Best Acting. New Oscar Predictions
Thursday, September 1, 2016 at 6:12PM Having just taken a trip back to 1984 for the Smackdown and memory sufficiently jogged about how dense the acting branch can sometimes be (the discernment skills vary so much annually it can feel like invasion of the AMPAS body snatchers in some calender years) I'm finding myself in the odd position of defending my more extreme hunches from my more cynical side.
Huppert is amazing... and (more importantly) Huppert-esque in ELLEBEST ACTRESS
Whenever you make a call here suggesting that so & so in some non-Oscary film actually has a shot at an acting nomination, people are prone to scoff. But each year's Oscar races have so many intangibles in the acting categories that it's best to keep an open mind. The four acting categories are arguably the categories that are least beholden to the actual movies since a famous actor doesn't need a strong picture to generate buzz nor do they (in some cases) even need for people to actually like their movie they're in or, in fact, see it. And then you have the vaguely opposite case where a particular movie, whether or not people actually warm to it as a whole, can remind the world how fabulous a particular actor or actress always has been...
This is all a long way of saying that I firmly believe that Sonia Braga (for Aquarius if people see the film) or Isabelle Huppert (for Elle, whether or not they like the film if a career tribute storm gathers) are distinct possibilities. They've both moved up a couple notches on the chart.
On the other hand both of those theoretical nominations would take a lot of campaigning work and Oscar might have more than enough favorites from their default actresses. The heat this week is with Emma Stone who has vaulted to the top (but can she stay there?) since La La Land has been so well received in its premiere, they like lead actresses in musicals, and she's the right age (Oscar loves crowning starlets just before they hit their 30s rather than waiting to see how solid their filmography becomes or how much staying power they have (It's the opposite with the men, not that you needed reminding - Editor)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This category continues to defy any attempt at pinning it down. Simply put, it's too early and not enough of the films have been seen. The only calls I feel confident about at this point are Naomie Harris in Moonlight (I know someone who's seen the movie and they were absolutely floored by her) and Kristen Stewart in Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk because it's the right moment in her career --with two years of people noticing how much they underestimated her due to her YA franchise -- and she's in a key role in a film that they will most definitely be interested in.
Beyond Stewart & Harris, though, who the hell knows? How well the movies themselves fare could make a lot of difference as it often does in supporting categories. I initially thought Rachel Weisz was a slam dunk as a grieving mother (Oscar Bait Alert!) in The Light Between Oceans but having seen the movie, it's exactly the performance you'd expect... zero surprises. Perhaps Weisz needs a comedy to shake her up? Vikander & Fassbender's romantic chemistry with tragic undertow is the heart and soul of this movie, not Weisz's catalyst grief however skilled she is with teary despair. She still could win attention because it's exactly the type of role that is taken seriously but now I'm doubtful. Disclaimer: I am fully aware that it's unwise to let personal feelings determine Oscar predictions but it comes down to this: the performance didn't excite me and I'm actually a fan of the movie so theoretically I'm the right audience to be excited for it.
How many acting nominations can BILLY LYNN'S LONG HALFTIME WALK get... or will it be viewed as a technical achievement mostly?
BEST ACTOR & BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Those charts have been updated, too! The male half of the acting categories looks even foggier in the crystal ball. Will any of the supporting players from Fences rise up? For fun this update I'm trying out a very rare "two supporting actors nominated from same film" scenario - for some reason that only been happening in the female supporting category for the last 25 years. What's Mark Strong's role like in Miss Sloane? What to do with all these young actors buzzing or winning great reviews when Oscar has historically ignored men under 30? So many questions... no answers only speculation.
OSCAR CHARTS - ALL CATEGORIES UPDATED
INDEX | PIC | DIRECTOR | ACTRESS | ACTOR
SUPPORTING ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR
FOREIGN | FOREIGN A-F | FOREIGN F-N | FOREIGN N-Z
SCREENPLAYS | VISUALS | AURALS | ANIMATION & DOCS
Reader Comments (48)
I'm pretty sure it was officially announced a few weeks ago that the The Zookeeper's Wife is March 2017. And Pfeiffer's film is being submitted to Sundance.
I'm living at the La La Land reviews. I can't wait to see it. Get that second nom, Emma!
Question on Screenplays: is Tony Kushner actually associated with FENCES? I know this was the news back in January, but imdb has it listed as August Wilson and August Wilson only
(Sorry, just saw the related Oscar Screenplay article, and this comment should've been there. But answers still, please.)
Emma Stone, I'm ready to fall in love with you in La La Land. You haven't done much for me in the past, and I'm still a little sore over that debacle of a Nomination Morning announcement. Stupid, I know, but there it is.
But, Emma, I swear, if you steal an Oscar from Viola AND Annette, well... You don't want me to finish that sentence.
Anyway, see you in La La Land. Looking forward to it!
"Perhaps Weisz needs a comedy to shake her up?"
Do you not consider THE LOBSTER to be a comedy?
Will McDonald's have Michael Keaton as a play toy tie-in?
That does NOT look like Lizzy Caplan in that photo. Actor transformation is Oscar Bait!
Keep an eye on Garrett Hedlund in Billy Lynn. Having read the book, his character is arguably the most engaging - I was always paying attention when he was around in the book, and Garrett Hedlund is actually the perfect choice for him. Hedlund has always reminded me of a young Brad Pitt, and this role is actually very close to Pitt's role in Fury. Stewart gets some of the most emotional supporting work and a very likeable character, while Martin gets gravitas and narrative importance, as a vaguely antagonistic character.
Arkaan -- i do but not the sort of comedy she needs. She needs a move away from tragic crying.
forever 1267 -- isn't that crazy how different a curly wig makes you look. I've seen a lot of photos of her now with that look and it's so 'different person!;
No Rooney for Una in your Actress line-up? Or is that 2017?
Streep is still tier one in my world.... Blasphemy!
Never mind. I think I have found the answer to my question:
https://twitter.com/AwardsCircuit/status/763462174215966720
After seeing La La Land, I think if they have Stone high on their ballot, they'd at least have Gosling right there with her. It's a two hander, and this film may be strong across the board, unlike Blue Valentine. But I think being in a BP helps even as they don't often go for men in musicals. They did throw Jackman a bone a few years ago though, and I think Gosling is more well liked than Gere, and he's a previous nominee. Hoping this is not wishful thinking :P
And Amy Adams is very good in Arrival indeed, and it's her film 100%. Though I question if Arrival is really accessible to the Academy voters, being notably more challenging than the sci-fi films they've nominated before. It's not straight forward, but both the film and Adams are very good.
@ Mike in Canada
La La Land smells of Silver Linings Playbook-ness already
- young, hot, likable actress
- a bit older, hot, likable actor
- material is rather light
- wonderful early reviews
Coulda sworn Tony Kushner has said that he functioned more as a dramaturg than as a screenwriter on Fences. But can't find it on the internet right now.
Why Kristen Stewart is not mentioned for Cafe Society? From what I have understood her role in Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk is brief (though this does not prevent nomination, especially in Supporting Actress)
I think she is bright at Cafe Society, the best performance I've seen her and with all the characteristics of a winner.
Do not understand why she will not mention (is the release date?)
I'll pick Isabelle Huppert over Annette Bening and Viola Davis anytime.
I'm not feeling Jessica Chastain for top tier. Her character looks like a shampoo ad. I also don't get the rush to put Viola in the top tier when no one has seen Fences. I also would not count Streep out. She got great reviews and her film has actually been reviewed and opened. It may be too tempting for AMPAAS to give her nomination number 20, especially since she seems to be working less.
Emily Blunt has built up a TON of goodwill and career momentum. Especially after her near miss last year, I kind of feel like she is in this year even if she is only in the top 8-ish performances.
Chastain does NOT have that momentum at all and has been faltering quite a bit.
My predictions currently
1. Emma Stone in "La La Land"
2. Ruth Negga in "Loving"
3. Viola Davis in "Fences"
4. Isabelle Huppert in "Elle"
5. Annette Bening in "20th Century Women"
I think Stone is in, considering her it girl status, right age, and the movie getting raves. Negga's film I believe will do well and she will, as frustrating as it is to say, benefit from the #oscarssowhite debacle. Davis is the frontrunner to win at the moment due to narrative, and I think it will be easy for her to secure a nomination regardless. A win rides on the success of the film and the size of role etc. I think Huppert goes the Rampling/Riva route, and I suspect she will get many no.1 votes. If many of the lead actress line-ups of this decade indicate, I don't think people will be as afraid of this part as we may think. Have placed Bening in lead, however, unsure of where they will push her. I suspect the film will be very well received and she will also have exposure from Beatty's film.
I do, however, want to include Adams, but I am waiting to see how things play out. Her reviews for Arrival were great but her nomination depends on whether the film goes The Martian or Interstellar route. She also has Nocturnal Animals, but we need to hear how it is received first. I think Focus could also push her supporting for Nocturnal, considering they have Negga in lead. Category fraud likely would strike again, but I could see her pushing the overdue narrative for a supporting win.
I love Lizzie Caplan. I want Janice to get an Oscar nom.
What is the narrative that Viola is overdue? Because of her two nominations? Whatever.
@Amber
My sentiments exactly! Viola's narrative is NOT overdue. I can think of other overdue actresses who deserve the award more than she does. She will get a nomination (and probably a win) based solely on these factors: she's highly likeable in the industry, she's a terrific actress, that OscarSoWhite riff last year, and she's reprising her Tony-winning role on screen. I think the readers here worship her more than AMPAS does.
@ Pete
Related to the #OscarsSoWhite element is the awareness (even if unarticulated for many voters) that Davis may have fewer chances in her career on the whole than an Adams or a Stone to win a competitive acting Oscar. Which translates to a kind of "overdue."
@Paul Outlaw
I hear you. Perhaps it's just semantics...I would call it Preferential Voting; others call it overdue. That basically means voters will seize the opportunity to nominate Viola for an Oscar-worthy performance (The Help and soon, Fences) over other white actresses who may likely get the chance in the future (e.g. Amy Adams). Overdue actresses, in my mind, are the likes of Glenn Close and Annette Bening who have been nominated and have lost time and again over a relatively long stretch of time and are still working these days. Oh well, this year's Best Actress may turn out to be nail-biting if both Viola and Annette go head to head.
...with Huppert. ;-)
Have you people predicting Huppert realized how difficult the movie is?
She is pure genius, but Oscar would never touch a movie like that.
She is not Riva: her part is abrasive, unlikable, sarcastic and although she plays a lot of her unlikability for comedy, this is still a rape comedy. Forget it.
I love Rachel Weisz, but after her towering performance in The Deep Blue Sea she should have tried something different, because you just can't top that movie. I am not sure if she should do comedy. Maybe action, or to try again that free-spirit-early-Kate-Winslet spell she 's mastered so perfectly in The Constant Gardener.
"Vikander & Fassbender's romantic chemistry with tragic undertow is the heart and soul of this movie"
And this is why the movie fails.
Plus there are tons of reviews praising Rachel and the only reason she's not happening its because the movie sucks
The film itself is certainly no great shakes, but Weisz gives a wonderful comic performance in The Brothers Bloom.
Emma Stone and Viola Davis are probably as close to locks as we can expect at this stage. Whatever the quality of Fences, we know Viola will turn in a great performance and the narrative is in her favour. Isabelle Huppert is my wishful thinking pick at the moment. She's having the sort of year that feels unignorable.
She's been ignored when she had The Piano Teacher, a movie I dare to say is less controversial than Elle!
Weisz was delightful with Michael Shannon in a quiet, touching,melancholy movie with comedic scenes, called Complete Unknown (probably released in only a handful of theaters). She has one of those faces onscreen that mesmerizes me. And she's one of those women who actually looks YOUNGER with age.
Weisz was straight-up excellent in The Brothers Bloom, and I wish she'd gotten a nomination (and actually I might've liked her for the win - though I never saw The Wrestler, so I don't know how strong Tomei was in that) for that film. She really can shine in comedies, and parts of The Lobster are a reminder of that.
The stars of The Help in a battle for Best Actress which wouldn't be such a conflict if they had given Viola her Oscar for The Help. Sigh.
Pam - I completely agree about Weitz. There are certain movie stars who just have that quality about them for me. I just get some strange existential reassurance by watching them. They are almost exclusively women for me too, which I guess is the experience of Actressexuality (as I am a gay man). Some have it and it hits me and becomes a life long love affair and others kind of sneak up on you & you think, shit I wasn't expecting that (after Halle Berry did her gumball machine monologue in Monster's Ball I can enjoy anything that bitch is in. I even love Catwoman for all it's awful campy glory). Anyway if best actress comes down to Bening vs Davis vs Adams I might die.
For those thinking Gosling will make it for La La Land, just remember that AMPAS still snubbed McGregor after showering "Moulin Rouge!" with nominations and including Kidman in their Actress shortlist. Gosling may be equally brilliant as McGregor but that really means nothing in terms of Oscar nominations. Even Richard Gere, who had ample precursor love from the Globes and SAG, still couldn't make the final five for "Chicago."
Wasn't Viola supporting in the The Help? Her push then for best actress never made sense to me. She was great in Doubt and should have won then. I wish her luck with Fences but when you start making assumptions about a winner before a film is out then you have stopped critical thinking.
Amber: What helped that push was that the actual lead role in that was Emma Stone's worst performance to date and pushing another performance to lead was an attempt from critics to pretend that someone else was the most important thing about The Help.
I feel like Felicity Jones needs to at least be in Tier 5 for Supporting Actress for A Monster Calls
Cal -- but Elle is more accessible i think because it's quite funny whereas Piano Teacher is just a straight up a horror movie of the soul at times and very hard to watch (even though it's brilliant)
plus She's also got THINGS TO COME this year and i think a third picture plus that stage performances that's winning media attention... so it's a very big year for her.
CineJab -- i'm seeing that soon. hope it's good.
The funny parts in Elle were absolutely unsettling, and I am a man. I want to see how women react.
I feel there are so many strange things that have hurt predictably in supporting actress in recent years. There have been a lot of above average but less than brilliant work recognized in the nominations. And I'm still stunned that Jessica Lange, with a career resurgence and a juicy, intense well-received mother role in The Gambler, couldn't even garner a modicum of buzz. Ain't right.
I don't recall anyone suggesting Lange for The Gambler. It was poorly teceived and I even remember reading reviews that were not impressed with her work on the film.
Stan, I'm not sure where you're getting this that she got bad notices. Peruse Metacritic and you'll find that of 40 reviews, she got one negative write up and quite a few strong ones. The worst thing most said was she was underused. What else is new.
No worries. It is almost impossible, however, to get nominated for a small role in a film that is panned and disliked by both critics and audiences.
I am here for Huppert's Oscar nom. Make it happen ala Ramplung last year.
Kristen might also hopefully get a nom this year.
Rachel Weisz will get in this year. She also has Denial. But I hope the nom is for TLBTO.
I'm hoping to see Huppert nominated and win over Amy Adams, Viola Davis and Annette Bening! It's criminal that she hasn't been nominated, not even once, in her luminous career. Please stop all these Viola Davis-the-front runner talk when no one has seen her movie. There's nothing more annoying than that!
Just a heads up, Amy Adams is on your second tier, judging from the ecstatic reviews of "Arrival" she may move to first tier. Early days yet, but I loved the trailer, love the concept, and it seems she has nailed the performance.
Obviously I can't possibly pick as well as you Nathaniel, you put so much into this.
There's going to be some impossible choices if both Viola & Annette wind up in the final 5.