Team Experience Predictions Chart - Round 4 - Post Holidays, Pre Awards Shows

We're polling the Team Film Experience on where the Oscar race stands. This week Best Picture, Director, and the Acting and Writing categories.

It has been over a month since we’ve checked in on the directing, acting and writing categories. Since then, Avatar has soared at the box office, Babylon has flopped and both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards have announced their nominations. Some categories look completely different than they did at the end of November. Others, funny enough, remain the same. One category has a contender who is unanimously on the top of everyone’s predictions… and it’s not the one you think. 

Check out our predictions after the jump…

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Oscar Volley: Who will take the fifth slot in Best Actress?

Team Experience will be discussing each Oscar category as we head into the precursors. Here's Nick Taylor and Eurocheese...  

NICK: We’ve arrived at the most crowded acting category of year, which doesn’t necessarily mean this category will be difficult to predict. If you look at the fifteen women in Nathaniel’s Best Actress predictions -- I think Lesley Manville should be higher for Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris -- you can see that the fifth slot is going to be a bloodbath. It makes it even harder to narrow things down when so many of the turns are fantastic. The sheer amount of chaos offered from the this category in the past couple years makes it hard for me to feel comfortable with setting anything in stone even as we reach the end of the year. 

I wanna honor the messiness of the category, from year to year, and spice up how we order this volley. Euro, of all the leading actresses from 2022 with minimal-to-no Oscar buzz, who would you rank among the very best?

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Team Experience Predix - Round 1: Post-Thanksgiving Snapshot

We'll be polling Team Experience biweekly to get their (collective) take on the Oscar race. This week, the 'Big Six' categories and Screenplay prizes.

THE FABELMANS

BEST PICTURE

Click to get expanded view.It’s a dangerous business to be an early frontrunner. However, if anyone can handle that title, it’s Steven Spielberg...

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The glorious Danielle Deadwyler in "Till"

by Nathaniel R

Danielle Deadwyler in "Till"

Often times Oscar buzz arrives before a performance seen on the basis that the role will be a) meaty b) important-feeling and c) feature typically awards-friendly elements. There's a reason this happens frequently. Voters of all awards bodies, not just the Academy, are sometimes guilty of awarding the role in question rather than thinking about what the actor actually did with their big opportunity. The unfortunate byproduct of this is that sometimes, no matter how much an actor elevates it, people might assume "well, it was the role". In these scenarios even the enthusiasm around the performance can feel a little rote because it's expected. It arguably happens with most biopic roles now. The role of Mamie Till-Mobely, the mother of Emmett Till who channeled her grief at her son's murder into Civil Rights activism, meets all those pre-release requirements for buzz and a likely nomination even if Danielle Deadwyler hadn't been incredible. The very good news is that she most definitely is...

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Almost There: Lesley Manville in "Another Year"

by Cláudio Alves

With The Crown's fifth season comes a new opportunity for the world to bask in the glory of Lesley Manville. As Princess Margaret, she's a charismatic scene-stealer, indulging in all the melodrama thrown at her whilst brandishing a cigarette holder like a conductor's baton. Though a fair share of high-class glamour characterizes both her new Netflix gig and the role that earned her an Oscar nomination, that's not always the register within which Manville moves. You could even argue that she built her career on playing the opposite sort of people, working-class characters like the titular Mrs. Harris in this year's Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris – another outstanding performance.

Another example is Mary in Mike Leigh's Another Year. Prior to Phantom Thread, that 2010 drama surely marked the closest the actress had ever come to Oscar gold…

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