Shorts Predictions -- All Oscar Categories Complete!
Monday, January 21, 2019 at 11:37AM by Nathaniel R
some of the shorts contenders we're most curious about after investigating the titles
For better or worse all of the Oscar predictions are completed including the last three hold outs: Live Action Short, Animated Short, and Documentary Short. Though we have yet to see the shorts (that'll have to wait until nominations) predictions were made via an unholy combo of hunches, IMDb ratings, plot descriptions, tea leaves, blind faith, coin tossing, and a teensy bit but not much of seeing what other people around the web are saying but never following that exactly because nobody ever scores 5/5 in all shorts categories. Including me, of course, but there's always a first time. Maybe?
Final Predictions All Categories
INDEX | PICTURE | DIRECTOR |
ACTRESS | ACTOR | SUPP ACTRESS |
SUPP ACTOR | SCREENPLAY |
FOREIGN FILM | ANIMATION, DOCS, SHORTS |
VISUALS | SOUND
Reader Comments (7)
Having seen all the animated shorts you listed (but 1) I think it's a good guess. Bao and One Small Step seem to be the best bets to me, the prior for having made a cultural impact the latter for being a real heart tugger.
I could see Bird Karma making it in. There's not much going on there narratively, but the animation is impressive and that can make a big difference in this category.
There's an interesting through line of generational relationships and/or self-sacrifice going on in the 10 shorts you listed (except Animal Therapy, the only one I haven't seen so maybe). All the others touch on one or both of those themes. Just fascinating.
It's worth noting that 'Detainment' has caused some considerable controversy in the UK (newspapers, television) because the family of Jamie Bulger (the boy who was killed by the two subjects of the documentary) were not told it was going to be made and are deeply unhappy about the whole thing. They have trying to have it banned. I'm not sure this has made it over to the US, but I imagine if it gets nominated it will dampen its chances.
Robert -- i'm excited to see them, since i've only seen one. Loved loved loved BAO despite wondering if the metaphor was a bit messy.
Evangelina -- interesting. thanks for sharing. It seems to be well liked critically which is why I predicted it.
everyone -- isn't it weird how many short films are about children every year?
I've seen A Night at the Garden. It's not good, but it might impress them - archival footage of a Nazi rally held at Madison Square Garden with, basically, a horror movie score slapped on top.
It is odd how many shorts are about children. Maybe people subconsciously feel like the size of the film has to match the size of its subject. I dunno. Maybe that's a stretch.
It's equally odd (or at least unfortunate) to me, that we don't live in a short film renaissance. They're more accessible than ever, and demand minimal commitment, but they're still the step children of the Oscars (and the industry). if a streaming service collected and packaged them as an anthology series or something (yes I'm sure there are rights issue, but I'm talking hypothetically here), people might watch them. They could go from being the least accessible Oscar categories to the most.
I'm really looking forward to the Best Animated Short category, as I do every year. Cartoon Brew seems down on the shortlisted films, but I think all of the films are fascinating. I'm personally hoping Animal Behaviour and One Small Step make the cut.
Sorry - I missed the earlier final update on Best Picture. I still harbor my privately held belief that "First Man" will get slot number nine of nine because of its potential to receive first place picks from A.M.P.A.S. members in the crafts guilds. Keep an eye on the announcement of the nominees for Production Design on Oscar morning - if "First Man" is shut out here, then I am completely wrong and the film does not stand a chance.
Back on topic - stories about adults interacting with other adults strike me as requiring more complicated thematic and narrative structures than can be explicated inside of 40 minutes. Stories involving children can invoke thematic concepts of things like right versus wrong as absolutes without needing to address the messy grey spaces in between. Character development is also simplified when your lead is seven instead of forty-seven.
I suspect someone may mention "sitcoms" as a counterargument...I suggest they are the exception that proves the rule. A 30-minute situation comedy episode has the character development and backstory already handled by the series "book" and the audience already knowing much of what a short film creative team must build from scratch.
Animated shorts also historically present a special case. Televised cartoons have had a predominately youthful target audience, so writers have a motivation to write about them more often than adults.