Which leads us to the final question...
Which of the unseen films will tank?
J Edgar, War Horse, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, The Iron Lady, Hugo? That's a lot of unseen fare still that even long lead festival audiences haven't gazed upon. Which do you suspect will deliver and which won't?
Reader Comments (39)
Re: Gosling and Fassy, I think Fassy has a better shot because people just love that performance (Shame) even if the film is not Oscar-friendly. But he's far from a sure thing.
I think you should keep Keira out of the top 5 because:
1) The film is not well-received
2) Not Oscar-friendly, though probably more so than other Cronenberg movies.
3) Mixed reaction to her performance.
I'm also nervous about Close. Not that I know if she deserves a nod (or a win) or not but I kind of feel sorry for her. Jesus, I'm becoming an AMPAS member!! Only with reverse age-related bias.
I LOVE that you included Berenice Bejo. Saw The Artist at TIFF and wondered where the buzz for her was. She could get swept in with the love of the film.
Also glad that you put Elisabeth Olsen in the top 5 as well. Her film and Shame were my favourites from TIFF. Hoping Olsen and Fassy can both crack the Top 5.
Random observation: both Gosling and Fassbender act opposite Carey Mulligan in their current critically-beloved films (Drive and Shame, respectively). I just think it's an interesting coincidence.
One more thing of note:
Aside from Oldman (sorry Gary) but isn't the Best Actor category surprisingly "hunky" - Those leading current conversation are DiCaprio, Clooney, Pitt, DuJardin, Fassbender and Gosling. If telecast producers had their way, they'd love a Best Actor slate that pitted Clooney, DiCaprio and Pitt at least.
Just for the record, I think Gary Oldman is hunky. But then again, I'm kind of an old man myself.
Michael Fassbender OR Ryan Gosling? I've already pitted them against each other Probably *Fassbender, as Gosling has already had a nomination and perhaps the Oscrs would like to reward a "breakout of the year" star nomination. In a wonderful world, both would be able to get a nod easily.
What of Alexander Desplat?
*I hope the "Harry Potter" score gets nominated, perhaps along w/a couple of more nods for the finale?
Captain America or Thor?
*Haven't seen either of the two.
Aren't "Restrained" and "Chill" Four Letter Words?
*I hope both Oldman and Close get nominated, that is, if I like their performances when I see them.
Category Placement. To Fraud or Not To Fraud?
*Yeah, fraud sucks. As for another Thelma Ritter, isn't Amy Adams going along this route? Hopefully she'll be able to land a Lead nomination sometime. That, or have HER Leading performance deemed Supporting and win there, lol.
What the hell with the Best Animated Film category this year?
*I loved "Rio" (music, story, characters, animation). I liked "Rango" as well, but I'd vote "Rio" over it. Not too excited about the other 'sequels' this year. There's also "Gnomeo & Juliet" which was cute charming.
The Nomination Is Theirs To Lose. Will They?
*I've only seen "Midnight In Paris" and I wouldn't mind it being nominated. I'd love "Harry Potter 7.2" to get a nod, but that is probably hopeful wishing.
Which of the unseen films will tank?
*I have a feeling the following will tank: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, The Iron Lady. EL&IC has that 9/11 theme and while those do get some awards attention (yay Tommy Lee Jones in "In The Valley of Elah"), they don't do so well box-office wise, no matter the "stars" (Reese Witherspoon, Jake Gyllenhaal). TGWTDT has high expectations, and while sometimes films deliver on that promise, I'm not so sure with this one. The books were loved, but the 3 foreign adaptations didn't really connect (similar to "Let the Right One In"). TIL, don't feel the buzz for it all.
Supporting Actress is begging for a coattails nominee this year. I could not for the life of me figure out a fifth nominee-- I wouldn't be surprised to see Berenice Bejo as you mentioned, Carey Mulligan for Shame, or Jessica Chastain for the Help nominated because of love for their film (and solid performances, too).
I'm betting against War Horse. My theater friends say that the magic of the play is in the puppetry, not the story, and of course that won't translate to film. Add in overhype and I wouldn't count on it.
I'm thinking it's a good year for foreign language animated films to be pushed big in America. With such an uninspiring field, I could see even one of the stranger anime films from Japan gaining momentum if its well made and original. I do think the Academy needs to reconsider their policies on motion capture and rotoscoping. Even if a film is initially performed by live actors, there are animators who then have to take that data and turn it into a fully realized animated film.
One thing to note with Original Score: that's not traditionally a "best" equals "most" category. Gustavo Santaolalla won both of his Original Score Oscars for only composing a few minutes of original music that got parsed out and repeated throughout the films. James Newton Howard only composed one or two really engaging themes for The Village but still got nominated for mostly atmospheric work. If the work is short and memorable, it's enough to be nominated.
And re: Unseen movies so far, Hugo will not be a player judging by the trailer. The Iron Lady could be anything, The War Horse could be great or bland, and Extremely American and Incredibly Baity will possibly be both well-reviewed and get the 10th anniversary Oscar (only-for-this-year-and-film-category). And, hell, maybe it will also be actually good.
michael fassnender could play a child molestor and people would be jealous instead of feeling bad for the children . thats how seduced he his audience is. he is marion cotillard acting, so give her the oscar for being a smoldering man, glenn take hints. Become french(meaning desirable as hell).
I don't know about Extremely Loud... AMPAS hasn't been going for Tom Hanks movies in quite some time. As for The Iron Lady, its director makes me think the movie will tank. In that case, of course, only Streep will survive and snag nomination #17 (but not the win).
After seeing those small clips of Albert Nobbs, I'd be lying if I said I was impressed by Glenn Close's performance. Janet McTeer, on the other hand, blew me away in the one minute of screentime I saw of her. If Close wins an Oscar, it will be largely based on her reputation and "overdue" status (and lack of competition if she's lucky). Otherwise, no chance.
Robert G, but it is a "Best" equals "Only" category, which is what Nathaniel was saying. The best moments of The Tree of Life rely on works by Smetana and Cassidy, not on Desplat's score. And for that, just like Black Swan/True Grit last year, it will likely be disqualified from consideration.
Gosling> Fassbender.
If AMPAS members are mostly straight white males, they may not want to go down Fassbender's full frontal which seems to be reportedly as impressive as his performance. And if they catch up late with what's the latest sensation (Eddie Murphy!), this is the year of the Gosling after Blue Valentine and next year will be Fassbender's.
Actress: I don't see the Mara thing happening even though we've been told so all year long. If the original couldn't make it, a remake of a genre movie which is just the beginning of a new franchise? Yes, Salander is a plum role but Rapace already nailed it. I see, or maybe I want to see, Dunst nomination more likely. It maybe the only way to reward the movie, there's the hot babe thing and also some sort of comeback. And there's also the inherited role that was meant for someone else factor which usually brings good luck (maybe not the prize itself...) to the recipient . It's a good story for talk shows or acceptance speeches anyway.
And no, no to category fraud, but I think it's a lost battle. Fraud is everywhere and nobody seems to care unless directly affected.
I think Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close will be Daldry's first non-nomination, his Charlie Wilson's War."
" I didn't know Hanks was a producer in Mamma Mia! Thanks IMDB
Why are you leaving out X-men First Class? That one has period trappings AND better reviews than either Thor or Captain America, two moderately entertaining comic-book movies that, to me anyway, come across as too simplistic or too cartoonish for Oscar.
Every season there's a biggie that was underestimated all year because pundits pegged it as a "commercial play." The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will be it this year. Word is Fincher's turned it into an epic crime picture in the vein of classic 70's filmmaking.
Fassbender vs. Gosling:
UGH, it's like a Sophie's Choice. iggy had a good point; but right now, Fassbender is the hot demanding man in Hollywood right now. Fox Searchlight is excellent selling their films to AMPAS, especially indies. And sometimes (Maybe few, but still) the buzz could be too big to ignored, and that's happens with Fassbender and Shame. Sorry Gosling, but Fassbender may be nominated.
I think Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close will be Daldry's first non-nomination, his Charlie Wilson's War." - I agree.
Iggy, sorry, but if Magnolia make this move, Dunst could be disqualificated: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/melancholia_goes_vod_on_october_7th_one_more_before_it_hits_theaters_on_nov/#.
Finally, no Knightley this year, maybe next year with "Anna Karenina". James T is right, also Knightley isn't exactly a loved actress as Kate Winslet. Yes, she made it in 2005 (But only Zhang was the only real alternative that year) and didn't make it in 2007 (Even with a BP nominee)
My Predix:
Actor:
-George Clooney
-Leonardo DiCaprio
-Jean Dujardin
-Michael Fassbender
-Gary Oldman
Alt: Ryan Gosling and Brad Pitt
Surprise:Michael Shannon
Yes, with the possible exception of Michael Shannon, this is a "hunky year". Also Pitt, Gosling, Gordon-Levitt and Hardy
Actress:
-Glenn Close
-Viola Davis
-Rooney Mara
-Elizabeth Olsen
-Michelle Williams
Alt: Vera Farmiga and Tilda Swinton
Surprise: Michelle Yeoh
Supporting Actor:
-Kenneth Branagh
-Albert Brooks
-Tom Hardy
-Nick Nolte
-Christopher Plummer
Alt: Benedict Cumbebacht and Armie Hammer
Surprise: Brad Pitt
Supporting Actress:
-Berenice Bejo
-Carey Mulligan
-Vanessa Redgrave
-Octavia Spencer
-Shailene Woodley
Alt: Marion Cotillard and Janet McTeer
Surprise: Keira Knightley
Oh, GODDAMN IT LEON! I WAS ABOUT TO MAKE A SOPHIE'S CHOICE REFERENCE ABOUT GOS/FASSY.
WELL, SHIT. DAY'S RUINED.
...but, seriously, the bitch had an easier job than I do with this dilemma.
It can't be done.
Kill them both.
Or kill me in their place. Sacrifice in the name of great art and great asses.
I think Keira will gets nominated wherever she’s placed at.
I think Gosling is out unless Ides of March is really well received.
I hope Carey Mulligan gets nominated in Supporting for “Shame”
Gary Oldman is not really that singled out.
No matter how bad the film is, Glenn Close is in. I mean it’s a woman disguised as a man!
Desplat is scoring for Ides of March, so who knows?
I don’t think J, Edgar and Daldry’s new film will sunk since the writers for both are Oscar-quality people.
Brad Pitt's stock has risen a lot over the past few weeks with Moneyball and so has Glenn Close's. Brad seems like a sure thing, unless DiCaprio picks up steam.
In Best Actress: I predict it will be more about Glenn and Viola rather than Glenn and Meryl. Also, I think Keira will end up in supporting? That seems to be where other pundits are putting her.
Elizabeth Olsen may slip in as the Jennifer Lawrence of 2011, if she doesn't get beaten out by Rooney Mara who is also picking up steam after this new Dragon Tattoo footage was leaked to critics at Toronto.
Not sure why you're not including YOUNG ADULT in the Best Picture hopefuls conversation.
I'm hoping that Gosling and Fassy both make it, although it seems unlikely. If I had to pick one, I'd pick Fassbender, since he seems to have the buzz and acclaim after Shame (The Ides of March and its lukewarm response may hinder a nomination from Gosling). However, many (including me) think that Gosling was robbed last year of a nomination for Blue Valentine, so maybe with the universal acclaim and potential box-office success of Drive, he could get in.
As far as what movies will tank, I could easily see Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close tanking, considering that the book is so esoteric...it seems like it would be a nightmare to adapt into a cohesive film. And judging the mixed responses to Clint Eastwood's last few films, J. Edgar may not live up to the hype it has set for itself....and, just my opinion, I think that The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo may be the surprise of the holiday season. I'm starting to get excited about it.
As far as Oldman and Close, I think both could get in but neither one will win.
As for fraud, Viola Davis will probably be campaigned in Lead Actress to allow supporting nominations for Octavia Spencer and maybe Bryce Dallas Howard and Jessica Chastain. I think Keira could go any way, although she will face a tough challenge in either category considering that her performance has polarized critics. She may fare better in supporting. I don't think Carnage will be a big Oscar play, frankly. And I agree with Nat regarding the young actors...if Extremely Loud is good and the kid is well-reviewed, he will be placed in supporting like Hailee Steinfeld, Tatum O'Neal, and countless other child actors (even though they are undoubtedly lead in their respective films).
Now that you bring it up, the Best Animated Feature category is looking depressingly empty/unexciting. In fact, Rango is the only animated film I've seen this year (not counting Tangled, which had a late release date here). Hopefully next time it'll be more filled out.
The more I listen to Desplat's score for HP, the more I love it. I'm hoping to see him nominated again this year at least.
Evan, I wrote for quite a bit here on this site maybe three weeks ago on why Tree of Life wouldn't be nominated. I specifically said why it would be disqualified despite Desplat's lovely original music. It's not even that it's not used enough in the film. One outside song has been enough to disqualify films in the past.
I did not, however, discount Ides of March in the original post. Carnage was added in after I wrote it because IMDB hadn't confirmed Desplat as the composer, so no analysis there. Now that we know Carnage only uses the score for a little bit, it comes down to the quality and memorability. If it's a fantastic theme and the precursors fall in love with the film, he could be carried through to a nomination on only a few minutes of music. Score nominees do not need a whole lot of scoring to be recognized. That was my point. Someone like Desplat, who has a knack for creating beautiful melodies that stick with you, could probably get nominated for doing less.
But maybe we can have both Fassbinder and Gosling? I'd like that. Just take out DiCaprio, who no-one has seen yet, and who perhaps people are a little less excited by. The whole J. Edgar movie doen't appeal to me yet.
What about Andrea Risenborough? Her reviews have been great and some mentioned that she´d be in many best actress lists.
Ah, Robert G. I wasn't disagreeing with you then-- was just unclear on the point of your first comment.
Not sure if it's been mentioned yet, but if Glenn Close gets nominated for Albert Nobbs and loses, then she'll join the "biggest Oscar losers (of acting)" club - currently inhabited only by Deborah Kerr and Thelma Ritter - since it'd be her sixth losing nomination.
Would voters allow Close to have such a fate?
Apologies for the misinformation earlier: she'd tie the record for losing actresses... forgot about Peter O'Toole
No mention of Steve McQueen, even as a long shot?
If any branch was to get behind Shame surely it'd be the Directors.
~ If Gosling and Fassbender really are in competition, I'm going to go with Fassbender. Gosling's already been nominated, Fassbender hasn't, and it seems like the latter has been getting more 'buzz' this year.
~ I don't think 'restrained' will mean anything for Oldman. I'd be surprised if Academy members don't dutifully vote for him this year whether they've even seen the movie or not. As for Close, I don't know, but playing a man is a rather baity hook, is it not, regardless of the actual tenor of the performance?
Also, do you think that Simon Beaufoy could be a longshot for adapted screenplay for Salmon Fishing in the Yemen?
par -- that was a mistake/ brain skip. I have added him to the top 15. thanks for the reminder.
@ leon
I'm not sure I get what VOD is, TV? If it is, I don't get why a distributor buys a movie to show it on tv and then in theatres. Really, I don't get it. Even if it wasn't meant to top the box office (see Midnight in Paris, who would've known. But it can happen), now its potential audience will be even smaller, die-hard fans who want to enjoy the movie theatre experience.
Anyway, they include this at the end of their article:
For Oscar watchers, take note. The VOD bow won’t affect any potential campaign for Dunst as the film already had its Oscar qualifying theatrical run very quietly in July in Los Angeles (you snooze, you lose).
iggy -- i think the concept of VOD is simply that the market for art films has shrunk so much that anyone who really loves film in any market under the top eight or so... sometimes never gets the film. So it's a way, theoretically, to allow more people who might like it to like it. But it's still weird for such a cinematic movie. I mean, Melancholia really begs for the big screen.
But in this way, it'll shrink even more or it will eventually disappear. The idea would be great if it were AFTER a big screen run and it could reach areas where a limited release can't. Soon, you'll be seeing foreign movies only in festivals where they'll be bought to be remade.
Wild guesses on the Yet Unseen:
Warhorse: admired, nominated, but not loved.
Incredibly Loud: well-liked, nominated, but not loved.
J. Edgar: empty at the center, grudgingly lukewarm response.
Hugo: lukewarm critical response, seen as a kid's movie, but makes a surprising amount of money (it's a kid's movie!)
Dragon Tattoo: well-reviewed, makes money, seen as a commercial success not awards bait.
Iron Lady: gets the same kind of reviews as Madonna's W.E. for many of the same reasons.
What was I thinking? Already so wrong! Warhorse will have a frenzy of love for the horse.
I remember reading an interview with Quentin Tarantino where he showed one of his favorite movies to a NYT interviewer. It was a tragedy where the (horse? dog?) was the lead. Tarantino said those movies with animals as the lead characters were the ones that moved him the most deeply.
Given the positive response for the dogs in Beginners and The Artist, a horse tragedy will have the whole audience sobbing. As I think Nathaniel said in his early forecast.
iggy, the VOD is the premiere of the film in TV. The worst part around this is the release a month before of the release in theaters. Think about Linda Fiorentino in "Last Seduction", she was disqualified because a week before of the release in theater, the film has a premiere in HBO a week before. Sorry iggy, but this rule is special in AMPAS. Liv Ullman in "Scenes of a Marriage" (Even this year's Oscar winner Ellen Burstyn was upset of that decision) or the dutch "Bluebird" is another perfect examples of that
Magnolia has a contract with Sundance Channel around the release of films. The VOD is cheaper and give more money for the distributor, but kills the Oscar's chances.
Sorry, are another perfect examples, and I made another mistake. "Scenes of a marriage" was released as a mini-serie in Sweden. This is a quote from imdb:
The film was ruled ineligible for Oscar consideration because the longer mini-series version of it had already been telecast in Sweden.
I think Olivia Colman could do much better than you're currently expecting. Her final scene practically says "Hello! I deserve the Oscar." Hmmm.
As for VOD, "Melancholia" had a qualification run a month or so back (I believe InContention reported it) so even if it goes VOD in a way that would normally disqualify it, it's actually had a 7-day run in cinemas in LA so there won't be any trouble.
Gawd, I'd love "Drive" to get something.