Oscar Prediction Updates Galore ~ Halfway Mark!

In the upcoming week(s) we'll take a look back through the first half of the film year (and try to tie up loose ends from 2011. I know I know. I have time management issues). But what of the 2012/13 Oscar season? The term halfway mark is completely deceiving when it comes to awards season. We're not at all halfway to Oscar. In fact we've only just begun. We've seen a few mainstream genre pieces that are likely to factor in at least a little (The Avengers, Brave,  Prometheus) but this weekend brings us our first orphan Best Picture contender in the critical darling Beasts of the Southern Wild. We're not at all halfway through the real contenders but since we're halfway through the calendar, it's time to update the charts. 

BEST PICTURE and DIRECTOR
With Gravity pushed back to 2013, let's bet on the other big budget big risk, Ang Lee's adaptation of Life of Pi. The website to that film is up and running now and I keep hitting refresh to watch the tiger's leap and roar. Roooooowwr. Reload. Roooooowwwr. Reload. Roooowwwwrr. Reload. It thrills me every time. I blame my love of both cats and Oscar punditry multiplied by OCD. 

ACTOR, ACTRESS, SUPPORTING ACTOR, SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lots of shuffling on these charts, particularly within both supporting categories. Those players don't come into easy focus until the fall. Newbies on these big charts include the first time actors who play father/daughter in the riveting Beasts of the Southern Wild (interviews real soon), Michelle Pfeiffer in People Like Us (just discussed), Michael Fassbender in Prometheus (just discussed), Isla Fisher from The Great Gatsby and Matthew McConaughey from Magic Mike. Lots more on that film coming which wasn't quite what I was expecting but which I thoroughly enjoyed.

FOREIGN FILMS new chart!
Denmark's  A Royal Affair made big waves at Berlinale and its easy to picture a sumptuous expertly acted costume drama winning AMPAS attention. Cannes hits from lauded auteurs like Haneke, Mungiu, Audiard and Garrone could also be submitted from their countries though it's far too early to know. Any other suggestions? 

And more... VISUAL and AURAL CATEGORIES see gains for Life of Pi and The Avengers the latter of which is probably too big now to ignore at $600 million even though Oscar hasn't been crazy about superhero flicks. Beasts shakes up the adapted SCREENPLAY chart but the original screenplay category is a complete mystery. It's anyone's guess.

There's no changes to the ANIMATED CHART because, quite frankly, I lost the thread there. I've only seen Brave this year. Make more of an effort with the toons, I must.

As always your armchair punditry is welcome in the comments. Where am I off base? Which hunches do you think are smart ones? Make your case or describe what you see in your crystal ball.  

Pfeiffer Next Pfriday... "People Like Us"

I'm not supposed to talk about the movie yet but Pfans rejoice. I can't resist telling you that Michelle Pfeiffer enters the new drama People Like Us with a bracing cold snap. The movie has been racing along rather manically to set up its plotty-plot-plot and suddenly she's there slapping it with a "snap out of it!" move. Settle down, movie, settle down. 

Pfeiffer's Confession in PEOPLE LIKE US

She's wonderful in it. Three friends were seen afterwards arguing about how wonderful and no one agreed. Friend A: She's special in it if you haven't seen her seminal performances. Friend B: I thought she was great but there's no part... ugh, there's no part! Friend C: [unintelligble drooling] Pffeifffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffferrrr.

I confess. Friend C was me. (I'm not especially verbal immediately post-screening.) My point: It's easily her best work since Chéri. Not that there's been much work since Chéri. Shut up!

Pfeiffer hits the media circuit (Good Morning America) to promote People Like UsBut as for her current state of work. She promises more now that the empty nest looms in just one year's time. She recently made a rather grandiose statement in a Zap2It interview...

I’m always feeling that my best performance is still in me. And I think all artists feel that whether you’re a painter, actor, a musician — I hope so. I think it’s what keeps me going... I’ve noticed a lot of people who win the Academy Award — Best Actor, Best Actress — they go through a long period where they don’t work for a while and I worry about them. There’s sort of that wanting to achieve that, which keeps you going, and then when you achieve it, it’s like, ‘Well, what now?’ I don’t ever want to lose that fire that I have for it.”

Pfeiffer talking Oscar? Whoa. In a better entertainment world, that'd be leading story everywhere.

If this quote is indication, something has shifted in her headspace. I like to imagine that it was that campaigning for Jeff Bridges' Career Oscar (aka Crazy Heart) a few years ago. Does this mean we'll see her chasing the gold man again in prestige pictures and meatier roles?  I've learned not to expect too much face time from the elusive goddess but it sure would be a welcome sight.

Are you planning to see People Like Us? Or are you waiting for a great picture or a great role before welcoming her back.

All This, and Linking Too

Matt Patches gives us the best news of the day for New Yorkers. The Alamo Drafthouse is coming.
Lists of Note Preston Sturges "11 rules of box office appeal" Tee hee.
Cinema Blend new details on Matt Damon's Promised Land. It involves fracking.
Scanners a wonderful interview with Bette Davis circa 1988. She would have turned 104 this weekend.

Pajiba the highest grossing female led action films (not adjusted for inflation)
akslkgkdsl 
The Awl unanswered questions about teen movies. Here's a sample:

Say Anything…: How many times did Lloyd use the boombox trick in future relationships, and was his song selection always “In Your Eyes,” or did it change to reflect the current hits?

Tom Shone on the Titanic 3D conversion. I love Tom Shone.

Finally Boy Culture reminded me of this  year old interview with one of my favorite character actresses (and incidentally one of my favorite lesbians) Miriam Margolyes. I love her in everything -- remember how fun she was lusting after The Bening in Being Julia?. She is hilarious and she was totally dissing the Oscars for their big stars in supporting categories problem.

It was a very good film called The Age of Innocence and I was marvelous in it. I was! The reason I wasn't nominated was because of WINONA RYDER AND I DON'T LIKE HER! What happened was she was nominated as a supporting actress instead being nominated as a leading actress. If she'd jolly well kept herself to herself and been a leading actress, they would have nominated me as supporting. I was livid."

April Foolish Predictions: The Supporting Categories

Nowhere is the "April Foolish" descriptive more appropriate than in the Supporting Categories. They're generally the last major categories to clear up in each Oscar race since so much rides on the success of a film and/or its leading players. Coattails are often required even if the performance is great all by its lonesome. Witness the sad fate of Vanessa Redgrave's Coriolanus performance in the last race. She was easily the greatest but barely any awards group noticed since reviews for the film were lukewarm and it was barely released at that.

Vanessa Redgrave and Terence Stamp are old married in "Song for Marion"

Redgrave might be in play again this year, though, with a warmer title role in Song For Marion. The last time she was in the Oscar race (20 years ago) she was playing a dying woman who worked as a catalyst for the protagonist's emotional journey and the same is probably true here in this film about her husband (Terence Stamp) who joins the church choir to please her. The supporting categories are often home to heartwarmers like that and they're much kinder to senior actors as well so the cast of Quartet (Maggie Smith, Tom Courtenay, Billy Connolly and Pauline Collins) Dustin Hoffman's directorial debut about retired opera singers, might win kudos too.

If Oscar wants to lean darker -- they love villains in both of the supporting categories -- they might latch on to the sure to be controversial Django Unchained but it's worth noting that Pulp Fiction is the only Quentin Tarantino film that has managed multiple acting nominations. So it's anyone's guess as to who will be named "best in show" this time out but my money is currently on the villain (Leonardo DiCaprio) and his captive (Kerry Washington) 

Crowded Films
We can't possibly know this early on who the standouts will be in various crowded films but we can guess. Ben Affleck's Argo, Kathryn Bigelow's Zero Dark Thirty, and Steven Spielberg's Lincoln might be key films to watch for the Supporting Actor category since they all involve dangerous military operations and the cast lists are deep. Les Misérables will undoubtedly be the film that will spark the most early discussion about the Supporting Actress category since Anne Hathaway, Amanda Seyfried, Samantha Barks and Helena Bonham-Carter will all have key moments they can own.

Can David O. Russell get two of his supporting ladies nominated again? The Silver Linings Playbook has Jacki Weaver and Jennifer Lawrence

Double Dipping?
Oscar has really gone crazy for doubling up in Supporting Actress this past decade. It just keeps happening that two actresses are nominated from the same film. Two more films which might be in play for the ol' twice over are Hyde Park on Hudson (The Olivias, Williams and Colman) and David O. Russell's The Silver Lining Playbook (with previous nominees Jennifer Lawrence and Jacki Weaver)

Can all those "Rampart" raves, help Woody Harrelson in his next role as a dog-loving mobster?
The April Foolish Predictions...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
See where they rank: Amy Adams, Redgrave, The Bening, JLaw hot off Hunger Games, Mary Todd "Sally" Lincoln, Nicole Kidman, The Olivias and the Les Mis girls.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
See where they rank: All those men still waiting for a win like Leo, Woody & Joaquin, plus previous winners Lee Jones, Waltz, and many more.

Naturally you'll want to sound off on all the wonderful possibilities. Which performances do you have warm fuzzy hunches about? Which performances do you think I'm overestimating?

Link Window

Empire Nicole Kidman to play Grace Kelly... circa 1961, in the Monaco years
Stranger Than Most enjoys an unbeatable double feature
Cineuropa remember that Danish film A Royal Affair that made a stir at Berlinale? It's now one of the biggest selling Danish films ever. It's already sold to 76 markets. Can't wait to see it.
Cele|Bitchy Charlize Theron goes Vogue

Awards Daily mesmerizing Rear Window timelapse video 
La Daily Musto on Jeremy Renner's response to the gay rumors. (The end is priceless)
IndieWire box office winners and losers of the first quarter in the specialty market. Go A Separation! 
MNPP balloon men on Michael Bay sets
The Wrap Lindsay Lohan's transformation in 60 seconds 
Movie|Line 9 unbearable theme songs to movies in honor of Titanic's "My Heart Will Go On" 
Eric Orchard Veruca the Werewolf from Buffy hardly gets any attention.

And finally... I don't know how I missed this but this actressexual imitates all 75 supporting actress winners in 6 minutes.