Updated Oscar Predix: Saving Blue Jasmine Station
Saturday, July 20, 2013 at 9:45PM 
It was time to check back in with our popular charts, clean off the dust and rearrange the furniture. But, that said, the Oscar year has been off to a slow start since the blockbusters have had little in the way of Oscar contending elements (beyond visual effects) and the best films so far have been tiny (Frances Ha, Before Midnight, Mud) and Oscar is a size queen.
PICTURE & DIRECTOR
Before you say anything, no, I do not think Fruitvale Station will win Best Picture. I've placed it at #1 on the charts this week merely because it's the only film I'm certain will be nominated at this point. When you start getting grabby media headlines like "Can a movie heal the nation?" people are already making your case for you. And, as rankings go, one should always remember that the charts are about nominations (until the actual nominations take place 178 days from now) rather than wins. I'm not one of those pundits that cares about who will win before we even have a nominee list; the nomination competition is the best part! I'd love to believe that Before Midnight had also already sealed up a nomination but I've never been convinced that AMPAS is really watching that intimate talky ephemeral once-a-decade brilliance. If they were they're crazy for not nominating the second film for Best Picture & Best Actress in 2004 (Million Dollar Baby's got nothing on Before Sunset in either category).
In other chart-shifting I've boosted Saving Mr Banks way way up (I know people were down on the trailer but Oscar predictions are about Academy taste rather than internet taste) and lost a bit of faith in Foxcatcher, though only really because its release plan is either nonexistent or very shy. [more]
ACTRESS & SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The big news in these categories is about to be Blue Jasmine since it opens on Friday and Cate Blanchett is reportedly amazing and BIG in it... when Cate goes big she gets unfortunate Oscar nominations (The Golden Age of OverActing) or divisive wins (Aviator) the poing being that Oscar notices. I had to miss the screening this week because I'd already committed to a little indie called Short Term 12 which was playing at the same time. I was super sad about this as you can imagine since it's a new Woody Allen with my lovely Sally Hawkins in it...
...but then I actually sat through Short Term 12 which was so great I regretted nothing (more on that soon). So I've added Brie Larson, the star of the movie, to the chart as well albeit in a very low position since no matter how terrific she is in each role or movie she makes, she doesn't appear in 'Oscar films' (yet) and even Emmy ignores her -- don't you think she deserved a nomination for United States of Tara?
ACTOR & SUPPORTING ACTOR
In supporting actor I still feel rather clueless since we haven't seen any viable contenders yet -- unless they push Matthew McConaughey for Mud and that'd still be a stretch -- but the possibilities (unseen) seem just north of endless. In the lead category we have chart climbs for both Michael B Jordan (who'd be the 10th youngest guy ever nominated for Best Actor if it happens) and that Wolf of Wall Street Leonardo DiCaprio who hasn't been nominated in ten years (SHUSH, I'M BLOCKING OUT 'BLOOD DIAMOND' ON PURPOSE) so he'll be doing a happy dance if it comes to pass...
ORIGINAL & ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Gains for The Wolf of Wall Street, Blue Jasmine, Saving Mr Banks...
ANIMATED FEATURES
Sheesh what is this category going to do this year? There's just nothing worth nominating yet. Monsters University will be there by default but it's so mediocre. It's time to revisit the number of nominees if we're getting default players. And considering how many contenders have already been screened in 2013 (The Croods, Turbo, Despicable Me 2, Epic, Escape From Planet Earth) that is a bad sign. Especially after the minor excitement the category brought us last year with four very good (if perhaps ungreat) nominees and little clear idea of who might take home the gold.
VISUAL CATEGORIES & AURAL CATEGORIES
Some movement in costuming -- go Patricia Norris. She's in her 80s and still waiting for that Oscar win. She has two films this year: 12 Years a Slave and The Immigrant and a little in visual fx to reflect box office. Pacific Rim's poor showing won't help it here. Amusingly, Costume Design and Visual FX are like exact opposites when it comes to caring about whether or not the movies they recognize are hits or not.)
As for FOREIGN FILM... I'm working on that impossibly wide category this week so we'll discuss the submission charts soon.
Reader Comments (68)
It's going to be a long season. I will see Blue Jasmine very soon and I will let u all know what I think of Vlanchett's perf. FTR since I have been all over the map with her performances from Brilliant to Misjudged I think it will be a valid opinion ;)
I think in October, I'm going to duck out of all film blogs and come back in April.
People shouldn't take it to heart when someone isn't excited/positive about a certain actor. As someone who loves Kristen Stewart, Blake Lively and Jennifer Aniston in certain roles - how do you think I feel?!
Anyways, I think the Best Actress nominees will be Dench, Streep, Roberts, Bullock and Thompson. I also really hope that Michael B. Jordan gets nominated for Best Actor. Loved him for ages.
Melissa -- don't leave meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee ;)
Nathanie: thanks for partly answering my question. Of course everyone is entitled to his / her opinion. That´s not the issue here. From an artistic point of view, i find Nates choice of focus on (for me) less interesting aspects of the acting world, weird. It would be like ignoring Tilda Swinton for almost everything she does based upon feelings and bias. No matter what you feel about her, she stands out in a very interesting way because of her work, points of view and so on.
Swinton and Blanchett have very strong personalities with an artistic agenda and also could not be more different. Whereas Cate LOVES the theatre, Tilda is 0% enthusiastic about it. But their approach to projects are similar. And also how good they are to answer headless questions from the media in an elegantly and intellectual way. It´s class act numero uno. They both have projects that challenges their abilities. Also Kidman does this in some degree. Streep however.....
When it comes to Blue Jasmine, it looks like Blanchett has learn a thing or two from Liv Ullmann ( when Ullmann directed her in A Streetcar Named Desire). Nathaniel, it would be incredible interesting, since you are actressexual, to interview Blanchett and ask her what she learned from Ullmann in the acting department. Ullmann is and will always be THE actress when it comes to layers of layers in face-acting and the Queen of Depth. Just a thought
Continue your good work, Nathaniel!. And of course there will always be questions about your lack of covering this and that within the film and media world. Its part of being a blogger nowadays
somehow I completely missed the discussion in the comments. oh god, another year with heated best actress conversation... NOOOOO!!!!!
(at least I believe no year will top davis x streep)
I swear right here and now that I'm not going to hate on other people's preferences.
I know very well I've been exceptionally kind and I have almost never, probably NEVER said a thing about the Michelle Pfeiffer manure slide. Nicole Kidman, who I ADORE, has become almost boring to follow because he posts way way way too much about her. He's been semi-negligent to Streep.
But whenever he decides to post something about Cate Blanchett ( a rare occasion ) he almost all the time makes sure to put injections of discontent /behind the back stabbing / knife under the table into it.
But as I said before, as a person who reads this blog, I reserve the right to point out to Nathaniel that he's being a bitch toward Cate Blanchett. If he continues to do it, I will continue to point it out.
Oh god, this year's Best Actress race is basically going to be the Quarter Quell isn't it?
People need to chill out about Cate Blanchett. Dang. Nathaniel has his succinct and fair judgments about her acting and filmography. He's not taking cheap shots at external factors like Sasha Stone sometimes does with various actors on awardsdaily. I would say Blanchett is solid for a nomination, but lest we forget this is a JULY release and Oscar is not often reliable in remembering summer releases for award consideration (remember "locked" Angelina Jolie in A Mighty Heart?...however, I will admit this is Woody Allen and he at least always tickles Oscar's fancy when he produces GOOD movies)...we have not even scratched the surface of this season yet...we still have the Thompsons and the Kidmans and the Denches and the Streeps (who has a MONSTER of a part) waiting to pounce and gain "frontrunner" status.
Considering that Cate is about to have a career renaissance in the next few years with multiple Oscar baity projects and big-budget commercial films (Cinderella, The Hobbit movies), I have a feeling we will be talking about her ALL. THE. TIME. (like circa 2004-2008)...
Aaron -- which is fine (talking about her) and thanks for making the point of not even scratching the surface of the season. Re: Cate: Taking a few years off from movies was totally smart of her, exercize different acting muscles, prevent overexposure, etcetera
Alice -- LOL
Yavor -- but see? why u gotta diss Pfeiffer to make your point? The funny thing is I actually resist posting about Nicole & Pfeiffer sometimes. I'M SAVING YOU FROM EVEN MORE ;)
Manuel -- it would be interesting to hear her talk in depth about Liv Ullman, yes.
Quarter Quell is a good way to describe it LOL
ah, The Film Experience readers are so opinionated, it's a good thing!
I ain't dissing Michelle, but I'm sure you know what I mean.
@Mark: I meant that I wasn't trying to rub it in that I made it to my screening of Blue Jasmine and Nathaniel didn't make it to his.
Sorry Nat it's I don't think I can take this season.lol ;-)
well, yes, probably 2013 will be the cruelest, why?
the truly big names are in the mix: Streep, Blanchett, Kidman, Dench, Winslet, Thompson, Watts, Cotillard, etc.
by the way!
"The Book Thief" with Emily Watson + Geoffrey Rush has been moved earlier for a late 2013 release, I'm curious to see how that will go. People say the book is fantastic.
Think this will be down to Dench vs Streep.... Blanchett in Blue Jasmine looks good but may lacking.... Not showy enough this year but they welcome her back to the ball
It's a miracle that this year seems to be the year of mature actresses. Although I don't think the line up in the end will only consist of +44 years old actresses, I've not seen any other year where the chance was that high it could actually end this way. Wow!
And there's still the possebility that Amy Adams and Julia Roberts could go lead too. It's INSANE.
This race has just begun, so everybody fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumby ride.
I agree with the post that in the end BA will be a veteran shoot out
of Dench vs. Streep. Just a hunch - both are so brilliant on screen
and a joy to watch.
The consensus on The World's End out of Britain: Just as good as the previous two, possibly better, and it almost sounds like the best "acted" of the trilogy. All it needs now is a massive gross ($400 m+) and it's on the way to Black Swanning it's way through the season to anywhere between 5-10 nominations. (Original Screenplay, Actor (Simon Pegg), Editing, Director and Picture would be secure, honouring a director with a personal vision of the world making it big with nominations at minimum. STRONG shots at cat fraud Supporting Actor (Nick Frost) and VFX. 50/50 shots at Production Design (redressed pubs to fit tone), Supporting Actress (Rosamund Pike) and Cinematography.)