All Oscar Charts Updated
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 10:00AM by Nathaniel R
Peggy (Anna Paquin) silently judging "The Irishman" as it moves up the charts
Every Oscar chart has been at least slightly revised with Joker, The Irishman, and The Two Popes on the rise while JoJo Rabbit and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood take a few hits. For now we're only predicting two nominations for Richard Jewell though we do fear that it could grow larger still since critics and the Academy regularly lose their minds when confronted with the uneven acting and flat visuals of Clint Eastwood dramas. We'll never understand this annual glitch in the matrix.
Some risks we're taking at the moment: trying snubs for Frozen 2, Saoirse Ronan, Willem Dafoe, and Tom Hanks on for size to see how those particular charts feel without them as predicted nominees.
Will they or won't they? It feels like Little Women and The Farewell are both on the bubble of a Best Picture nod. It would be fun to predict both but could they really overcome audience hit Ford V Ferrari and Eastwood bait Richard Jewell, simultaneously since both fit more neatly into the kind of stories (aka true and about men... sigh) that Oscar prefers?
UPDATED CHARTS
INDEX | PICTURE | DIRECTOR
ACTRESS | ACTOR | SUPP' ACTRESS | SUPP' ACTOR |
SCREENPLAYS | VISUAL | SOUND |
ANIMATED & DOCUMENTARY | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Reader Comments (53)
Once Woodard reaches first row along with Bates I'll jizz.
TMI you little troll
I can see the Hanks and Dafoe snubs. More so Dafoe. Not sure Erivo is as strong as her placement on the chart (I'd put Johannson and Nyong'o's chances ahead of Erivo's) and Woodard might be underestimated. Woodard received the Gotham and Spirit noms where Erivo didn't. While I would love to see Erivo get a chance to go for the EGOT, I don't think it will happen this year.
Letts is really low down,I think once they start nominating FvF he will be noticed,he's been great for years now,time to reward him.
No one is a lock at this point .. shouldn't we know this by know? :)
I don't get why Erivo is in the top five. Her film has done well at the box office but there doesn't seem to be any passion for the film or even her performance (zero nominations at Gotham and Spirit awards support that).
Similar, The Two Popes also feels like there's no buzz surrounding it. I get that it's won audience prizes at minor film festivals but does that have a long history with a correlation to Oscar nominations? With that being said, if you're predicting Pryce to get in then I don't see how Hopkins wouldn't be in your top five too. They're a package deal.
Since we know Bates is going lead, why hasn't she been taken out of your supporting category?
I think the difference with Hanks this time out, is that the "Whoa, we've really screwed over Hanks since Castaway" narrative feels like it's sticking.
I think the chart might be overselling Alda's chances.In the Aviator he was playing against type and he got to take over the last act as the main antagonist.. In Marriage Story, delightful though he is, his character is just kinda in and out without a big memorable scene to stick in the memory.
Eastwood doesn't get nominated as often as people suggest. Unforgiven and Mystic River were super well-received, led with great actors. Million Dollar Baby (bad title) snuck in, closer to "flat" than previous works, but not and also a very good film. Letters From Iwo Jima is exceptional and a hell of an artistic endeavor. American Sniper not a flat film.
I like The Mule, Eastwood is great, but it is kinda flat. It drags that way. And it does pop up in some of his rushed films, but the attention that surrounds Eastwood films accrue into bait status and his films are stigmatized. His directional work is an artist's work, even when it's flat (sometimes is) and rushed (sometimes feels).
Just saying. Not arguing opinions on his films. But he's not the popular kid sucking up the attention that other types deserve.
@Michael C: Sounds very much like Weaver in 2012 or even Reilly in 2002.
re: Erivo
I think one advantage she has is career heat. Her stage performance in Color Purple is damn near legendary at this point, which can put people past the finish line (see Janet McTeer in 1999). Also I expect her to do well with the Guild/TV awards
re: Richard Jewell
Egads, that poster. It's so so bad. So bad I expect Trump to retweet it lovingly.
Richard Jewell poster is indeed bad, and it's plain. So given the title it makes it worse. Trailer was good tho.
I should just pencil in mid-December mid-December Eastwood every year. Feels it's been that way since Million Dollar Baby.
No locks in supporting categories minus Pacino and Hanks for me. I think both for sure in. Hanks missed was strong in Catch Me If You Can, The Terminal (sorry) and Bridge of Spies, but he was only front and center in one of those and it was near Summer and not loved (with online people often disliking it).
Captain Phillips felt a lock or near and somehow wasn't. Then Sully was expected to land but faded early. Mr Banks was possible but not a front-runner. But they add to his filmography, and towards the realization that he's been passed up. Now he plays a character this memorable, in a supporting category, when Mr. Rodgers is in our consciousnesses (and last year's documentary somehow missed).
With the reviews, I feel a lock.
LMAO @ 3rtful.
Erivo feels, to me, like one who could get Globe and SAG nods and then miss on Oscar nomination morning.
I don't see how (in the Parasite best picture comment) you can call this a weak(ish) year. Compared to last year? I haven't even seen 1917 or Marriage Story, but they have big raves attached, and I think both, plus Once Upon a Time... or The Irishman, would have annihilated Green Book last year. I like Roma, but Parasite is way more audience-friendly, and is getting its Oscar-trajectory not simply from being the critics' choice in a year with few mainstream options, but from its outsized box-office success coupled with great reviews.
You seem to be the extreme outlier on Little Women. The film is pushing 90 on Metacritic and has occasioned more swoony tweets than any movie I can recall; it feels like a Christmas smash waiting to happen. I see no way an already-AMPAS-popular Ronan could miss a nomination for this, especially over Erivo for failed Oscar bait (the only thing that keeps Harriet alive is respectable box-office). I don't rule out N'yongo -- her personal reviews were strong -- but I think the horror movie thing will work against her (and don't say But, Get Out -- Get Out was more thriller/social satire; Us is a lot closer to flat-out horror). I think Zellweger/Johansson/Theron/Ronan feel close to set (sorry to Mark Harris, but that's just how it's worked out), and I'm wondering (based on reports) if Alfre Woodward could be the one to snatch the final slot.
Was it on purpose that you left John Lithgow off the supporting actor list completely? I've heard so much good about him, I've been pondering if he could crash the otherwise all-leading-man line-up, so I was surprised to see him nowhere on your chart.
I would have Jamie Foxx (JUST MERCY) under consideration for Best Supporting Actor too, This category is "too white" and Foxx would not only be a diversity pick (so the AMPAS avoids another #OscarSoWhite), but also a strong nominee according to reviews - it is said to be his best performance since RAY. Plus, Foxx is big enough to land the movie's only Oscar nomination if it misses to get buzz for other categories. Actually, I can see the Golden Globes going for Foxx.
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And I don't buy Erivo... she looks like that contender who gets a Golden Globe nod and a Critics Choice Award nom, but then fails SAG, BAFTA, critics prizes and (finally) Oscar. I think people had high expectations around her performance and the movie iself and HARRIET let them down, which might be a major factor for her awards run.
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Personally: #TeamZhao for Best Supporting Actress lol
I would like to see some female driven films in best picture. Many of us don’t care about the recycled man story of Ford v. Ferrari. /3rtful you are a disgusting disgrace - your narcissism is ruining this site.
Is LITTLE WOMEN really a long shot??
Am I alone in thinking that Knives Out is possibly being overlooked? Yes, it's a genre caper that falls closer to comedy than drama, but it's extremely well made and already a box office success. A SAG ensemble nomination feels extremely gettable, as do Golden Globe nominations for Best Picture, Actor (Daniel Craig), and (my personal new hill to die on) Actress for Ana de Armas. If that ball starts rolling toward Oscar buzz, I could easily see it sneaking into Art Direction, Screenplay and even Editing. I'm going to keep my fingers crossed
"TMI you little troll"
This isn't me. I don't personally attack other posters unless they come after me.
I still don't understand why you are so hesitant to predict Little Women, Nat. Your line-up is so male-dominated.
I wasn't high on Bombshell, but given the very male nature of a lot of these movies, I think it has a better chance than I once did.
Friends who aren't Oscar watchers are really, really into Knives Out. I'm watching Globes reaction to it and adding it to the watch list if it gets moving.
Nathaniel, you have the "Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood" description under "Pain and Glory." Which makes me long for a mashup of the two films, e.g. Mister Rogers helping to heal Antonio Banderas' anomie, or Mister Rogers being the ex-lover who shows up for a warm yet sizzling cameo.
Suzanne/Real Suzanne-
Oh piss off, you’ve been nasty to me before so I don’t expect anything less from the likes of you.
Fiftheen days until the shortlists.😱
Thanks for adding the details in the Foreign category. That was a fun read and gave me a couple films to track down. Someday the site should do a countdown of foreign films Oscar never touched, or get some of the writers to post their personal lists. I love finding unsung classics that blow me away.
I AM here for
Almodóvar
Parasite
Banderas
Alfre Woodard
The farewell cast
The lighthouse
Any female director nominated
Taika Waititi
This magnificient cake!
ScarJo twice!!
I Hope the nine international short listed be: Parasite, Pain & Glory, Monos, Corpus Christi, Les Miserables, Beanpole, Atlantique, The Whistlers, no Brazil
I just watched I Lost My Body. I don't buy it. It needed another year in the oven, both to make a more fluid end result and to actually create an ending instead of...nothing. C+, but ONLY because of the hand scenes, which are all thrilling.
On the short list international:
Out stealing horses
And them que danced
It Just be heaven
Paquin is this year's Marina de Tavira.
@Peggy Sue. I hope you were right.
I just have one question. Why the banner from the top of the director category hasn´t been changed with the last four winners?
I would like to see Catherine Deneuve win for Best Actress in the movie The Truth
I would like to see Glenn Close win Best Actress for The Wife, a performance so astounding it should be nominated again this year.
Is Thomas Newman going to get his fifteenth nomination and finally win an Oscar?
And what are Sam Rockwell's chances of joining the elite group of actors who have received 3 nominations in a row?
We all love to talk about overdue actors/directors/cinematographers/etc, but I want to start a ball rolling for the upcoming awards for a particular Sound Editor who got his first nomination 30 years ago for BORN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY and his eighth (!) a few years ago for DEEPWATER HORIZON. But no wins yet.
The name is Wylie Stateman. And he's in the mix again this year as supervising sound editor for ONCE UPON A TIME IN... HOLLYWOOD, so he's got a real chance. Let's start the campaign here at TFE!
Sam Rockwell, Alan Alda, Joe Pesci...
Nat, I think you've made a mistake and accidentally listed a majority of supporting - as opposed to lead - roles in Supporting Actor, LOL
You're absolutely right, Bruno.
I still long for the day of just 5 nominees for Best Pic...
Jamie: Considering some of the cooler choices we've gotten (A Serious Man, Toy Story 3, Winter's Bone, The Tree of Life, Her, Selma, Mad Max: Fury Road (yeah, don't pretend, we ALL know that would have been a just miss under a strict 5, regrettably), Get Out and Black Panther) as Best Picture under 10 or even 6-10 that would NEVER have happened under 5? Yeah, personally, those are at least enough to justify putting up with the occasional 2016 field.
@Marcos
I can see it. Both Newman and Rockwell.
I was looking to see who were those performers who got three in a row and it's definitely a range of people from "Of course they did" (Al Pacino, Jack Nicholson, Marlon Brando) to "I guess it was a thing that happened" (I'll let you decide who). I thought it would be weird for the nominations to be his first three nominations, but that's actually more common for three-in-a-row Indeed, out of all the actors I found with three nominations in a row, only 1(!) had three nominations in a row after they'd already been nominated once. Pacino and Brando disqualified because they got four in a row.
Thank you, Joan Castleman.
Glenn will win an Oscar next year for Hillbelly Elegy. The book is already a classic. It will be a Ron Howard movie and he also directed the wonderful movie A Beautiful Mind, which won many Oscars. Unfortunately, it will probably be an Oscar in the Supporting category, which would just diminish her legendary career.
Volvagia- and some could argue that some of those films you mentioned were not really Best Picture worthy.... I have sort of forgot about most of them even being nominated for a Best Pic
I don't agree with Bruno who feels winning just a supporting Oscar only diminishes a legendary career.
If Glenn Close does win Supporting Actress next year for Hillbilly Elegy, she will join the ranks of other film legends whose sole Oscar was in a supporting category: Ethel Barrymore, Frank Sinatra, Goldie Hawn, Vanessa Redgrave, Sean Connery, Whoopi Goldberg, Robin Williams, Judi Dench, Morgan Freeman, and George Clooney.
Not bad company at all.
The imposters win. Have my original name. Can't sully it anymore.
I have to say that a lot of the Disney misses feel more like wishlist items. Frozen 2, while not nearly as acclaimed as its predecessor, is still pretty well reviewed and a box office juggernaut (which, while it shouldn’t account for anything, tends to count for a lot in Best Animated Feature). Same goes for both Spirit and Speechless in Original Song. Decry their quality all you want, but songs from living legends or new Oscar favorites should be discounted at your own risk.
That being said, I would frankly love to see The Lion King left out of Visual Effects. Sure, the animation was pretty lifelike, but the movie as a whole was butt ugly and I’d love to see artistry play a factor in the nominations.
@Bruno. Not only Hillbilly Elegy are a good chance to win for Glenn Close ( and even Amy Adams ) there also Sunset Boulevard and Four Good Days.
It would be great if an actor directed by Rodrigo García win the Oscar and Glenn Close would It be perfect for that.
LOL at whatever troll has that much time on his/her hands to impersonate posters who rarely post anymore.
Best Actress, its puzzling tt Erivo is rank 3rd, if anytink, i feel Woodard n Awkwafina have a stronger case than her. Saoirse shld b 3rd or 4th place. IMO, the vulnerable one among the 1st tier 4 white actresses is Scarjo.
She really shoot herself in the foot w her stance on Woody Allen in the v recent, widely seen Vanity Fair article!! I admire her honesty n loyalty, but thr's a place n time for everything!! Botching up yo oscar chances in yo Industry article is not o them!!
I cld see the tide turns agst her w Lupita, Woodard and/or Awkwafina rising to edge her out!!
Her publicist must b working OT to salvage this crisis!! 😂
I love the imposter(s). Keeps the site current and edgy.
Pacino is a lock.
I am really touched by your words Bruno. Once one performance that I thought was better than mine (McCarthy) was not racking up wins, I thought I was safe from the standout in the category (Colman). I truly thought the power of my overdue status could rob Colman, who would easily win in supporting in the future. Alas it was not meant to be, but I am Glenn freaking Close and my next nomination is my win and the standing ovation will be the sweetest we have seen Bruno my boy!
I have my theory that the imposter is one person and even being offended by him/herself (for show) because they want me to add Disquz or whatever it's called. I shant be bullied. I do not have the time to make adjustments to the site during the peak of awards season. I mean it's silly. Who thinks we have time for renovations before the Oscar?
I should add that i do sometimes think the movie stars impersonations are funny but pretending to be other commenters is rude and nver funny. Please stop if you have any decency. If you dont carry on i suppose because I'm not renovating the site during dec- feb. period.
John Waters just released his Top 10! It's just as wild as ever: 1) Climax 2) Joan of Arc (Dumont) 3) Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood 4) Border 5) Amazing Grace 6) Hail Satan? 7) Pain and Glory 8) The Golden Glove 9) The Souvenir 10) Joker
I keep documentaries separate, but if I did combine them, Amazing Grace would be my #1 overall. I've seen 7 (all but #2, 6 & 8), which is more than usual. It certainly isn't my Top 10, but then again it doesn't look like anybody else's either.