Oscar Predictions for August Complete!
Sunday, August 11, 2019 at 4:50PM It only took three days to revamp all the charts. Woohoo. Have a looksie.
In this mass overhaul we have major gains for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and The Farewell, naturally, since both have proven themselves with critics and at the box office already. Experiencing small gains are The Irishman and Just Mercy (now that they're officially going to be premiering this year), The Lighthouse and 1917 (after their stunning teases), and Judy (sigh). Small losses were incurred by Harriet (after a somewhat generic trailer) and The Report (given Amazon's sudden cold feet about regular theatrical exposure for their films). Films tumbling downward since our April Foolish wild guesswork include The Good Liar, Ford v Ferrari, and The Goldfinch (though we're definitely looking forward to two of those).
We've also added documentary predictions for the first time this year though this is still blindfolded guesswork since we won't know what's actually eligible and long-listed for quite some time still.
All Pages
INDEX | PICTURE | DIRECTOR |
ACTRESS | ACTOR | SUPP ACTRESS |
SUPP ACTOR | SCREENPLAY |
FOREIGN FILM | ANIMATION, DOCS |
VISUALS | SOUND
Reader Comments (29)
I don't believe that Brazil will choose The Invisible Life of Euridice Gusmau, but Bacurau, which won a higher prize in Cannes.
Well... they fucked up with Aquarius two years ago.
Best Actress looks depressing
Thomas Newman (1917) not even mentioned? Surely he’s almost a default?
For Best Animated Feature Film should you replace Klaus with Weathering with You seeing how it's a GKIDS film and has a North America premiere at the 2019 Toronto International Film Festival please?
Loving all the women in the mix for Best Director!!!
I thought this year's Foreign Film category containing CAPHARNAUM, ROMA and SHOPLIFTERS was heavenly. If next year has PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE (absolutely my favourite/the best film of 2019 so far), OUT STEALING HORSES, PAIN AND GLORY and THE INVISIBLE LIFE OF EURIDICE GUSMAO (which I loved so much more than BACURAU, so I hope they go with it), I will absolutely fall in love with this category.
(If only they didn't feel the need to go with mediocre filler like NEVER LOOK AWAY or THE INSULT in the fifth slot...)
Watch out for the grandmom in The Farewell, could be the actual WINNER for supporting actress
Shocked to see DiCaprio so low on the list. Seems impossible to ignore him if the film’s getting in. (And I don’t see it not getting in).
I second Tim: Thomas Newman seems like a lock for a nomination (and possibly a win)
I’m guessing The Farewell will have to be considered in Best Adapted Screenplay. It was a story on This American Life well before she wrote the script. But, I bet she walks away with the nomination regardless of which category it qualifies under.
Dieter and Tim: Remember, Dunkirk didn't get an acting nomination. If this is a similar movie in terms of feel? Not off base to guess it gets no acting nods.
Nice update, but you're underestimating South Korea's Parasite in the foreign film category. It's my favorite film of the year so far. The fact that Korea has never been nominated is outrageous. Here's hoping that Parasite will snag Korea not only a nom, but a win.
FBC -- i can't wait to see that because i love Bong Joon-ho but historically the Academy has been very resistant to Asian cinema so I'm not sure it's the shoo-in people think it is. They desperately need some Asian cinema fans or Asian members on their executive committee. After Kurosawa in the 1950s they just haven't seemed to care AT ALL about Asian cinema. The only notable exception is basically the career of Ang Lee who was educated in the US and is part of Hollywood in a lot of ways. I mean when you stop to consider that India and China and Taiwan and Vietnam and Hong Kong... none of these countries have had more than 3 nominations and Thailand and South Korea and The Philipines have never had *any* . It is beyond crazy....the Academy clearly has a problem when it comes to Asian and South Asian cinema.
Volvagia -- they're talking about Thomas Newman the composer. I hadn't realized he was doing the score so they're right that I should have inc;uded hime. Not sure how i Missed it since I was going over all the movies that previously hadn't had a composer attached.
Fig -- interesting! But you know how fast and loose they play with these things. I still can't get over GANGS OF NEW YORK getting to choose Original after years of press that it was adapted. etcetera
Song - 'Spirit' by Beyonce is the leading LION KING song.
Visual Effects - it will be interesting to see if either or both of the high profile de-aging films get in: GEMINI MAN or THE IRISHMAN?
Warner Bros sound like they're gearing up to really push JOKER. With its placement at Venice and TIFF, and intriguing trailer, I suspect Joaquin Phoenix is heading for an Actor nomination and the film could even place in Best Picture.
The Oscars are earlier next year so there will be even less time to see films in December. LITTLE WOMEN, CATS and STAR WARS will probably get the most attention. Will JUST MERCY and CLEMENCY get lost in the crowd?
PARASITE will make it in. It's going to be a movie people will talk about. A LOT. Yes, it's not an "Academy" movie but it's festival/international BO success should push it through.
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At this stage really pulling for Wang to get in for Director - plus Waititi, Mendes, and Baumbach (since I really, really, really want those 3 films to be something special).
I would love to see a woman won one of the screenplay Oscars this year. We might have at least four high-profile names in the mix (just from your chart, Lulu Wang, Lena Waithe, Kasi Lemmons, and Greta Gerwig) and a woman hasn't won since 2007 with Diablo Cody and Juno.
I don't expect it to have a big impact, but Lucy in the Sky has just been scheduled for October release.
As a Brazilian, I want Ad Astra and The Lighthouse for best picture nominees, The Invisible Life as international nominee, The Edge of democracy as documentary nominee. Our nazist elected president would die to see this after nominee Brazilian audiovisual as a enemy.
As a cinephile I am rooting for
Pain and Glory, The Farewell, Parasite, Portrait of a Lady on Fire as best picture, directing, screenwriting and acting nominees
The Lighthouse nominee for everything
The Irishman nominee for everything
Joker nominee for everything
Ad Astra nominee for everything
Gong Li nominated
They Shall Not Grow Old nominee for documentary!
Monos nominee for international film
Blackbird (if is great!) nominee for everything!
PLUS:
IAN MCKELLEN NOMINEE AND WINNER!
I seriously would not count on the Spanish Academy submitting Almodovar's "Pain & Glory" representing Spain. They will likely be picking up Amenabar's "Mientras dure la guerra" telling the last days of legendary Spanish writer Miguel de Unamuno. It looks way more award-friendly (historical) and the fact that the Spanish Academy does not like Almodovar is well known. On the next Goyas I only expect "Pain & Glory" to win Lead Actor, maybe supporting Actor and maybe score or cinematography.
Undervaluing LITTLE WOMEN
I want Jojo Rabbit to be great and get nominated in every category, but I cannot imagine a world where that happens.
I saw Parasite two days ago and it deserves a best picture nomination,not only foreign film. The best I've seen all year so far. It deserves what ROMA got last year
Parasite is not only the film of the year it may simply the greatest film I have ever seen.
lily & matt - so exciting to hear this. I hope it happens (it's ridiculous that South Korea has never been nominated)... but i dont trust the Academy with Asian films. They've been rude to them time and time again.
Parasite and Pain & Glory will DEFINITELY be nominated. I think there would be an uproar if they were not (and thankfully, I think, the external jurists who save the best from being overlooked will save them). Not that Pain & Glory will need the help. Pain & Glory is a shoo-in: a movie about movies (which Hollywood loves). In fact, I believe it will win. I also believe that Almodovar will be nominated. And it doesn't hurt that there are two outstanding performances from Antonio Banderas and Nora Navas (Penelope Cruz is fine, but it's a very small role with minimal impact).
However, Parasite is the far more superior film, with four outstanding performances. Not to mention that the screenplay is fucking amazing, almost perfect. Alas it would take a miracle for Bong Joon-ho to get a directing nomination, even though he deserves it more than most of the assumed front-runners.
Nathaniel - Well considering Korea didn’t even submit The Handmaiden... they deserve the snubs.