Final Pre-Festival Oscar Charts
Thursday, August 31, 2017 at 6:03PM 
All Oscar charts have been updated. It's mostly huge gains for Alexander Payne's Downsizing and Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water (both premiering hot with "masterpiece!" reviews at the Venice Film Festival) but there are also a few other nips and tucks on each chart given buzz shifting, release date movies (goodbye Mary Magdalene), probably category hijinx (Last Flag Flying, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, etcetera), and lack of distribution news for certain pictures.
Check out the charts and report back, won'cha?
• INDEX • PICTURE • DIRECTOR • ACTRESS • ACTOR • SUPPORTING ACTRESS • SUPPORTING ACTOR • VISUAL CATEGORIES • SOUND CATEGORIES • SCREENPLAYS • ANIMATED FEATURES • FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILMS • FOREIGN SUBMISSIONS PT 1 • FOREIGN SUBMISSIONS PT 2 • FOREIGN SUBMISSIONS PT 3
Reader Comments (34)
I'm surprised you didn't add Richard Jenkins as a supporting actor possibility for The Shape of Water. Actors love him and he's gotten strong notices too, along with Sally Hawkins and Octavia Spencer.
Also, as much as it pains me to say it, Christoph Waltz has been mentioned several times in reviews as a highlight in Downsizing. Seems like a very flashy and memorable role (and we know that Oscar likes it when he's over-the-top and flashy).
I like your optimism in predicting Dee Rees, but I just have this gut feeling that she's not part of the directors' club yet. (Autocorrect changed "gut" to "guy" initially, which makes me think that Autocorrect agrees with me.)
Also, I worry that The Florida Project is too small a film to get any awards attention, even for an actor of Willem Dafoe's caliber/fame.
Your predictions are very uneven.
i wasn't crazy about THE SHAPE OF WATER from the trailer, but these reviews excite me! i'd love sally to have an oscar on her mantel.
Vanity Fair said someone who saw MOTHER!, told them that Pfeiffer is Oscar-worthy.
"Someone who has seen the film tells us that both Lawrence and Pfeiffer’s performances are “incredibly intense,” but suggests that Pfeiffer’s tour de force is particularly worthy of supporting-actress consideration and could even finally clinch an Oscar win for the three-time nominee."
https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2017/08/mother-jennifer-lawrence-michelle-pfeiffer
I'm not totally buying it...yet, but it would be so sweet.
Let me know when you finally put Streep in the top 5........sorry, she will be a threat to all of the current top five and we all know it.
Loving the idea of a 10 actress lineup of veterans with no upstart it girls.
@Jamie
Streep getting a 21st nod is her only threat to the category. Too many divine contenders in said category for her to be anything else but a nominated also-ran.
Waltz getting a third nod makes sense have two wins. He'll forever be a supporting actor perennial.
@3rtful- so we agree Streep will be nominated?
1) Let's talk about the honorary Oscars. Next tuesday the Governors will reunite and vote.
Who will they be?
US Actors: Glenn Close, Sigourney Weaver, Michelle Pfeiffer, Angela Basset, Samuel L. Jackson, Harrison Ford,
British Actors: Albert Finney, Ian McKellen**, Andy Serkis
World Actors: Gong Li, Catherine Deneuve, Max Von Sydow, Liv Ullman, Alain Delon, Gerard Depardieu, Isabelle Huppert, Leslie Caron, Donald Sutherland,
Directors: Werner Herzog, Ridley Scott*, Peter Weir, Lina Wetmuller, Agnés Varda, Mike Leigh, David Lynch, David Cronenberg, Wong Kar Wai, Laurence Kasdan,
Musician: Phillip Glass, Thomas Newman,
Cinematographers: Roger Deakins,
Thalberg: Kathleen Kennedy, Robert Evans, Scott Rudin, Peter Jackson, Brad Pitt, John Lasseter, Harvey Weinstein,
Jean Hersholt: Vanessa Redgrave, Susan Sarandon, Doris Day, Mia Farrow, Danny Gloover, Jane Fonda, George Clooney
*also for the Thalberg
**also for the Humanitarian
My dreams vote:
Honorary: Liv Ullman, Max Von Sydow
Humanitarian: Vanessa Redgrave
Thalberg: Kathleen Kennedy or Robert Evans
or
Honorary: Catherine Deneuve, Gong Li, Ian McKellen
Humanitarian: Danny Glover
Your votes?
2) My votes today:
ANIMATED FILM: Coco, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The Shape of Water, Wonder Wheel, The Post, The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Downsizing or The Florida Project.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Call me by your name, Mudbound, Blade Runner 2049, On Chesil Beach, The Children Act (yes, Ian McEwan TWO TIMES! \o/)
S. ACTRESS: Claire Foy, Melissa Leo, Hong Chau, La Pfeiffer, Leslie Manville or Octavia Spencer.
S. ACTOR: Armie Hammer, Michael Stuhlbarg, Willem Dafoe, Jason Mitchell, Harrison Ford or Jim Belushi.
ACTOR: Oldman, Chalamet, Lewis, Washington, Bardem / Hanks / Carell / Cranston.
ACTRES: Close, Winslet, Ronan, Hawkins, Streep.
DIRECTING: Nolan, Villeneuve, Del Toro, Guadaguino, Spielberg.
PICTURE: The Post, Dunkirk, Call me by your name, Blade Runner 2049, Mudbound, Downsizig, The Shape of Water, Wonder Wheel,
i don't know what really counts for these honorary awards, but of the US actors, the only one that makes sense RIGHT NOW to me is Harrison Ford. But of the foreign actors, the all makes sense except for Huppert (she's still prolific). Would love to see Delon get it.
I'm holding out hope for Thomas Newman winning a competitive award.
really interesting list for the directors.
Have any of you seen that extended clip of mother! released a few days ago between Lawrence and Pfeiffer? This is definitely not a throw-away performance from Pfeiffer. She looks incredibly intense in this film. I know I shouldn't get carried away but her buzzy performance in mother!, coupled with her critically-acclaimed Emmy-nominated performance in The Wizard of Lies and the glossy remake of Murder on the Orient Express, seems like a prime opportunity for a welcome back Oscar nomination.
Magnolia have IN THE FADE, so sadly it's probably up entirely to a groundswell of critical support to push her into the race. I don't know if Magnolia have ever led a campaign to an acting nomination...
Don't know about those supporting actor predictions. Can Willem Dafoe and Michael Shannon both exist in the same place at the same time?
I was initially going to yell at you for not pushing Hawkins in Maudie way up in the charts, until I realised she's now getting mega-raves for the del Toro film. I'm so excited for her. I love her so.
From what I've seen of the rest of the 'unreleased' field: Kruger is perfectly good in In the Fade but not remotely spectacular. Even if it was a high-profile English-language indie with an even bigger star in question, that performance would struggle to get shortlisted anywhere. The role really just isn't as showy as it sounds, and the film is a bit nothing.
If anything, Kruger probably came closer with Basterds than she is likely to with this film. So I'm not sure what she's doing so high up on the list.
Also Julianne is perfectly lovely but has absolutely nothing to do in Wonderstruck. I loved the film but don't see it taking off with AMPASS. It's very small and intimate and probably a bit 'chilly' again for most people.
Either way, Julianne won't be featuring in any awards conversation this year. Even within that ensemble hers is not really the best supporting performance.
But that's fine. Because Julianne has an Oscar. Which still seems too amazing to be true.
Julianne Moore won the Best Actress Academy Award.
Damn you Nick Davis damn you for getting me addicted to your crack then taking it away because you have other shit to do. (I say this with affection not frightful obsession)
Choosing Lawrence in a September horror film over Streep-Spielberg at Christmas seems like a bad bet.
If Amazon is so bullish about the Woody Allen film that they're launching it in the thick of awards season, I think we've got to assume it's at least potentially another Midnight in Paris
It is interesting that *every* Woody Allen film since, what?, Cassandra's Dream (2007) has been released in the summer, including of course his most recent raft of Oscar winners (Blue Jasmine, Midnight in Paris, and Vicky Christina Barcelona). It's incredibly rare to have a Match Point arrive in the fall/winter, so the release strategy for Wonder Wheel is intriguing. I hope Kate Winslet, for one, knocks it out of the park, Mildred Pierce-style.
Did you see this playlist article on Oscar predictions...
"No, Michelle Pfeiffer isn't getting a nomination gay twitter"
http://theplaylist.net/oscars-august-dunkirk-20170830/2/#cb-content
Killjoys. That headline made me laugh though.
What is this inside info they claim to have?
I still believe Pfeiffer will get a nomination at the very least.
I love Streep but I want her to be the underdog for a change this year since her performance will be seen last among the female contenders.
Right now I'm counting the day darling Timothee Chalamet will emerge and really seal the deal as the one to beat in the Best Actor category.
So, MOTHER! got an 18 certificate in the UK.
The 18 rating translates to the very hardest Rs and NC-17s. Previous Oscar-nominated 18-rated films include THE WOLF OF WALL STREET, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO and ELLE.
(To give you an indication, even SAUSAGE PARTY, DEADPOOL, and Aronofsky's previous disturbing BLACK SWAN only got a 15 in the UK)
http://www.bbfc.co.uk/releases/mother-2017
It is rated 18 for 'strong violence'. How do we think that will play into MOTHER!'s Oscar chances, if at all?
--
@mikey67: I share your disdain towards It Girls. 'Upstart' is so apropos.
goran -- it's all so subjective though. there are a couple of people really obsessed with Kruger's performance and i talked to someone recently who'd seen Wonderstruck and going on and on about how brilliant Julianne is in it.
in other words I dont doubt that these are strongly held opinions of yours but movies really have to have consensus feelings before we can know as it were.
Mike -- listen, i dont know about them either. The supporting actor race seems like a big nothing thus far. I could actually have ZERO of five. we'll see who gains some heat because nobody seems to have any yet in that category
Jack - that would be cool and i'm hoping i love the performance as much as everyone who has seen it (i'm seeing it in a week's time) but i keep going back to two things. 1) romantic drama which tends to be oscar's blind spot with men and 2) he's 21 years old which would make him the third youngest Best Actor nominee of all time and the youngest since (gulp) Mickey Rooney in 1939... which seems unlikely given their double standards for male actors.
If Best Supporting Actor is wide open, there are, unusually, a number of performances by Native American actors that could be considered.
Michael Greyeyes in "Woman Walks Ahead"
Wes Studi and Adam Beach in "Hostiles"
Gil Birmingham and Graham Greene in "Wind River"
Chalamet is (sadly) not happening. I truly doubt he'll get the critics throwing prizes at him (predominantly straight men, after all - everybody leapt at Ali from Moonlight for instance and I suspect they'll go to Stuhlbarg). And as Nat said, Oscar almost never goes for young men, then add its a romance and a GAY romance and a gay UNDERAGE romance. Nope.
Zoe Kazan "The Big Sick" and Aubrey Plaza " Ingrid Goes West" both deserve Best Actress Oscar Consideration!!
I predict that if Fishburne gets a nomination, it will be for Last Flag Flying, not Woman Walks Ahead - and if Chastain gets a nod, it will be for Molly's Game, not Woman Walks Ahead. I'm dubious of films when they don't have much prestige behind the scenes.
Already 16 countries have selected their films to compete for the Oscar for Best Foreign Film, they are (Country, title, director)
Azerbaijan: Pomegranate Orchard (Ilgar Najaf)
Belgium: Racer and the Jailbird (Michaël R. Roskam)
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Men Don't Cry (Alena Drljevića)
Croatia: Quit Staring at My Plate (Hana Jušić)
Dominican Republic: Carpinteros (José María Cabral)
Georgia: Scary Mother (Ana Urushadze)
Germany: In the Fade (Fatih Akin)
Iraq: The Dark Wind (Hussein Hassan)
Nepal: White Sun (Deepak Rauniyar)
Palestine: Wajib (Annemarie Jacir)
Sweden: The Square (Ruben Östlund)
Switzerland: The Divine Order (Petra Biondina Volpe)
Thailand: By the Time It Gets Dark (Anocha Suwichakornpong)
Turkey: Ayla (Can Ulkay)
Ukraine: Black Level (Valentyn Vasyanovych)
Venezuela: El Inca (Ignacio Castillo Cottin)
Hey Nathaniel, i know everybody is a bit skeptical about Daniel Day-Lewis playing "a fashion designer in the 50s" in Phantom Thread, but just to give a bit of a background, he is playing Charles James, one of the greatest fashion designers all time, whom influenced Christian Dior and many other great designers, it just happens that James didn't work in a time that fashion was a fashionable profession so after his death and legacy, he is still quite underrated
I am also super interested on what the script is gonna be about, since he was quite a enigmatic character, and knowing that Paul Thomas Anderson love some darkness human behaviour, i can't wait to see it.
Reax towards DOWNSIZING seem to have cooled considerably, and I'm already seeing some backlash from AAPI critics/bloggers in my feed towards Hong Chau's stereotypical character. She sounds great, but the part sounds awful, like a funny Asian version of Mammy from Gone With the Wind.
Have some fears that this year's Oscars will gear up to be all-white again, so hoping for some good news about Denzel's and Dee Rees's new movies during TIFF.