Oscar Volley: Split predictions in Adapted and Original Screenplay!

Team Experience is discussing the various Oscar categories. Here's Matt St. Clair, Christopher James, Lynn Lee and Josh Bierman discussing the screenplays.

MATT ST. CLAIR: Hello all. So, in Best Adapted Screenplay, I think that it remains Jane Campion's to lose but Maggie Gyllenhaal could be The Lost Daughter's sole win here instead, given the clear passion it has. What do you guys think?

CHRISTOPHER JAMES: Thanks for kicking us off, Matt! As in Best Picture, The Power of the Dog is the one to beat. I still think it will ultimately be the big winner of the night, but it is vulnerable...

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Oscar Volley: Who knew that Best Original Screenplay would so divide us?

Our Oscar Volleys continue with  Eric Blume, Baby Clyde, and Gabriel Mayora with surprising confessions, hot takes, and unexpected sentiment.

Eric Blume:  I suspect we have three locks for nominations in this category: Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza, Kenneth Branagh for Belfast, and Adam McKay for Don't Look Up!  I am a colossal fan of PTA, but it makes me sad to think he could finally win his Oscar for one of his weaker pictures.  I am mystified by the rave reaction to Licorice Pizza, which is wonderful in patches, but the screenplay is so meandering and fails to culminate in anything dramatically. Plus, it's a genre we've seen hundreds of times. PTA is able to bring his directorial dazzle to it, but as a script, it's severely undercooked.  I do think Don't Look Up! has a magnificent setup for a comedy, but the jokes are flabby and tepid, and it's not exactly razor sharp in terms of structure or dialogue.  The script just kind of lays there.  Of the three, I think Branagh's script is the strongest: it indeed does culminate in something dramatically, plus it's tight and contained, and captures the Irish humor dead-on. 

Belfast is no masterpiece, but it feels true, has some vivid characterizations, and Branagh finds a good balance between how the personal and political flow over each other.  What are your feelings on these three contenders?

Baby Clyde: I disliked Licorice Pizza immensely...

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Interview: Fran Kranz on His Directorial Debut, ‘Mass’

By Abe Friedtanzer

In the middle of this second virtual Sundance, I was fortunate to be able to revisit one of the highlights of the first virtual edition which is now eligible for awards consideration: Mass. It’s been troubling to see that, despite initial early buzz for the film and for its cast, particularly Ann Dowd, it’s missed out at a number of important precursors, including that SAG Cast nomination that should have been... 

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Which movies will squeeze into the last two slots of the Best Picture lineup?

by Nathaniel R

Time for Oscar chart updates. And, the way we see it there are two relatively "open" slots in Best Picture with five films either showing some form of strength at the moment or feeling like they might happen. But which will prevail?

PICTURE
If we were still in a sliding scale Best Picture situation as we were at this time last year we'd only be predicting 8 films for the top honor, and in this order: All locked up -- The Power of the Dog, West Side Story, Belfast, King Richard, Dune, Don't Look Up; The Probablies - CODA and Licorice Pizza. But the Academy has ruled that we're back to a full top ten list like we had (briefly) in 2009 and 2010. So there are two spots open...

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Oscar Chart Updates: Picture, Director, Screenplay, and more...

Jane Campion's new film Power of the Dog has been named the Centerpiece for the New York Film Festival. Perhaps it's wishful thinking (we've loved Campion forever) but we're betting big on it for the Oscar race. The film is set in 1920s rural Montana and stars Benedict Cumberbatch and Jesse Plemons as brothers who are at odds. The rift between them grows wider once the younger brother brings a new wife (Kirsten Dunst) home. The novel by Thomas Savage has been compared to works like East of Eden and Brokeback Mountain and if the film can live up to either of those classics' screen adaptations it will be something special.

We've been working hard on the first Oscar charts of the year.  The four acting categories and international film have yet to be posted, but the rest of the charts are now up...

• PICTURE - Will streamers like Netflix or Amazon prevail or will more traditional distributors like MGM/UA, Searchlight, Focus, A24, and SPC rise up? So many films sound exciting but we won't know which deliver on their promise until later in the year.  
• DIRECTOR - Jane Campion could become the first woman ever nominated twice in Best Director
• SCREENPLAYS  - Numerous brilliant writers have new films coming but however will they choose between Asghar Farhadi, Joel Coen, Tony Kushner, Pedro Almodóvar, Mike Mills, and Paul Thomas Anderson?
• VISUAL CATEGORIES - There's (presumably) eye candy aplenty in Dune, Last Night in Soho, House of Gucci, and Nightmare Alley
• SOUND CATEGORIES - Can it finally be Nicholas Britell's year or will he split his support with three movies (Carmen, Don't Look Up, Cruella)?
• ANIMATED FEATURE - Will Disney's musical Encanto be the frontrunner? Will Flee and Belle be the more adventurous citations?
• PREDICTION INDEX - the overview snapshot