Nathaniel's final predix: What kind of Oscar night will we be having?

by Nathaniel R

The big story from the SAG Awards last weekend was the continuing rise of Conclave and A Complete Unknown in the awards race. The fires in Los Angeles had previously wreaked havoc on people’s lives, many of whom work in the industry we obsess over so the event carried that story forward. More superficially (we recognize that this hardly matters in context!) the fires disrupted the usual flow from December’s mandatory “Best of” list explosion through the call and response of the various precursors and on to Oscar night. This makes it far more difficult than usual to predict what’s coming as there’s not necessarily any cause and effect from one event to the next given the messy timelines of voting. 

How much did the Emilia Perez scandal hurt a film oscar voters clearly loved in January? How many more voters watched I’m Still Here AFTER its surprising success on nomination morning? Do people love The Brutalist or merely admire it? Is Anora really out front as the DGA and PGA suggest? Will Conclave prove the adult contemporary tune that tops the charts amongst a sea of rowdy garage band hits (Anora, The Substance), folksy callbacks (A Complete Unknown) and would-be operatic bangers (The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, Dune Part Two)? I have so many questions...

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Split Decision: "Nickel Boys"

In the Split Decision series, two of our writers face off on an Oscar-nominated movie one loves and the other doesn't. Today, Nick Taylor and Nathaniel R discuss Nickel Boys...

NICK: Hello Nathaniel! Hope you’re doing well on this fine day. We’re here, we’re queer, and we’re . . . . I can’t think of another rhyme. What I can think of is Nickel Boys, and how blindsided I was to see it show up in this year’s Best Picture lineup after only showing up in Adapted Screenplay.

I’m happy for the film and RaMell Ross but also confused, and a little annoyed it didn’t make a bigger showing. It’s one of my favorites from this year’s Oscar nominees, and though I get the divisiveness around its first-person POV and how the film actually uses it, I’m a very big fan of what Nickel Boys achieves. That’s been the biggest point of discussion around the film, so maybe it’s best to dive in there? I’m not sure I actually know what you think of Nickel Boys, so lemme hand you the mic. 

NATHANIEL: It's funny how personal feelings are often distracting static when it comes to Oscar expectations, whether you're on the pro or the con side of any given film.  I wasn't the least bit surprised about Nickel Boys crashing Oscar's biggest category after all the breathless raves and its solid if unspectacular showing in the precursors. I'm Still Here was the only Picture nomination that threw me. Sadly,  trust me I didn't want to feel this way, Nickel Boys is my least favourite of the nominated ten...

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The Count vs the Cartel Boss: The César nominations are here.

by Nathaniel R

Pierre Niney as "The Count of Monte Cristo" © Pathe

Since we've always loved French cinema, we follow along with the César Awards each year. Historical adventure The Count of Monte Cristo leads the pack with an astounding 14 nominations. Curiously the second most nominated film, Beating Hearts (13 nods) a romantic drama spanning 20 years, is NOT up for Best Film. It premiered at Cannes to some negative reviews before an October theatrical release. Among the nomination leaders the Oscar-bound trans cartel musical Emilia Pérez (12 nominations) came in third.

Let's look at the fields and discuss and jot down which films we'll have to watch out for in 2025 as they make their way across the ocean...

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DGA, CCA, PGA: Has the race changed or was it always a free-for-all?

by Nathaniel R

Chicken or egg? Egg or chicken? Have the last two weeks of the Oscar race and the very recent prizes from the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and Critics Choice Awards changed the game or were the upcoming 97th Academy Awards always this much of an "anyone's game" free-for-all wherein Anora, The Brutalist, and Emilia Perez all felt possible as the dominant film?  I myself would argue for the latter. The Golden Globes (Emilia Perez dominated with 4 wins) are never the final chapter in any Oscar race, just one of its booziest most memorable chapters.

The dominant story for a week or so was the deflation Emilia Perez's, done in by a social media scandal which opened a very large window for the film's many naysayers to crash through. But it's important to remember that first industry voters loved the trans cartel musical to the breathy tune of 13 Oscar nominations...

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Oh, the long-windedness of Best Pictures!

by Nathaniel R

If THE BRUTALIST wins it will become the third longest Best Picture winner of all time.

Each Oscar chart is now up though details are not yet ironed out on some of them. We've talked about Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor as the charts went up, so now let's talk Best Picture. On the chart you can vote on your favourite daily and you can see the films ranked by all sorts of silly criteria (you're welcome to suggest other criteria) such as MPAA ratings, death count, horniness, release dates, the Bechdel Test, reviews, box office, my personal preference, and of course their running times. 

Oh the longwindedness of our current times! The average length of the Best Picture nominees this year is an astonishing 149 (2 hours and 29 minutes) which is not quite a record but close to it...

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