Oscar Prediction Updates Galore ~ Halfway Mark!

In the upcoming week(s) we'll take a look back through the first half of the film year (and try to tie up loose ends from 2011. I know I know. I have time management issues). But what of the 2012/13 Oscar season? The term halfway mark is completely deceiving when it comes to awards season. We're not at all halfway to Oscar. In fact we've only just begun. We've seen a few mainstream genre pieces that are likely to factor in at least a little (The Avengers, Brave,  Prometheus) but this weekend brings us our first orphan Best Picture contender in the critical darling Beasts of the Southern Wild. We're not at all halfway through the real contenders but since we're halfway through the calendar, it's time to update the charts. 

BEST PICTURE and DIRECTOR
With Gravity pushed back to 2013, let's bet on the other big budget big risk, Ang Lee's adaptation of Life of Pi. The website to that film is up and running now and I keep hitting refresh to watch the tiger's leap and roar. Roooooowwr. Reload. Roooooowwwr. Reload. Roooowwwwrr. Reload. It thrills me every time. I blame my love of both cats and Oscar punditry multiplied by OCD. 

ACTOR, ACTRESS, SUPPORTING ACTOR, SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lots of shuffling on these charts, particularly within both supporting categories. Those players don't come into easy focus until the fall. Newbies on these big charts include the first time actors who play father/daughter in the riveting Beasts of the Southern Wild (interviews real soon), Michelle Pfeiffer in People Like Us (just discussed), Michael Fassbender in Prometheus (just discussed), Isla Fisher from The Great Gatsby and Matthew McConaughey from Magic Mike. Lots more on that film coming which wasn't quite what I was expecting but which I thoroughly enjoyed.

FOREIGN FILMS new chart!
Denmark's  A Royal Affair made big waves at Berlinale and its easy to picture a sumptuous expertly acted costume drama winning AMPAS attention. Cannes hits from lauded auteurs like Haneke, Mungiu, Audiard and Garrone could also be submitted from their countries though it's far too early to know. Any other suggestions? 

And more... VISUAL and AURAL CATEGORIES see gains for Life of Pi and The Avengers the latter of which is probably too big now to ignore at $600 million even though Oscar hasn't been crazy about superhero flicks. Beasts shakes up the adapted SCREENPLAY chart but the original screenplay category is a complete mystery. It's anyone's guess.

There's no changes to the ANIMATED CHART because, quite frankly, I lost the thread there. I've only seen Brave this year. Make more of an effort with the toons, I must.

As always your armchair punditry is welcome in the comments. Where am I off base? Which hunches do you think are smart ones? Make your case or describe what you see in your crystal ball.  

Overheard @ Box Office: "You can't go wrong with Dr. Seuss"

Overheard on Friday:

Woman#1: (Defeated sounding) I have to take my son to see The Lorax. 
Cheerful Female Friend: Ohhh, you can't go wrong with Dr. Seuss!"  

Cheerful Female Friend has clearly not registered the atrocities Hollywood has often made from the good doctor's work. And when one thinks of the colorful wit and profound whimsy of Dr. Seuss surely mainstream heartthrobs like Zac Efron and Taylor Swift pop immediately to mind! What a, uhhhh, perfect vocal match.

But Cheerful Female Friend speaks for all of America. So testifies the box office!

BAKERS DOZEN (Estimates)
01 THE LORAX  $70.7 new  
02 PROJECT X  $20.7 new  
03 ACT OF VALOR $13.7 (cum. $45.2)
04 SAFE HOUSE  $7.2 (cum. $108.2)
05 TYLER PERRY'S GOOD DEEDS $7 (cum. $25.7)
06 JOURNEY 2 THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND $6.9 (cum. $85.6)
07 THE VOW  $6.1 ($111.7)
08 THIS MEANS WAR  $5.6  (cum. $41.6)
09 GHOST RIDER: SPIRIT OF VENGEANCE $4.7 (cum. $44.8)
10 THE ARTIST $3.9 (cum. $37)

11 WANDERLUST  $3.8 (cum. $12.4)
12 GONE $3 (cum. $8.9)
13 CHRONICLE  $1.9 (60.8)

Talking Points

Reese, Amanda, and Jen have seen better box office days

• BLONDE BUT BANKABLE? Reese Witherspoon's movies are generally expensive to make but that return on investment these days. Yikes. This Means War is still a long way from recouping its budget. Jennifer Aniston movies have always had schizophrenic box office performance but Wanderlust is definitely on the weak side of her ticket-selling. How on earth was that sperm-switching comedy more attractive to moviegoers than this one? Meanwhile Amanda Seyfried hasn't been able to scare up crowds from Gone which is weirder. It's a genre flick and can't those usually open even without a name? $8 million for a serial killer picture after two weeks? Ouch. I'm sure it doesn't help that the ads totally make it seem like something Ashley Judd was making in the early 90s.

• EXCUSE ME, BUT WHO IS PAYING TO SEE GHOST RIDER: SPIRIT OF VENGEANCE? I mean, besides our masochistic Michael C. It's already made more money than 2011's "Best Picture"... which had a big uptick post Oscar of course (The Artist's co-nominees took falls but Hugo fell only 14% despite also debuting on DVD so maybe its constant name-checking on Sunday night convinced some holdouts?)

• A SEPARATION more than doubled its screen count and had its first million dollar weekend, bringing its total to $3.7 million at the US box office. That there is a big big number for a non-genre subtitled picture.

What did you see this weekend? Was it worth the money? I was having an offline recuperation weekend so I went to see a Norwegian band at The Bitter End that one of my friends recommended called Mhoo. They're so good. Have a listen! 

They told me they're going to SXSW so if you're heading to that festival check them out.

Even when I'm at non-film events I can't stop thinking of movies. While the girls were singing I kept thinking "Kiki Dunst and Leelee Sobieski should play them in a movie!" 

Oscar's Best Live Action Short Nominees. Predictions!

Amir here. We had a look at the Oscar nominated animated shorts the other day. In the same vein, let’s go over the best live action shorts. As with the previous category, I don’t think this group lives up to the standard set in the past - I would vote for Luke Matheny’s God of Love over any of these choices - but that’s a really high bar.

Pentecost is an Irish comedy about a young altar boy who is grounded by his father after a mishap at the church. When the archbishop visits the local church, the boy’s given a second chance and promised that he can watch his favourite soccer team Liverpool play if he doesn’t screw up again. As someone who cares more deeply about soccer than the church, this film should have been exactly my cup of tea, but I can’t help but wonder how it slid into the top five. I sympathize with the childish sentiments of the protagonist and the film’s funny enough for such a small dose, but the filmmakers should probably be happy with their nomination.

"Raju"

Raju is the only nominee on the serious side. It tells the story of a German couple who are in India to pick up the child they have adopted. Things go awry on the busy streets of Kolkata, however, and dark secrets are revealed about the unfortunate circumstance of their decision. Though Raju effortlessly pulls off the tension in the first half and gives a sense of impending disaster early on, its drama feels unearned. The answer to the central ethical question of the film is so obvious that it seems answered immediately after it's posed. Nevertheless, since the film handles a serious issue, and to its credit is very well made, it might be a serious contender.

Speaking of unearned emotions, The Shore, the second Irish-flavoured entry, stars Ciarán Hinds as a man coming back to Ireland after 25 years of living across the pond. Tepid is the word I’d use to describe it. Director Terry George (of Hotel Rwanda fame) tries to make us feel the emotional charge of the reunion between three old friends, but fails to make any of the characters interesting enough to care for. The scenery is gorgeous and the actors do their best with what they’re given, but this film is only worth watching for Ciaran Hinds’ fantastic voice (and accent) giving us the backstory in a monologue.

Time Freak tells the story of a science student who builds a time machine only to remain tangled in a time web that takes him back to the same few minutes in his life. Of the five films, this is the one that feels least like an Oscar film but I wouldn’t count out its chances. The comedy works very well and the audience seemed to love every minute of it. There was a student film feel to it that I personally could not quite overlook but nevertheless, the new take on the old time machine premise was refreshing enough to give this film a fighting chance at the win.

The final entry is Tuba Atlantic, a Norwegian film about the unlikely friendship between a dying man and a teenage girl sent to be his death angel. The unmistakably Scandinavian absurdist comedy gives its characters more depth and meat to chew on than any other film in the race. Technically impressive, comically violent, and unexpectedly poignant, this is far and away the best film in competition. Quirky as it is, I think it’s ultimately a film everyone will connect with.  

Predictions
This category is tougher to predict than the animated ones. The Shore could potentially appeal to the older demographic, but Tuba Atlantic touches on the same themes and it’s different enough to stand out from the bunch. Time Freak might be a surprise winner. They were open to rewarding young hip comedies last year, weren't they? At the end of the day, I think if anyone can crash Tuba’s party, it will be the topical and dramatic Raju.

Will Win: Tuba Atlantic
Could Win: Raju
Should Win: Tuba Atlantic

Leigh, Farhadi, Jake & Jury Name Berlinale Winners

Remember a couple of days ago when we shared the video of Jake Gyllenhaal handing Meryl Streep her Honoary Golden Bear in Berlin for a stellar career? Apparently he's making a habit of handing over Best Actress prizes. Here he is at the closing night ceremony with Best Actress winner Rachel Mwanza.

This 14 year old Congolese actress played a child soldier in a brutal sounding movie called War Witch.

MAIN PRIZES
The jury this year was headed by the brilliant Mike Leigh. The jury included Jake Gyllenhaal, Anton Corbijn, Charlotte Gainsbourg, François Ozon, Boualem Sansal, Barbara Sukowa and last year's Golden Bear recipient Asghar Farhadi (A Separation) who will now presumably have to jump on a Berlin to Los Angeles flight to prepare for the Oscars.

Prizes, Gay Films and a Possible Danish Oscar Submissions after the jump

Click to read more ...

Link Nation

CineEuropa Melancholia wins big at the Danish Oscars including Best Actress for Kiki!
Daily Notebook Iranian hardliners not too happy with the Oscars and A Separation. (It still seems surprising that A Separation was submitted by Iran, but thank God.)
MCN Jean Dujardin kills on Leno. Clooney had all the precursor heat but Dujardin and Pitt aren't giving up ~Three way race!
Scanners on The Artist. Everybody loves/hates a frontrunner
LA Magazine Viola Davis goes couture 

Towleroad Daniel Radcliffe covers Attitude magazine and continues to establish his PFLAG-style advocacy
Awards Daily Art Directors Guild wins go to Hugo (period), Harry Potter 7.2 (fantasy) and Dragon Tattoo (contemporary) 
Gold Derby still thinks Meryl Streep is going to win the Oscar for The Iron Lady. Five reasons why.
Cinema Blend Marc Webb wants to differentiate his Amazing Spider-Man from Sam Raimi's blockbuster. Promises Spidy with a sense of humor. 
NPR good piece on Madonna's endurance and the difficult process of aging in public.  

Toon Town!
Rango took top honors at the Annie Awards though there was a Pic/Director split there with Jennifer Yuh Nelson taking the latter for Kung Fu Panda 2. The Adventures of Tintin won Best Score for John Williams. Best short went to Minkyu Lee for Adam and Dog which I bring up because I was just looking at its tumblr and though "huh. I want to see this" and it surprised to beat out more high profile entries like three Oscar nominees La Luna, Wild Life and Sunday. Here's the teaser...

Adam and dog Trailer from Minkyu on Vimeo.

And for those readers that are always suggesting a voicework Oscar category, that particular prize at the Annies went to Bill Nighy for voicing Grandsanta in Arthur Christmas. He beat out Oscar nominee Gary Oldman's peacock villain "Shen" in Kung Fu Panda 2 and five other nominees in that category. No, I don't know why there were so many nominees. There were twice as many in the television voicework category...14 nominees in one category? That is too much people, calm down. 

©Ty Templeton's "Bun Toons"

Parting Shot
Bun Toons comic strip about DC comic's decision to make Watchmen prequels. A must read if you're into comics or Watchmen in any iteration. It applies to basically anything re: Fans Who Loved Too Much.