Final Oscar Predictions in Every Single Category!

by Nathaniel R

If only we had been able to devote more time to each category leading up to the nominations. Next year, my friends. Life, a cruel mistress this winter, had other plans this year. But we'll do better about diving into the nominees. As with most pundits I'm expecting The Shape of Water to be the nomination leader, but I don't think it will be setting any records as some are suggesting. The support for it seems less feverish and more pleasant. At least from my perspective. It can expect a big haul but not every single category. On the opposite side of the Best Picture spectrum is The Big Sick, the only potential nominee that could also be entirely shut out since it's hovering on the edges of its most nominatable categories: Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actress 

So let's break it down by category shall we? We're just listing the basics here but each link will take you to that category's full chart with much more information and the pretty pictures. As always we'll be frantically updating every single chart on nomination morning (January 23rd). So be here frequently this week, pretty please...

FULL INDEX IF YOU'D RATHER LOOK AT A VISUAL CHART

BEST PICTURE

• Dunkirk
• Get Out
• I Tonya
• Lady Bird
• The Post
• Shape of Water
• Three Billboards

and if there's 8-10 nominees

• Call Me By Your Name
• The Big Sick
• Phantom Thread

BEST DIRECTOR

• Guillermo del Toro
• Greta Gerwig
• Jordan Peele
• Martin McDonagh
• Chris Nolan 

This is the exact DGA list which almost never happens. If there's an upset I expect either critical darling Sean Baker (The Florida Project) or famed auteur Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) to kick Gerwig or Nolan out even though in my heart of hearts what I want is for Sean Baker to kick McDonagh out. Please to note: I don't mean this as a knock on McDonagh who everyone is piling on right now and I like to be nice... just that Baker has never been recognized by Oscar voters and he's such a unique voice in the cinema and he's a true DIRECTOR unlike McDonagh who, even at his best, is still primarily a writer.

BEST ACTRESS

• Sally Hawkins
• Frances McDormand
• Margot Robbie
• Saoirse Ronan
• Meryl Streep

Each year it seems like Meryl Streep is not going to happen. As in 'Surely with ___ and ___ right there they're not going for Streep again are they?' Yet something always shifts to give Streep back the edge. It appears that Streep is vulnerable given that The Post isn't truly about its characters but its theme and though she's very good in it, Streep fatigue is real. But, you know, she's tough to beat. Jessica Chastain has been coming on strong for Molly's Game and Annette Bening got a last minute FYC from BAFTA for Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool. Further our In the Fade keeps winning Best Foreign Film prizes suggesting that had they bothered to actually release it in theaters in the calendar year and campaigned it like other movies, Diane Kruger might have had a legitimate shot at Hupperting herself right into the five!  If only one of those women was still being talked about, I'd suppose Streep was in danger but with all three of them there, I don't think we're in for much of a surprise with the Oscar lineup. 

BEST ACTOR 

• Timothee Chalamet
• Daniel Day-Lewis
• James Franco
• Daniel Kaluuya
• Gary Oldman

What a strange journey with the category this year! Tom Hanks (The Post) and Denzel Washington (Roman Israel Esq) were coming on strong with early precursors before all but vanishing from conversations. Jake Gyllenhaal initially came on strong because he was super brilliant in Stronger in which he plays a disabled terrorist victim. But with the Academy slowly turning against more typical Oscar Bait work, that trope didn't seem to keep Gyllenhaal's name in the mix even though he's far far far overdue for some Oscar love. Then Franco came storming in with some comic mimicry that got everyone excited for some reason. Then he was accused of sexual misconduct and people decided he wasn't happening. But that was toward the end of Oscar voting so I'm sure he'll be fine.

Frankly the conversations about Best Actor have been bewildering. I will mourn for Gyllenhaal being snubbed yet again for stellar work.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Mary J Blige
• Hong Chau
• Alison Janney
• Lesley Manville
• Laurie Metcalf

Even more baffling are the supporting categories and for opposite reasons. Supporting Actress is confusing because the race never narrowed down in a typical way leaving about 8 women still standing at the end. By standing we mean that they or their films, were still being talked about a lot at voting time even when precursors zigged and zagged. We're left to guess who might swing enough passion votes with the right combo of recency and greatness. So I've taken two bets that feel risky: Hong Chau and not Octavia Spencer (in a better liked film) prevailing for the fifth slot. Here's an even bigger risk: presuming that Lesley Manville's protective British iciness pushes Holly Hunter's protective Southern warmth out at the last minute in this imaginary nomination battle between a rigid sister and a really upset mother. (I have wanted Manville to have an Oscar nomination for so long but I'll be sad if it comes at Hunter's expense. But you can't have everything!)

These guesses could be totally wrong given that the among of passion that anyone inspires on ballots remains unclear past the twin giants of Metcalf and Janney. In the end will Tiffany Haddish and Octavia Spencer and Holly Hunter show up instead of the three I predicted? Possibly! 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Willem Dafoe
• Richard Jenkins
• Woody Harrelson
• Sam Rockwell
• Michael Stuhlbarg

Supporting Actor is a 180˚ in that virtually only two players were ever fawned over sufficiently to know that they'll be honored when the nominations were read out: Rockwell and Dafoe. Since Jenkins and Harrelson are in frontrunning films and have been showing up in the precursors we can assume they're safe even as we're left wondering if the passion is really there for either? But the fifth spot is a complete mystery. The Globes went with Plummer for All the Money in the World  and Armie Hammer for Call Me By Your Name  (but our gut is that both inclusions were helped on by their starpower a commodity more value at Globes than at Oscars), SAG went with Steve Carell for Battle of the Sexes  (who doesn't feel like a real option given the absence of discusson of the film) and the Critics Choice added Michael Stuhlbarg for Call Me By Your Name  and Patrick Stewart for Logan  as two more options. I'm sticking with my initial guess that the fifth slot goes to Stuhlbarg for Call Me By Your Name  because his performance is less divisive than his co-star Hammer's and because he's been in so many films in the past several years. It feels like it's time for the industry to honor him; if not this season expect it to happen real soon.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

• The Big Sick
• Get Out
• Ladybird
• Phantom Thread
• Three Billboards

A truly tough call. I'm assuming Paul Thomas Anderson's fan in the writing branch will speak up despite the incredible competition which might cause something "locked" like The Shape of Water (which might arguably be called a visual triumph first and foremost). Something has to give and is it insane to think it might be The Post, too? The Big Sick has been fighting for this nomination with a good narrative (husband and wive memoir) for a long long time but it's probably most vulnerable to be overthrown should either of those big films or something scrappy and new like I Tonya rise. TRULY TOUGH CALL

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• Call Me By Your Name
• The Disaster Artist
• Logan
• Molly's Game
• Mudbound

Another confusing one. If Logan, which has revved back up with guild precursors makes it that's the first superhero movie ever honored for writing. I'm tempted to suggest that The Disaster Artist is vulnerable since its so 'copy The Room' in its joke construction BUT none of the other possibilities seem to have any heat. But IF there's a surprise it's one of these four I think: Wonder, Lost City of Z, or Victoria and Abdul.

COSTUME DESIGN

• Beauty and the Beast
• I Tonya
• Phantom Thread
• The Post
• Wonder Woman

Come thru gold caftan, come thru! I think The Post shows up here despite missing at the CDG. The CDG isn't too helpful anyway since they have three categories. It's not uncommon that one thing they ignored gets nominated and I'm guessing that's The Post. The risky choices here are two: I Tonya and Wonder Woman... but I think the costumes being more memorable than the fine but hardly focused-on costumes of Shape of Water, and Darkest Hour. (But I'm still surprised that Victoria and Abdul never gained traction here and could see it as a surprise nominee that shocks prognosticators)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Blade Runner 2049
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• Mudbound
• Shape of Water

Yup, that's the American Society of Cinematoraphers List. Their list doesn't usually transfer 5/5 to Oscar but I think if The Post is at all shaky for Best Picture (which it might be), it misses here. I'd like to think that Call Me By Your Name would place but probably not showy enough despite the gorgeous summer in Italy.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Beauty and the Beast
• Blade Runner 2049
• Dunkirk
• Shape of Water
• The Post

Though I normally adore the work of Sarah Greenwood I'd sooner she wasn't nominated for Beauty and the Beast... but Oscar predictions aren't wish-lists and Most Design is often a big plus. Surprise nominees that wouldn't be all that surprising: Murder on the Orient Express and Darkest Hour. But it's a pity people dislike Downsizing so much because Stefania Cella's production design is rather amazing (and also fall sunder the Most Design umbrella).

FILM EDITING

• Baby Driver
• Dunkirk
• Get Out
• Shape of Water
• Three Billboards

The famous statistic is that it's nearly impossible to win Best Picture without a Best Editing nomination. Every once in a while something not in the Best Picture race competes here if the achievement is showy enough and thus the Baby Driver prediction. From this five I'm least certain about Three Billboards and Get Out. Though it deserves this nomination easily, Get Out might falter here in particular if the Academy is at all iffy on the movie.  And shouldn't Three Billboards 's divisiveness have made it shakier in the craft categories than it appears to have been in the precursors? If either of them miss I'd expect The Post, I Tonya, or Molly's Game (Most Editing) to take their place.

VISUAL EFFECTS

• Blade Runner 2049
• Dunkirk
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
• Star Wars The Last Jedi
• War for the Planet of the Apes

Is it stupid to leave Shape of Water out here? Perhaps it's stupid. But the only one of these predictions that feels vulnerable to me at all is Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 (and AMPAS really liked the first one) and it's got the Most Visual FX factor that Shape of Water decidedly has not. 

MAKEUP AND HAIR 

• Darkest Hour
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
• Wonder

I just have no idea. This category messes me up every year. Perhaps Bright or I Tonya will take the place of Guardians? The only lock feels like Darkest Hour (watch it not be there then on Oscar Nom morning)

ORIGINAL SCORE 

• Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)
• Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
• Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)
• The Post (John Williams)
• Shape of Water (Alexander Desplat)

I'm expecting a return to their favorite composers like Williams, Marianelli, Desplat and Zimmer with the addition of one newcomer Jonny Greenwood for Phantom Thread. That said I do think Phantom Thread is vulnerable because it's not critics voting on these things but the Oscar's notoriously insular music branch. If it fails to connect with them, I'd expect Thomas Newman to get his 15 nominations with Victoria and Abdul or John Williams to double dip by being in the mix yet again for another Star Wars movie

SOUND MIXING

•  Blade Runner 2049
• Dunkirk
• Shape of Water
• Star Wars the Last Jedi
• Wonder Woman

With genre movies now (slightly) more in favor with Oscar it's going to be harder and harder for less fanciful films to break into this category. For instance I think Get Out deserves a nomination here -- that stirring spoon! -- and I've heard many other people loving on the sound design of Phantom Thread and mother! But my guess is most of these are locked up. Wonder Woman might not be there but I am predicting 2 nominations for it because it's been so much a part of the zeitgeist of the year and ignoring it entirely might feel strange!

SOUND EDITING

• Baby Driver
• Blade Runner 2049
• Dunkirk
• Shape of Water
• Star Wars the Last Jedi

I was predicting Baby Driver in this category for so long I don't want to abandon it now. But the other films are safer bets.

ORIGINAL SONG

• Call Me By Your Name "Mystery of Love"
• Coco "Remember Me"
• The Greatest Showman "This is Me"
• Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool "You Shouldn't Look at Me That Way"
• Mudbound "Mighty River" 

But, you know, nothing is ever safe here. They've stiffed many a supposed frontrunner on nomination morning. We shall see. 

FOREIGN FILM

• In the Fade (Germany)
• Foxtrot (Israel)
• The Insult (Lebanon)
• Loveless (Russia)
• The Square (Sweden) 

A truly difficult call. It's easy to imagine any of the 9 finalists in any combination (except for maybe South Africa's The Wound which was obviously the Executive Committee save because it's not typical in any way to Oscar's interests in this category) so I'm ditching Chile's buzzy A Fantastic Woman which is divine but Oscar is weird about LGBT stories; even when they embrace them they don't somehow (see Brokeback Mountain)

ANIMATED FEATURE 

• The Boss Baby
• The Breadwinner
• Coco
• Despicable Me 3
• Loving Vincent 

I think only The Breadwinner and Coco are safe. Despicable Me 3 might fall due to it being a sequel. Loving Vincent might fall because the animation branch can get weird about things like rotoscoping and The Boss Baby might fall because who is going to put it at #1? That said 'what would replace any of them?' is the question given this strangely weak year for this category and the fact that many of the strong contenders are foreign and with this category opening up voting beyond just animators, we could see far less foreign films nominated which is truly said because the category says "Best" not "American CGI Action Comedy" which is the only kind of movies that American animators make.

ANIMATED SHORT

• Cradle
• Dear Basketball
• In a Heartbeat
• Life Smartphone
• Negative Space

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• Abacus
• City of Ghosts
• Icarus
• Jane
• Last Men in Aleppo 

It'd be wonderful to see documentary legends like Agnes Varda (Faces Places) and Frederick Wiseman (Ex-Libris) nominated but Oscar has burned us too many times in this category when it comes to the more "auteurist" of documentary filmmakers.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

• Edith + Eddie
• Heroine
• Kayayo - The Living Shopping Baskets
• Ram Dass Going Home
• Ten Meter Tower

LIVE ACTION SHORT 

• The Eleven O'Clock
• Facing Mecca
• Icebox
• The Silent Child
• Watu Wrote / All of Us

 It'll be interesting to see if Icebox is nominated. The director already signed a deal to make it into a feature film and I'm not sure we've ever had an Oscar nominated short become a live action feature have we? Or am I forgetting something obvious (Whiplash was famously first a short but the short wasn't nominated)

WHAT ARE YOUR PREDICTIONS?
Write yours down and see how you do on Tuesday morning. It's a TOUGH year to predict so you get bragging rights if you do well. 

Comments

[Rob]

CharlieG: I agree, I just saw Phantom Thread and would love if Manville could get a Best Supporting nod. She was just fantastic.

[A.D.]

Agree 100% with Anders. "Get Out" is a wonderfully fun film, but I fail to understand the Oscar buzz. I think it will fails to make the Best Picture lineup. Even great horror films rarely score a Best Pic nomination.

The only other thing I'll say is that I think Nathaniel is underrating "All the Money in the World"....I think Plummer is in, Scott is a maybe and Williams a dark horse (she at least belongs on the chart!)

In my favorite category- Foreign Film- I've first and foremost got my fingers crossed for Lebanon (for their first oscar nom ever!) and Sebastian Lelio of Chile. If they lose a spot to the overrated, overlong, overly pretentious "The Square", the category will once again embarrass itself.

[Leon]

Srly people is taking a bad turn this Tuesday.

[Josh R]

If Lesley Manville gets a nomination, I will feel like I have died and gone to heaven.